Blu-ray Replication Capacity Growth Trends

[Kosty]

Thats not so much a tough translation from German to English as it is a translation of Engineer Speak into English.



Let me try to translate:

The thrust is that the new technology improvements in the creation of the PTM masters with that new mastering system allow better yields and faster production runs of dual layer Blu-ray Discs without as many random errors during production run, so that when tested fewer discs may fail and that overall yields and throughput times are increased.

[SRW1000]

So by March 31, 2009, they still had an order backlog of €52.2 million.

Yes, but this compares to a €109.9 million backlog a year earlier. More importantly, order intake has dropped from €84.4 million last year to only €17.4 million this year.

The report doesn't break these numbers down by division, so it's not really possible to say how it pertains to Blu-ray, but it does state, "There is brisk buying interest of our customers in terms of machines for the production of Blu-ray Discs. Difficult or lacking financing on the one hand and the uncertainty about the required capacity for 2009 on the other hand has currently lead to the postponement of investment decisions." (I had to type this by hand since the PDF is protected and didn't allow copying, so I apologize for any possible typos. Please click on this link to see the actual report.)

That's not good, but probably not all that much different than a whole bunch of other companies out there. The decrease in backlog is not a huge deal, but the slowing rate of incoming orders is a huge concern for any company.

Without new orders, the backlog will only continue to decrease.

Scott

[Kosty]

"There is brisk buying interest of our customers in terms of machines for the production of Blu-ray Discs. Difficult or lacking financing on the one hand and the uncertainty about the required capacity for 2009 on the other hand has currently lead to the postponement of investment decisions."

That does not sound bad for Blu-ray at all in this economic period as the 1Q 2009 was about the worst period in decades for making any investment decisions. With Blu-ray steadily increasing sales and the economic storm clouds clearing a bit over time those ROI decisions should get easier.

[SRW1000]

That does not sound bad for Blu-ray at all in this economic period as the 1Q 2009 was about the worst period in decades for making any investment decisions. With Blu-ray steadily increasing sales and the economic storm clouds clearing a bit over time those ROI decisions should get easier.

I thought the "uncertainty about the required capacity for 2009" portion of the statement was most applicable to this thread.

While it may not sound bad for Blu-ray, it doesn't sound good, either. This is certainly due more to the current economy than the format itself. If things turn around soon, you could expect companies to invest in more equipment. If things keep at the same pace, though, it's a whole different story.

Scott

[megsemmisítés]

No but Techicolor is adding capacity and Sony DADC still has the giant share of BD50 capacity that exists. Cinram is pretty much running its available BD50 lines full out despite this being the stage that DVD lines go dark for lack of work.

Maybe its an accounting thing or somehow is accounting for them adding capacity. They have more lines now than they did back then and they are running them harder so they are generating far more units. There must be some sort of lag or accounting offset in play.

Really? Can you explain why their North American high-definition disc revenue dropped 20% YoY?

Our high-definition disc sales decreased to $3.1 million in North
America from $3.8 million in the first quarter of 2008, as the 2008 figure included revenue from HD
DVD, a format that is no longer supported by Cinram’s studio customers.

Is all of that going to DADC? Or was HD-DVD a significant portion of their revenue in 1Q2008? (e.g. > 30%)

[mikemorel]

Singulus gives no guidance

Singulus published poor first quarter results, as noted at SG Private Banking. The turnover increased by 16.9%, but the loss amounted to EUR 0.16 per share.

The company is facing a serious decline (-79.4%) in contracts to the lowest level in the past 10 years.

First, the demand for machines for data storage fell by failure to include CD and DVD producers and the demand for solar equipment by weak financial problems with customers and overcapacity in the sector.

The company gives no perspective, but the SG Private Banking is clear that there should be a significantly lower volume (212.1 million EUR in 2008) and a loss in 2009.

Despite the debt-free balance sheet and the depressed share price performance SG Private Banking believes that better investment opportunities than Singulus ones. The analysts of the bank account of the advice to sell.

Has Singulus sold ANY blu-ray lines in 2009?

[towergrove]

Singulus gives no guidance

Has Singulus sold ANY blu-ray lines in 2009?

You fail to mention this part of the item you were quoting:

and the demand for solar equipment by weak financial problems with customers and overcapacity in the sector.


Singulus not only makes memory products but is also big in solar equipment. When energy prices fell so did the demand for the Solar equipment sector. This also is shown in this part of your quote:
"The company is facing a serious decline (-79.4%) in contracts to the lowest level in the past 10 years. "

Memory equipment isnt the only item that this company makes and is reflected in their bottom line.

[towergrove]

Singulus gives no guidance

Has Singulus sold ANY blu-ray lines in 2009?

Dunno and don't care

[towergrove]

Singulus gives no guidance

Has Singulus sold ANY blu-ray lines in 2009?

Really? Can you explain why their North American high-definition disc revenue dropped 20% YoY?

Is all of that going to DADC? Or was HD-DVD a significant portion of their revenue in 1Q2008? (e.g. > 30%)

Linky please?

[megsemmisítés]

Singulus gives no guidance

Has Singulus sold ANY blu-ray lines in 2009?

They seem optimistic...

There is brisk buying interest of our customers in terms of machines for the production of Blu-ray Discs. Difficult or lacking financing on the one hand and the uncertainty about the required capacity for 2009 on the other hand has currently led to the postponement of investment decisions. The company is satisfied with the technical performance of the BLULINE II irrespective of the current order activities for machines for the production of Blu-ray Disc. The delivered machines work technologically flawlessly and were clearly able to beat the competition in the market.

SORRY!! SRW1000 already provided part of this quote...so credit to him!

[megsemmisítés]

Linky please?

sedar filing...you'll need to click "Interim Financial Statements - English" and then go to the section on North America, top of page 10.

[towergrove]

sedar filing...you'll need to click "Interim Financial Statements - English" and then go to the section on North America, top of page 10.

Thanks megsemmisítés!

[jcc]

So, Singulus has a big drop in revenue due to lower CD, DVD and solar panel demand, and this is somehow a bad sign for Blu-ray, because it's sales have increased.

[Kosty]

Yep. thats the theory.

[Kosty]

Of course that theory, ignores the blatantly obvious fact that any company will shift its focus to the segment of its business thats growing and has the greatest potential for future revenues.

Just a hasty attempt to find bad news for Blu-ray.