What if all Studios went neutral?

[BStroms]

I've been quietly reading these forums for quite some time now and I've found that there are quite a few posters who wish that all studios would just go neutral and let the consumer decided which format to support. So I thought it an interesting "what if" problem. Imagine tomorrow morning all studios (even Sony by some miracle) announced complete neutrality. All titles would be released on the both formats on the same day from here on out. How do you think the war would play out?


Myself, I see an epic price war as the average consumer won't care (even if they understood) about the remaining differences between the players. Eventually one side would give up the game of financial chicken and fold leaving a winner. Even in this case, I don't really see the market deciding so much as it coming down to which executive loses his nerve.


Might be a good way to get a cheap player, but I wouldn't dare buy many discs, as I wouldn't have a clue who would end up winning in that case.

In general, I'm not too fond of this idea. The current situation lets me feel confident enough I know which format is going to win that I'm not afraid to build up a High-Def library (and even if I'm wrong, ignorance is bliss and I'm still enjoying the movies now worry free)

[Silver]

bluray wouldnt survive

HD DVD=CHEAP
BLU RAY=NOT CHEAP

to the average joe, why spend 600-1000 bucks on blu ray when you can spend 200-400 on HD DVD with the same movie options.

my personal opinion

[divian]

It depends on when it happens.
If it happens tomorrow...
Sony would be in a serious situation because they would need to start a real race on hardware price in order to win. They are obviouslynot ineterested on getting to that point and that is why they have tried to buy time.

[pkremer]

The major advantage HD-DVD has is its much lower price.

The major advantage Blu-Ray has is superior studio support.

If all studios were to go neutral, Blu-Ray would lose...you would have taken its major strength away. Why pay that kind of money for the same thing?

I am not sure how I feel about this idea...Blu-Ray would obviously have to bring their prices down, and once they did neither side would have an advantage, which means the war might never be over, and both formats would survive. I can see 2 formats surviving with different content, but 2 formats with the same content? Seems redundant to me.

[BStroms]

In reply to comments about Blu-ray not being able to compete because its higher prices, I think Sony and other Blu-ray player manufacturers don't find it necessary to try to match HD DVD player prices because Blu-ray discs are selling well despite the difference in player pricing. If they couldn't use studio support to convince people to buy their products, they might be more inclined to cut prices more aggressively.

And I'm not certain whether or not the difference in player manufacturing cost is that substantial, but even if it is, it could largely depend on who on each side is willing to help subsidize player costs and how much.

[Cyborg]

bluray wouldnt survive

HD DVD=CHEAP
BLU RAY=NOT CHEAP

to the average joe, why spend 600-1000 bucks on blu ray when you can spend 200-400 on HD DVD with the same movie options.

my personal opinion

That should change by the end of this year, when Blu Ray players become much more affordable.

[imdaly]

That should change by the end of this year, when Blu Ray players become much more affordable.

...and HD DVD players will suddenly stop dropping in price?

[dolphinius_rex]

I've been quietly reading these forums for quite some time now and I've found that there are quite a few posters who wish that all studios would just go neutral and let the consumer decided which format to support. So I thought it an interesting "what if" problem. Imagine tomorrow morning all studios (even Sony by some miracle) announced complete neutrality. All titles would be released on the both formats on the same day from here on out. How do you think the war would play out?


Myself, I see an epic price war as the average consumer won't care (even if they understood) about the remaining differences between the players. Eventually one side would give up the game of financial chicken and fold leaving a winner. Even in this case, I don't really see the market deciding so much as it coming down to which executive loses his nerve.


Might be a good way to get a cheap player, but I wouldn't dare buy many discs, as I wouldn't have a clue who would end up winning in that case.

In general, I'm not too fond of this idea. The current situation lets me feel confident enough I know which format is going to win that I'm not afraid to build up a High-Def library (and even if I'm wrong, ignorance is bliss and I'm still enjoying the movies now worry free)

I can't answer this question. I'm sure people would like me to just say HD DVD, because it's cheaper. But there are way too many variables to consider. For starters, the whole BDA strategy would be completely different. Not to mention the whole mentality of the industry would be completely different.

An average consumer could look at this question and make a simple answer. But someone who looks at the whole picture just looks at this question and tries to imagine under what circumstances this could happen, and how to weigh what potential events could occur, and frankly you can't.

Maybe try a different scenario? Like what if Toshiba had given Fox permission to include a stronger level of copy protection on HD DVD, and not ostricized them from day 1, and managed to hold on to Disney by offering concessions on their business model (higher player costs, but more CE support). That kind of scenario is very very possible based on how things happend... it just didn't turn out that way. But under that condition, Fox and Disney would have been neutral or HD DVD exclusive from day 1.

[Kid Banana]

...and HD DVD players will suddenly stop dropping in price?

They can only drop so far. If they continue to drop at the rate they have been dropping at they will be giving them away free next summer.

[tranzparentl]

They can only drop so far. If they continue to drop at the rate they have been dropping at they will be giving them away free next summer.

That's why I think on the hardware side the format war is good for the consumer because it forces price drops on both sides.

Software side I'm not so sure as Fox and Disney have both lost faith in Blu-ray and are cancelling releases. They are more than likely waiting until more people are buying HD discs.

This puts a lot of pressure on Sony to keep their prices in line with Toshiba's and if they want to keep their lead they'll have to.

[Vriess]

HD DVD would win almost overnight. There would be absolutely no reason for people to spend another 200-300 dollars on the Sony hardware.

Sony doesn't like the consumer to choose because why would they choose an overpriced sony technology?

[Slartibartfast]

HD DVD would win almost overnight. There would be absolutely no reason for people to spend another 200-300 dollars on the Sony hardware.

Sony doesn't like the consumer to choose because why would they choose an overpriced sony technology?

Agreed, Sony knows that the only thing stopping a full scale stomping of BD is to keep subsidizing the PS3 and twist arms to prevent Disney and Fox going neutral.

Disney and Fox have done something worse than go neutral, they've gone away.

If Sony produces a cheap BD player for 499, Toshi will have one for 219. If sony go to 399, then the PS3 will falter worse and they'll PO Pioneer and Panasonic.

Sony made two errors: 1 they over-estimated sales of the PS3. 2 they underestimated how much Toshi would be willing to fight.

/one could say they also underestimated the buying public and HiDef.

[Cyborg]

They can only drop so far. If they continue to drop at the rate they have been dropping at they will be giving them away free next summer.

Exactly. Although I do expect HD DVD players to drop in price as well.

[winstonshu]

This is a question where the answers are -very- conditional, which kind of makes the question itself pointless IMO.

If all the studios announced that they're going format-neutral tomorrow, then yes, HD-DVD would win pretty much overnight. There's no way that the Blu-Ray camp can get their pricing ducks lined up in time to fight Toshiba's slash-and-burn pricing strategy.

However, that's obviously not even a remotely realistic scenario, regardless of how hypothetical it is. A much better question to ask is, if all the studios had been format-neutral from the start, and had committed to releasing for both formats, THEN how would the format war have evolved?

In this case, it's hard to believe that the Blu-Ray camp's strategy re: slowly finalizing standards and higher prices would have been the same, in which case, it's impossible to say how the war would have turned out.