Blu-ray Replication Capacity Growth Trends

[Kosty]

The only thing that would make sense is that Sony DADC did some of the Warner and Universal and other replication that Cinram would traditionally do. But I know thats not the case universally as I know some Blu-ray titles from their traditional studios that are being replicated in Olyphant, PA at the (former WEA) Cinram facility.

[comixguru]

Originally Posted by Kosty

Interesting to note that the biggest upside for the replicator was video games.

[mikemorel]

Originally Posted by Kosty

No but Techicolor is adding capacity and Sony DADC still has the giant share of BD50 capacity that exists. Cinram is pretty much running its available BD50 lines full out despite this being the stage that DVD lines go dark for lack of work.

Kosty from December 08:

You are right on target here.

Cinram has a lot more Blu-ray dual layer BD50 production capacity that came on line this year, and has a lot more inbound.

If Sony DADC was asked to step in and supplement the production , its only good news that the demand was anticipated to be that strong that they were asked to do so.

Thats good news for Blu-ray.

Originally Posted by kosty

Maybe its an accounting thing or somehow is accounting for them adding capacity. They have more lines now than they did back then and they are running them harder so they are generating far more units. There must be some sort of lag or accounting offset in play.

Kosty from March 09:

I believe part of the issue is that now all of the revenue from their 4Q production was booked in that quarter, some of it may have bled into this year

Kosty again from December 08:

Those [17] Blu-ray BD50 lines at Cinram and more are now working 24/7 producing DB50 discs.

A lot of the older DVD lines surge to meet seasonal demand.

Only thing that has some truth is that they have more than enough DVD capacity to meet demand, They are converting floor space to Blu-ray production to meet skyrocketing Blu-ray demand and they can't get as many new machines as they want.

What in the world gave you the idea that their Blu-ray capacity is idle? Thats so divorced from reality that you are so clueless there that I'm just astounded there. Even for you thats so wrong its ..... I don;t no how to describe it.

Still waiting for that huge Cinram Quarter you have been promising, and promising, and promising, since the war ended.

Cinrram - $4 million in quarterly bd revenue. Layoffs. Plant closings.

Singulus - 50 million euro loss in 2008. Impairment charges. Goodwill writeoffs. Layoffs.

Technicolor - Thomson, Technicolor's parent blamed a nearly 31% year-over-year drop in profit due largely to lower worldwide volumes and price declines in physical medias, not offset by the growth in Blu-ray and distribution. For 2008, Technicolor’s DVD replication volume was down 5%, and Thomson posted a loss of $2.49 billion.

No one is making money on BD replication. No one is even replicating large quantities of BD discs, other than Sony DADC.

Massive Kosty BS.

[Rob71]

Originally Posted by mikemorel

Still waiting for that huge Cinram Quarter you have been promising, and promising, and promising, since the war ended.

Cinrram - $4 million in quarterly bd revenue. Layoffs. Plant closings.

Singulus - 50 million euro loss in 2008. Impairment charges. Goodwill writeoffs. Layoffs.

Technicolor - Thomson, Technicolor's parent blamed a nearly 31% year-over-year drop in profit due largely to lower worldwide volumes and price declines in physical medias, not offset by the growth in Blu-ray and distribution. For 2008, Technicolor’s DVD replication volume was down 5%, and Thomson posted a loss of $2.49 billion.

No one is making money on BD replication. No one is even replicating large quantities of BD discs, other than Sony DADC.

Massive Kosty BS.

First off with this post you have to have a massive pair to call BS on anyone. Of course you did preface it by letting us know it was made up BS.

In this post all you've proven is the DVD production boon is over and all these companies see a future in BD production. And you've proven yourself wrong in your own writings. As per your usual style.

[Thulium]

Is it possible that replication revenue only went up a small amount because the going price of replication services went down?

[Kosty]

Originally Posted by Thulium

Is it possible that replication revenue only went up a small amount because the going price of replication services went down?

Thats certainly part of it. They are doing a tremendously higher unit volume but their revenues per unit dropped a lot from 2007 and 2008.

But the cost is now stabilized at that lower level and they should be able to sustain that revenue per unit with some attrition. So future quarters especially 4Q 2009 should show more revenue growth and 2010 to 2009 show be more substantial as well.

But yes, its entirely possible they doubled or even tripled their Blu-ray unit output despite not making much more revenue than the previous year.

In the out years as Blu-ray continues to grow , both the revenue growth and unit production growth should be more in sync.

One other thing, just because revenues were similar does not mean their profitability was similar. Their costs for Blu-ray replication have gone way down since last year as yields have continued to improve.

Like retailers Blu-ray for Cinram is a growing enterprise that is growing and has future growth potential.

But yes, Sony DADC has far more BD50 capacity than either Cinram or Technicolor or the smaller firms do at this time.

[mikemorel]

SINGULUS TECHNOLOGIES announces first quarter figures 2009

SINGULUS TECHNOLOGIES AG / Quarter Results
07.05.2009

Release of a Corporate News, transmitted by DGAP - a company of EquityStory AG. The issuer / publisher is solely responsible for the content of this announcement.

Press Release

SINGULUS TECHNOLOGIES announces first quarter figures 2009 - Sales 35.4 Mio. EUR in the first quarter - EBIT decreased to -4.9 Mio. EUR - Gross profit margin improved significantly to 33.2 % - Order intake was weak at EUR 17.4 million

Kahl am Main, May 07, 2009. The business results of the 1st quarter 2009 of the SINGULUS TECHNOLOGIES AG (SINGULUS) reflect both the impacts of the current global economic crisis as well as the specific situation of the optical disc and solar industries. Sales of EUR 35.4 million in the 1st quarter 2009 were higher compared with the same quarter of the previous year (EUR 30.3 million). In the 1st quarter 2009 earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) in the amount of EUR -4.9 million (previous year EUR 0.3 million) were realized. This included restructuring charges of EUR 3.0 million related to the reduction of employees. In 2008, the slightly positive EBIT of EUR 0.3 million in the 1st quarter included a one-time positive earnings effect of EUR 15.6 million(extraordinary gain in connection with the first-time consolidation of the Blu-ray activities acquired from the Oerlikon Balzers AG).

The operating expenses (before extraordinary items) improved substantially in the 1st quarter 2009 compared with the prior-year period. The expenses for Research & Development, Sales & Marketing, Service and Administration declined by nearly 20 % to EUR 13.4 million. The order intake was weak at EUR 17.4 million (previous year: EUR 84.4 million).

The gross profit margin improved significantly to 33.2 % compared with the previous year (21.7 %) and reflects the high share of Blu-ray and Solar equipment of overall sales.

The company reduced the headcount at Kahl am Main by 54 employees as of April 30, 2009. Further 36 employees were laid-off at international subsidies. Since February 1, 2009 SINGULUS introduced short-time work in Kahl am Main.

Due to the weak order intake in the first months of the current business year and the general uncertainties regarding the development of the global economy, SINGULUS cannot rule out a negative impact on the core activities Optical Disc and Solar for the business year 2009.

Stefan A. Baustert, CEO of SINGULUS TECHNOLOGIES AG :'It is our goal to position the company well for the future with a clear focus on the core activities Optical Disc and Solar as well as with strict cost management. Both the market for production machines for solar cells and the market for Blu-ray production lines are young markets, which in our opinion will start to grow sharply in the next couple of years. With our new products we see ourselves well positioned for the future.'

. SINGULUS Group Figures IFRS (unaudited)


1. Quarter 2008 2009 Sales Mio. EUR 30.3 35.4 Order intake Mio. EUR 84.4 17.4 Order backlog 31.03. Mio. EUR 109.9 52.2 EBIT Mio. EUR 0.3 -4.9 EBITDA Mio. EUR 9.9 0.2 Net profit Mio. EUR 0 -6.1 Earnings per share EUR 0,01 -0.16 Employees 31.03. 758 684


Short Profile SINGULUS TECHNOLOGIES AG

SINGULUS TECHNOLOGIES is market leader for Blu-ray Disc and DVD/CD production lines and is the only manufacturer globally to offer the complete range of products: mastering, molding and replication lines.

With the acquisition of the STANGL Semiconductor Equipment AG SINGULUS successfully entered the solar equipment market. The new business area Solar will be strongly expanded in the next couple of years.

Doesn't it cost like $3-$5 million to buy a blu-ray replication line? Order intake of 17 million euros in 1st quarter includes DVD replication lines. And 1st Quarter is the time to get your orders in to Singulus, as they have to manufacture, test, deliver, install and get them up and running for the 3rd quarter replication orders to be ready for holiday buying.

Yet Almost NOBODY is buying blu-ray replication lines. Why?

Well, Sony DADC subsidization of major movie studio would be the easy answer. But I believe the answer might be more "complicated"...

[Thulium]

So Mike, since Singulus' profits are down because of the economy, what do you suggest they do? Drop or de-emphasize Blu-ray that is responsible for the increase in gross profit margin?!? Should studios take money out of Blu-ray replication and throw more at the withering DVD format or waste money trying to force people into less profitable distribution models such as DD?

[Grubert]

Originally Posted by mikemorel

Quarter 2008 2009
Order backlog 31.03. Mio. EUR 109.9 52.2

So by March 31, 2009, they still had an order backlog of €52.2 million.

[Kosty]

Originally Posted by Grubert

So by March 31, 2009, they still had an order backlog of €52.2 million.

too good to not post

From the very first hit on Google for "order backlog" from a company called EADS, but seems to be applicable here

Order Backlog

Year-end order backlog represents firm future revenues from contracts signed up to that date. EADS uses order backlog as a measure of commercial performance, and growth of EADS’ order backlog is an ongoing goal of Management. Only firm orders are included in calculating order backlog – for commercial aircraft, a firm order is defined as one for which EADS receives a non-refundable down payment on a definitive contract not containing a “walk-away” provision. Defence-related orders are included in the backlog upon signature of the related procurement contract. Commitments under “umbrella” or “framework” agreements by governmental customers are not included in backlog until they are officially notified to EADS.

For civil market contracts, amounts of order backlog reflected in the table below are derived from catalogue prices, escalated to the expected delivery date and, to the extent applicable, converted into Euro (at the corresponding hedge rate for the hedged portion of the flows, and at the year-end spot rate for the non-hedged portion of the flows). The amount of defence-related order backlog is equal to the contract values of the corresponding programs.

http://www.reports.eads.net/2003/ar_...id=b_1_2_1_3_1

Singulus probably uses a similar methodology, so those "order backlogs" are firm orders they probably have for Blu-ray replication lines but have not delivered yet.

http://arstechnica.com/gadgets/news/...unterparts.ars

Old link had European executive saying back on April 18, 2007. Prices have probably fallen since then. € 52.2 divided by € 1.4 each is 37.3 machines on order

One executive said that a Blu-ray replication line costs between €1.7 million and €1.8 million

[Kosty]

In 2008, the slightly positive EBIT of EUR 0.3 million in the 1st quarter included a one-time positive earnings effect of EUR 15.6 million(extraordinary gain in connection with the first-time consolidation of the Blu-ray activities acquired from the Oerlikon Balzers AG).

The operating expenses (before extraordinary items) improved substantially in the 1st quarter 2009 compared with the prior-year period. The expenses for Research & Development, Sales & Marketing, Service and Administration declined by nearly 20 % to EUR 13.4 million. The order intake was weak at EUR 17.4 million (previous year: EUR 84.4 million).

The gross profit margin improved significantly to 33.2 % compared with the previous year (21.7 %) and reflects the high share of Blu-ray and Solar equipment of overall sales.

So lets see. They got a one time earnings bonus for acquiring their only European competitor for Blu-ray replication lines, they are mostly finished with the sunk costs of Blu-ray R&D costs, and are expecting and already experiencing higher profit margins in the Blu-ray business (gross profit margin improved significantly to 33.2 %) that is over 10% higher in profit than their previous year.

Then they add this statement:

Both the market for production machines for solar cells and the market for Blu-ray production lines are young markets, which in our opinion will start to grow sharply in the next couple of years. With our new products we see ourselves well positioned for the future.

Sounds pretty good for me.

[Grubert]

Originally Posted by Kosty

From the very first hit on Google for "order backlog" from a company called EADS, but seems to be applicable here

"A" company? EADS is the company that makes Airbus airplanes.

[Kosty]

Doesn't it cost like $3-$5 million to buy a blu-ray replication line?

No

Order intake of 17 million euros in 1st quarter includes DVD replication lines.

Pretty much no one is buying DVD lines anymore and they are now cheap. Used ones can be had for a song, so that market has dried up as well as CD lines.

Even at 1.4 - 1.7 m each thats 10-12 new orders for Blu-ray lines, besides their existing orders.

[Kosty]

Originally Posted by Grubert

"A" company? EADS is the company that makes Airbus airplanes.

Thought you might catch that.

I was waiting for him to say that it was a tiny company and would not be applicable here.

Same accounting circumstances. They are taking orders for advanced technology machinery that takes a long time to build and deliver and they are a European source for North American delivery.

[comixguru]

Interesting article on BR replication improvements from Singulus. Feels like it is translated into English.

CrystalLine Mastering System offer Improvements for Dual Layer Blu-ray Disc Master

CrystalLine Mastering System offer Improvements for Dual Layer Blu-ray Disc Master
Posted May 7, 2009

By deploying alternative methods in write strategy optimization, supported by continued developments on the sputtering system and improvements on the developer unit, the CrystalLine PTM mastering system from SINGULUS MASTERING, Eindhoven, is now able to produce masters for Dual Layer Blu-ray Disc replicas that have excellent jitter figures for both Layer 0 and Layer 1.

Bottom jitters far beyond 5% are achieved, meaning over 2 and 3.5% lower than required by the BD specification. Also other disc parameters, such as asymmetry and RSER are well within specification for Dual Layer Blu-ray Disc. Instrumental in this breakthrough was the SINGULUS MASTERING R&D and process development team, supported by the in-house electroforming department and assistance from SINGULUS TECHNOLOGIES in Kahl.

During MediaTech Europe 2009 in Frankfurt full reports on the results are presented and samples will be made available. Meanwhile SINGULUS MASTERING is gearing up for pre-acceptance of the next CrystalLine, just after MediaTech.

Also this machine will be able to produce stampers at a very competitive price level, ensuring highest return on investment - now and in the future.

Background
Using the Phase Transition Mastering (PTM) Process, the new system offers a perfect solution to the challenging requirements of Dual Layer Blu-ray Disc mastering.

Similar to the traditional Singulus Mastering photoresist mastering systems, the CrystalLine is designed as an inline, fully automated mastering platform, based on the principle of "fresh substrate in – finished master out". The CrystalLine contains a single chamber – three target sputtering unit developed by the parent company SINGULUS TECHNOLOGIES AG, Germany, which has a long experience in the development of sputtering technology. This sputtering unit deposits the PTM material on the glass substrate.

The essential difference in the recording of a PTM layer in comparison to the Photoresist layer is that during recording of the PTM layer heat is induced to the sensitive layer of the substrate.

Already in the design of the CrystalLine, the phase of the product cycle where the production will reach high volumes has been anticipated, enabling a profitable operation of the system now – and in the long term future.