2009 Blockbusters that should be huge on Blu-ray

[C.S.Strowbridge]

Originally Posted by comixguru

Taken, amazingly, to be second January release to top 100M, just a matter of when.

And Taken is the kind of film that should do well on High Definition.

[kowhite]

Originally Posted by C.S.Strowbridge

On the other hand, if Madea Goes to Jail tops studio estimates, it will have a shot at $100 million.

It'll be interesting to see. The title certainly draws on a fanbase, so might be a bit front loaded. But the film still saw incraeses friday to saturday, so it's possible. It'll be interesting to see how he audience plays on this one in the long run. I'm thinking personaly, it'll fall short...probably hit the $90M range I think. It'll certainly hold better than F13.

[ack_bak]

Originally Posted by C.S.Strowbridge

And Taken is the kind of film that should do well on High Definition.

Agreed. I think this movie will do very well on Blu-Ray. I know I will be picking up a copy

[ack_bak]

Originally Posted by kowhite

It'll be interesting to see. The title certainly draws on a fanbase, so might be a bit front loaded. But the film still saw incraeses friday to saturday, so it's possible. It'll be interesting to see how he audience plays on this one in the long run. I'm thinking personaly, it'll fall short...probably hit the $90M range I think. It'll certainly hold better than F13.

On a personal note I was shocked at how well "Paul Blart" has done at the box office, and now "Madea". I was also very surprised at the first week numbers for Friday the 13th, but not as surprised with the dropoff.

I also don't think Madea will crack the $100 million mark, but it will probably come close.

[C.S.Strowbridge]

Originally Posted by kowhite

It'll be interesting to see. The title certainly draws on a fanbase, so might be a bit front loaded. But the film still saw incraeses friday to saturday, so it's possible. It'll be interesting to see how he audience plays on this one in the long run. I'm thinking personaly, it'll fall short...probably hit the $90M range I think. It'll certainly hold better than F13.

Agreed. I predict $90 to $95 million. Granted, that's close enough to $100 million that the studio might try and push it over the top.

[comixguru]

Originally Posted by ack_bak

Agreed. I think this movie will do very well on Blu-Ray. I know I will be picking up a copy

This is one that will do especially well, I think, if they release the right set of features with it. For instance, international and US cut on the same disc, seemless branching. Having a new version, even if the changes are minor, will move extra discs and bring people back perhaps for a rental.

FYI, this one is out on Blu-ray overseas already (Region B locked in UK and France).

[C.S.Strowbridge]

Just working on the March preview, and it with the strength in the overall box office, all three potential $100 million hits this month should get there. In fact, two of them could reach $200 million.

Granted, only one of those will be a hit on Blu-ray, but still, it can't hurt.

[comixguru]

I finally saw Coraline in 3D. Man, this 3D stuff is really good. Katzenberg in the DWA Q4 call says that 80% of the ticket volume for Coraline is on the roughly 1000 3D screens. Impressive, I think.

Monsters Vs. Aliens will do well in the theaters if they have enough 3-D screens to support big grosses. The latest trailer for that movie is great: action-packed, funny, fun, and full of great 3-D visuals. Can't wait myself.

[fugazied]

X-men will continue to be a huge money maker, Wolverine has great writers on board (the key element), good cast, so it should be a solid movie and will be a must have for the comic fans = $$$$.

[C.S.Strowbridge]

Originally Posted by comixguru

I finally saw Coraline in 3D. Man, this 3D stuff is really good. Katzenberg in the DWA Q4 call says that 80% of the ticket volume for Coraline is on the roughly 1000 3D screens. Impressive, I think.

Monsters Vs. Aliens will do well in the theaters if they have enough 3-D screens to support big grosses. The latest trailer for that movie is great: action-packed, funny, fun, and full of great 3-D visuals. Can't wait myself.

I'm hoping tax rebates will increase Blu-ray adoption, which will help these two films on the home market.

Coraline deserves to sell 1 million units on Blu-ray.

I'M NOT SAYING IT WILL. THAT WAS NOT A PREDICTION.

[C.S.Strowbridge]

Final weekend in February was terrible, but still ahead of last year's pace. That said, no films released during the month will reach $100 million.

[comixguru]

Taken takes in about 10M this past weekend. Man, this movie has played well in the weak Jan-Feb release months. Interesting that He's Just Not That Into You and Coraline continue to hang on well, likely with so little competition.

Watchmen has the weekend, really, to itself next week. Predictions? Biggest March opening was 300 with 70M. I'm biased, I don't think I can predict this one accurately. I'm hoping for a new record, and given the build up to this one... it's possible. My bias prediction, 75M.

[C.S.Strowbridge]

Watchmen... I'm going with $55 million opening weekend, $155 million total.

I think the word of mouth will counteract the Fanboy Effect.

[ack_bak]

"300" grossed $210 million in 2007. My guess is that "Watchmen" will not beat that. The initial reviews of this movie seem rather mixed, but I still think it will gross about $170-180 million.

[comixguru]

Originally Posted by C.S.Strowbridge

Watchmen... I'm going with $55 million opening weekend, $155 million total.

I think the word of mouth will counteract the Fanboy Effect.

Yeah, I just checked reviews on Watchmen. Wow, that's quite bad. Metacritic - 30/100. Still, I'll stick with my estimate. I love being wrong.

You're probably right here on word of mouth. Early word, this may have little appeal to those who don't know the heritage.

Still, I'm tempered by the fact that even 10,000 B.C. opened in March last year to $35M and did $94M domestic total. Amazing to note that 10,000 B.C. did $175M outside the US. I wonder if Watchmen will fare well in UK, France, Japan... interesting to see.