2009 Blockbusters that should be huge on Blu-ray

[C.S.Strowbridge]

With Paul Blart about a week away from hitting $100 million for the year, it's time to look at the upcoming hits for 2009 and which ones should perform well at the box office...

http://www.the-numbers.com/interacti...hp?newsID=3928

January...

Paul Blart: Was a shocking hit, I'm still at a loss to explain it. That said, I don't think it will do well on Blu-ray. 10% sales in High definition would be amazing for this type of comedy.

http://www.the-numbers.com/interacti...hp?newsID=3995

February...

I don't see a single $100 million hit from this month. I don't eve see any that will really come close.

http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/release.php

March...

Watchmen: Might get there, and it should have strong sales in High Definition even if it doesn't.

Race to Witch Mountain: Has a shot at reaching the century mark. However, even with a high level of special effects, it is a kids movie and won't do well in High Definition.

Monsters vs. Aliens: Will top Paul Blart at the box office, and could reach $200 million if it gets lucky. But even with a digital transfer that should be worthy of five stars out of five, it won't be a massive seller on Blu-ray.

April...

The Fast and the Furious 4: After the last one bombed, I have little hope for this film.

Dragonball Evolution: Depends on the Fanboys vs. Mainstream Appeal. However, could have better than average Blu-ray success.

Hannah Montana the Movie: The opposite of the above. Has a real shot at $100 million, but its prospects on Blu-ray are limited.

May...

X-Men Origins: Wolverine: First $300 million hit of the year? Could top The Dark Knights Blu-ray records.

Star Trek XI: I want this film to succeed so much, that my judgment might be tainted.

Angels & Demons: Strong box office numbers, weak Blu-ray sales.

Terminator Salvation: The Future Begins: The franchise needs a re-boot, but will moviegoers care? Still, made for Blu-ray.

Night at the Museum 2: Escape from the Smithsonian: Could beat Terminator at the box office, but not in High Definition.

Up: And the Oscar goes to... Okay, that might be a little premature, but I think it will be a big hit and will do better than most CG animated movies on Blu-ray.

June...

Land of the Lost: Barely a $100 million hit. Not sure of its Blu-ray prospects. (Think Journey to the Center of the Earth.)

Imagine That: Might not suck.

The Proposal: Unlikely to hit $100 million, and RomComs don't do well on Blu-ray.

The Hangover: "SOMEBODY LEFT A BABY!" "IGNORE ME!"

Year One: Midlevel comedy.

Tooth Fairy: Huh?

The Haunting in Connecticut: Midlevel horror.

Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen: Biggest hit of the year? Biggest hit on Blu-ray ever?

July...

Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs: Potentially the biggest kids movie of the year. Still not a massive seller on Blu-ray.

Public Enemies: Awesome cast. Not a major Blu-ray player.

Bruno: Not as big as Borat.

Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince: $300 million? Major seller on Blu-ray thanks to the Fanboys and girls.

G-Force: No.

August...

G.I.Joe: Looks bad. Should still make $100 million at the box office and sell well on Blu-ray.

Shorts: Looks good. Might hit $100 million like Spy Kids 1 & 3 did, but it won't sell well on Blu-ray.

September...

No $100 million hits.

October...

Where the Wild Things Are: First big hit of the fall? But it is a family film, and it won't sell well on Blu-ray.

Astro Boy: Too soon to tell.

November...

Disney's A Christmas Carol: Could do well in theatres, but don't see it being a big seller on Blu-ray.

The Fantastic Mr. Fox: Kids movie. Will sell tickets, but not Blu-rays.

The Wolf Man: Coming out right near Thanksgiving. If it doesn't make at least $150 million, it will be seen as a disappointment.

New Moon: Not as big as Twilight, but still a hit in theatres and likely on Blu-ray.

Planet 51: CG animation for kids. Hit theatrically, but not on Blu-ray.

December...

Avatar: Big risk. Could be the biggest hit of the fall. Could bomb.

The Chipmunks: God help us all.

The Princess and the Frog: Another kids movie, which means high ticket sales, low Blu-ray sales.

[C.S.Strowbridge]

I decided to use the second post to list the films that did make it to $100 million, and perhaps later I'll update that list with the Blu-ray numbers

Note: I apologize for the lack of updates in this thread. Work and computer crashes hit me hard, then I just forget, then I was too embarrassed about the lack of updates to update. (That final excuses it pretty stupid I admit.)

January...

Paul Blart - Mall Cop = Reached $100 million during its fifth week of release. Still don't see it doing huge business on High Definition. Maybe 10 to 12 percent of total sales.

Taken = Reached $100 million during its 29th day of release, which is exactly as long as it took Paul Blart. Should be the best selling Blu-ray release from 2009 so far.

February...

No films released this month will reach $100 million.

March...

The Watchmen his $100 million 21 days into its run, which is faster than the previous two films managed, but it is dying fast. $110 million might be out of reach. That said, I still think this will be a huge seller on Blu-ray, and could come close to Iron Man, Indiana Jones, etc.

Monsters vs. Aliens opened with $55 million. Hit $100 million in just 10 days, and ended its run with just under $200 million. It is a kids movie, but it should still do relatively well on Blu-ray. Perhaps the 3-D aspect will help out.

April...

Fast and Furious earned $30 million during its opening day and reached $100 million in just nine. However, it fizzled fast after that. Even so, should be a big seller on High Definition.

May...

Wolverine - Opened with $85 million and reached $100 million in just seven days. However, didn't make it to $200 million. Even so, it should sell 1 million units in Blu-ray, especially if it is the first summer blockbuster to reach the home market.

Star Trek - Didn't open as fast, but had legs most movies would kill for. Reached $100 million in 7 days and $200 million in 22. Add in all of the Trekkies, and this movie should break records for Blu-ray.

Angels & Demons - Weaker than its predecessor. It did earn $100 million after 16 days of release, but I don't see it doing as well as...

Terminator Salvation - A disappointment at just $123 million and it took 17 days to reach nine digits. That said, it is the visual effects heavy film that does well in High Definition. At least compared to its theatrical numbers.

Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian - $54 million opening & $100 million in just 10 days should help. However, it's a kids movie with weak reviews. Good sales, but not great sales.

Up - Second biggest Pixar hit of all time. This movie opened with $68 million, reached $100 million in 8 days, $200 million in 21. It should please kids, families, and adult animation buffs. Could sell 1 million units.

June...

The Hangover - Arguably the biggest surprise of the year. $45 million opening, but hit $100 million in 10 days and $200 million on 30. You don't need to see a movie like this in High Definition to appreciate it, but even 10% market share could help it sell 500,000 units opening week and 1 million in total.

The Proposal - Should reach $100 million on its 20th or 21st day. However, it's a Rom Com and I can't see it being a huge seller on Blu-ray. Not unless the market share for the format reaches 30% or more before it hits the home market.

Transformers - $100 million in 3 days, $200 million in 5, $300 million in 14. The perfect film for Blu-ray in terms of visuals, but a terrible, terrible movie. That said 1 million units opening week is practically guaranteed.

Ice Age 3 - Weaker than expected, but still reached $100 million in 10 days. Held up a little better than expected, but $200 million is going to be tough to reach.

Public Enemies - Fell a little faster than I would have liked, but could still reach $100 million. Not enough visual effects to be a big seller on Blu-ray.

[MarekM]

Wow. Longer post than I was planning on. Any hits I'm missing? Any misses I'm overestimating?

maybe TAKEN with nice friday drop and next weekend with 4 days will have a chance to make 100mil. and maybe it can have a nice blu-ray performance..

Marek

[Llamadeus]

I hope Fast and Furious isn't terrible.

I enjoyed the first one back in high school when it first came to theaters. I haven't seen it since, and I didn't care for the second and third ones at all. I'm sure it is nostalgia more than anything, but I'm hoping for it to be fun.

Also, I don't see Crank 2 on your list? You might have skipped it on purpose, I'm sure it won't be a huge hit and they wouldn't have to try hard for it to suck.

It doesn't look like a very promising year overall, but there is still a handful or more I want to see.

[fitprod]

Astro Boy: Too soon to tell.

Uh... Actually, it's not too soon to tell on this title. DOA. Igami ran out of funding last week 1/28/09 and laid off the animation staff.

http://www.deadlinehollywooddaily.co...off-animators/

They were hoping for a bridge loan this week, but I don't believe anything came through.

Off the top of my head, the top 5 at the end of the year Blu-ray wise should be the following:

1. Transformers 2
2. Watchmen
3. Terminator Salvation
4. Quantum of Solace
5. Wolverine
Wild Card... G.I. Joe. It really depends on whether the movie is better than expected.

All of these should be a minimum of 25% - 30% of total disc sales.

I think you're selling the animation/kids category a little short. We should have an indication of where we are with this stuff after the release of Kung Fu Panda.

fitprod

[itrush07]

Hmm, looks like too many blockbusters are coming out.. hope to have as many as possible, it's my only way of unwinding after a long hours of work..

[bboy412]

So will watchmen be able to break Dark knight's opening week record when its released on blu-ray in late summer.

[MarekM]

So will watchmen be able to break Dark knight's opening week record when its released on blu-ray in late summer.

no way (but over all I am sure it will do more then 1mil units), and I can see Transformers 2 breaking that record...

Marek

[Gargamel]

I'm a bit unsure about how Watchmen will be received in the marketplace. WB has done a great job creating buzz, the visuals look incredible, and it seems to be staying close to the imagery and story itself, but from start to finish the storyline is convoluted and has many characters and situations that are intertwined. It may be overkill for anyone other than comic book fans. I can see the initiated walk out of the theater when the credits roll, shrug their shoulders and say, "Huh?"

Stan Lee said there were certain stories only the comics could bring you. Alan Moore himself didn't write Watchmen with the big screen in mind. I am just unsure about how this will translate for the general public. Many of us will love seeing Watchmen played out in live action with modern CGO effects, but it may be a bit much for the general public. Look at how much they have cut out already, like the Tales of the Black Freighter. Of course they have found a way to make it a variant of a double dip by releasing it separately...

Am I alone in thinking that the ending to the graphic novel kind of sucked? Not the final panels, but the last two books which revealed what was going on the whole time? I still enjoyed the graphic novel overall but the ending left me wanting something better.

Finally- we won't know how good it is until we actually see it. If this is a Speed Racer redux that would really suck...

[chowdachad]

Wait Friday the 13 could do really good so throw that in February

[comixguru]

Missing from the list is the Apatow written/directed comedy Funny People starring Adam Sandler. This one will do well at the box office, I think.

Am I alone in thinking that the ending to the graphic novel kind of sucked? Not the final panels, but the last two books which revealed what was going on the whole time? I still enjoyed the graphic novel overall but the ending left me wanting something better.

Watchmen in the end chapters moves away from being a interesting mystery plot, witty examination of superheroes, and an exercise in 9-panel comics. Moore turned to making a statement about the world around him. The natural progression of greed, corporate take over of the reins of power, and misguided social responsibility.

In those last two chapters, the metaphors fly fast and leave comics and the murder investigation behind. The book is highly prophetic. Political corruption (Nixon as the icon of this) would be outdone by corporations and misguided ambitions. Corporate greed will lay waste to modern society not unlike war (see Nazi metaphors). Moore may have been onto something there.

IMO, no way this one is going to beat the Dark Knight in any way. TDK was something else. Watchmen is just another comic movie.

-comix

[Menaceuk]

Terminator
X-men
Transformers

Those will all be huge.

Watchmen
Fat and furious
Night at the museum
Monsters vs aliens

Have a good chance of being huge

Not too sure about the rest

[Mike171979]

I'm looking forward to Public Enemies the most probably. I think with Johnny Depp's success with the Pirates franchise, just having him in a July Summer Blockbuster will guarantee 200 Million, no matter what the movie is about.

[space-monkey]

The chances of a Wolverine spinoff, from a franchise that has never come close to 300M, to cross 300M, is insane. It'll sell well on BD, but it won't even approach TDK's audience, even with the expanded userbase.

X2 made 214. Wolverine won't cross 170M.

[kowhite]

I'm looking forward to Public Enemies the most probably. I think with Johnny Depp's success with the Pirates franchise, just having him in a July Summer Blockbuster will guarantee 200 Million, no matter what the movie is about.

It's a period gangster picture. I expect it to do well, but 100 million seems like a more reasonable target, as opposed to 200 million. The film as far as I can tell, doesn't seem to really have that broad a demographic appeal...so I doubt Depp can take it that far. But you never know. But Depp has only seen one other film do 200 million without a Pirates name attached, and that was something with a little more broad appeal I'd say (Charlie and the Chocolate Factory).

Who knows though...it'd be great to see Mann really knock it out of the park commercially speaking.