2009 Blu-ray Sales Metrics Stats: Nielsen/Videoscan/HMM Charts/Ratios/Bestsellers Etc

[Kosty]

Blu-ray's revenue market share has been increasing versus DVD since Christmas.

The BD/(DVD+BD) revenue column which shows the Blu-ray market share has risen to 14.44% to 15.48% the last couple weeks, the highest since Ironman's release week of 10/05.

So even though both DVD and Blu-ray have seen significantly less volumes in those first week after Christmas, Blu-ray has gained some market share on DVD. Both formats went down, but Blu-ray has went down far less than DVD.

That would also seem to indicate that Blu-ray will have a significantly higher year to year increase over Jan 2008 to Jan 2009 and a far higher year to year comparison than what DVD would have over the same period.

[Kosty]

http://www.videobusiness.com/article...?desc=topstory

2008 Home entertainment spending down 5.7%
Blu-ray, downloads growing but can't offset DVD's fall

By Susanne Ault -- Video Business, 1/16/2009

JAN. 16 | The worst recession in decades took its toll on U.S. home entertainment spending in 2008, as it did on virtually every consumer goods category. Although not proving recession-proof, the home entertainment industry did show some resilience, with consumer spending on rentals and purchases of DVD and Blu-ray Disc falling a relatively moderate 5.7% to $21.7 billion, according to VB analysis of data provided by major studios.

In addition, consumers spent $488 million on digital rentals and purchases of films and TV shows over the Internet, according to Adams Media Research, up 73% from 2007.

When digital, including cable VOD, is factored into the 2008 picture, home entertainment consumer spending was off just 3.5% from the prior year, according to studios.



Although consumer spending on DVD rentals at bricks-and-mortar stores, kiosks and online was flat at $7.6 billion, rental transactions inched up 1.8% to 2.6 billion, according to Rentrak. (Click for Top 20 DVD Renters.)

Meanwhile, consumer purchases on both formats slid 8.5% to $14.1 billion, with Blu-ray’s exponential sales growth unable to fully counterbalance slippage of more than 10% in DVD sales.

Fourth-quarter new release spending alone dropped about 15% from 2007, according to Sony Pictures Home Entertainment.

Blu-ray sales represented about $750 million in 2008, according to studio estimates. Adams Media Research, however, put total spending on the format higher, at $901 million, including $270 million in rental.

Studio video chiefs acknowledge that the overall drop in consumer spending is the steepest year-to-year slide for the home entertainment industry since DVD launched in 1997. But the important thing, they say, is to keep this performance in the right perspective.

“This is a down year in the worst economic situation since the Great Depression, and with DVD maturing and still being in the early phases of Blu-ray, we feel really good about our position,” Warner Home Video president Ron Sanders said. “The economic crisis did seem to have some impact on our DVD business, where it hit certain titles and didn’t hit others, but in general, we felt the year went pretty strong.”

Warner’s The Dark Knight, released in December, is poised to become the studio’s No. 1 or 2 seller of all time, even though it launched as layoffs and home foreclosures steadily mounted nationwide.

Nevertheless, the year’s relatively light holiday retail traffic did have an adverse effect on DVD.

“Since we are a high impulse category, we have fewer opportunities to convert people,” Universal Studios Home Entertainment president Craig Kornblau said. “There are less people going to retail. And there is no question that this is challenging.”

Studios are determined to make the most of the upside potential in Blu-ray and digital formats.

“Digital [Web-]delivered revenue has been doubling for us each year, and it will double again in 2009 over 2008,” said Steve Beeks, Lionsgate president and co-chief operating officer. “I think it’s definitely becoming easier for people. Broadband speeds are increasing. And the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 have very healthy businesses.”

Consumers downloaded more than 2 million episodes of Lionsgate’s TV shows Mad Men and Weeds. On the film side, certain Universal titles, including Forgetting Sarah Marshall and Mamma Mia!, scored a milestone 100,000 download transactions each.

Beeks said that Lionsgate will keep nurturing its digital business by doubling the 450 available studio films for download/streaming in 2009. Currently, the studio holds 10,000 titles in its library.

Although Blu-ray is not growing fast enough to stem growth losses from standard DVD, studio chiefs are pleased with the traction Blu-ray is gaining with consumers.

“We have definitely seen more families embrace Blu-ray technology this year more than ever,” said Lori MacPherson, Walt Disney Studios Home Entertainment general manager of North America. “While there has certainly been a strain on the overall economy, especially for consumers, home entertainment still provides an economical and affordable choice for families.”

The studio believes its WALL-E was the year’s third best-selling Blu-ray, behind No. 2 Iron Man (Paramount Home Entertainment) and No. 1 The Dark Knight. (Click for Top 20 DVD Sellers.)

Studios also claimed individual 2008 victories. Paramount landed the most titles in the year’s Top 10 bestsellers: Iron Man, DreamWorks Animation’s Kung Fu Panda, Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull and Bee Movie. Sony’s Hancock enjoyed persistent fourth-quarter sales, with a decay curve that was less than normal for most titles, according to the studio.

The general consensus is that 2009 will be a transition year, with another single-digit percentage setback in DVD/Blu-ray spending. Studio chiefs are cautiously optimistic that the industry should rebound to growth in 2010.

Blu-ray titles will have another strong year, lifting to $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion in 2009 revenue, according to Warner. That would mark at least double 2008’s haul.

For the overall industry, “we project a low-to-mid single-digit decline in the 3% to 6% range [excluding digital],” Warner’s Sanders said. “That does depend on how well Blu-ray can offset the natural decline of DVD. I think the wild card is the economy.”

Sony president David Bishop added,” We were pleased with the growth rate out of Blu-ray, and we are projecting it will continue to be a bright spot for the industry. But there is no question that people are buying less across the board.”

[Kosty]

Blu-ray titles will have another strong year, lifting to $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion in 2009 revenue, according to Warner. That would mark at least double 2008’s haul

Thats an estimate of $1.5 Billion to $2.5 Billion for Blu-ray sales for 2009.

[bomba]

So we will have until 4/27 to start comparing YoY growth? Bah.

Not exactly thrilled with the minimum baseline of Warners prediction either. Shouldn't $2B be a low bar to cross?

[Stryydr]

Originally Posted by bomba

So we will have until 4/27 to start comparing YoY growth? Bah.

Not exactly thrilled with the minimum baseline of Warners prediction either. Shouldn't $2B be a low bar to cross?

1.5 Billion appears to be pretty decent to me (that's twice this years sales). Furthermore, why over predict what might or might not sell. Seems that'll just set the format up for naysayers to say that it didn't reach it's target.

Personally, if the format can reach 2.5 billion (on the high side of that prediction) that would be amazing.

[Kosty]

Originally Posted by bomba

So we will have until 4/27 to start comparing YoY growth? Bah.

Not exactly thrilled with the minimum baseline of Warners prediction either. Shouldn't $2B be a low bar to cross?

I have already calculated out some unit sales figures for 1/06/08 through 4/27/08 based on the three unit sales graphs that HMM released through 2008.

Using a average per unit calculation factor I can easily get an estimate for revenues for each month. Since weeks very a little each month the monthly stats can have a different number of weeks, but we should be able to see some quarterly trends.

Week to week year to year comparisons always are a bit flaky as they are generally release dependent. It gets less variable when you look at month by month , wuartery or year to date trends.

Or just look at the data as a long graph.

[Kosty]

Well if DVD sales are going to be 10 Billion or less , 2.5 Million would be 25% of that or even more.

[jpb123]

Originally Posted by Stryydr

1.5 Billion appears to be pretty decent to me (that's twice this years sales). Furthermore, why over predict what might or might not sell. Seems that'll just set the format up for naysayers to say that it didn't reach it's target.

Personally, if the format can reach 2.5 billion (on the high side of that prediction) that would be amazing.

With 11 of the last 14 weeks being 10+% and DVD likely to do almost exactly 20 billion in 2009 if the current trend continues. Would not 2 billion for blu-ray mean that blu-ray would have to loose market share the rest of the year NOT to reach 2 billion?

[jpb123]

Originally Posted by Kosty

Well if DVD sales are going to be 10 Billion or less , 2.5 Million would be 25% of that or even more.

What am I missing? In post #25 DVD has 21.6 billion for 2008. How could it go down to 10 billion 2009?

[Kosty]

Originally Posted by jpb123

What am I missing? In post #25 DVD has 21.6 billion for 2008. How could it go down to 10 billion 2009?

Well that was for both rental unit bulk sales and sell through consumer purchase revenue for both DVD and Blu-ray for 2008, as reported by DEG. Some people don't like lumping in the revenues for rental units in with consumer sales.

But you are right , consumer spending on DVD only purchases were probably well over $10 billion for 2008. Order of magnitude for the HMR reported DVD weekly sales based on Nielsen/Videoscan first alert sales numbers for DVD as reported by Home Media Magazine each week (which does include a plus up estimate for the 40% market share of Wal-Mart for DVD sales) was around $10 Billion.

We get those figures each week as part of the HMM pie chart.

[Kosty]

Originally Posted by jpb123

With 11 of the last 14 weeks being 10+% and DVD likely to do almost exactly 20 billion in 2009 if the current trend continues. Would not 2 billion for blu-ray mean that blu-ray would have to loose market share the rest of the year NOT to reach 2 billion?

Depends on how you take into account sales to rental chains.

But yes, you are again correct in seeing that 10-15% or greater Blu-ray market share would lead to an even larger number.

But that 10-15% is top 20 unit market share. The revenue share should be getting that strong as well, and is likely to raise even more in the next few months.

If the Blu-ray market share is reaching 20-30% by the end of the year, thats an even bigger number.

I don't think there is any scenario where Blu-ray's market share is not going to rise in 2009 compared to its 2008 market share.

[neone]

Originally Posted by Kosty

Depends on how you take into account sales to rental chains.

But yes, you are again correct in seeing that 10-15% or greater Blu-ray market share would lead to an even larger number.

But that 10-15% is top 20 unit market share. The revenue share should be getting that strong as well, and is likely to raise even more in the next few months.

If the Blu-ray market share is reaching 20-30% by the end of the year, thats an even bigger number.

I don't think there is any scenario where Blu-ray's market share is not going to rise in 2009 compared to its 2008 market share.

The only titles that are still lagging in their BD ratio sales are the comedies, romance, child-friendly movies, and even then, their ratios are improving dramatically over 2008. (edit : wall-e might be an exception to all of the above as it seems to have done well [and it's child-friendly, a comedy, sort of a romance [of sorts]]).

It's a visible trend that after IronMan, all of the action blockbusters BD's are coming in at 15% and above, and following these rations shows this is clearly on an uptrend.

[bluskiessmingatme]

homemediamagazine.com is reporting that Dark Knight has regained the number one Blu slot for the week:

Tyler Perry Tops Sales

By Thomas K. Arnold | Posted: 22 Jan 2009
tarnold@questex.com


Tyler Perry’s The Family That Preys helped the franchise regain some of its momentum, as the DVD release of the Lionsgate film shot to the top of the national home video sales chart its first week in stores.

The comedy, which grossed $37.1 million in U.S. theaters, topped a slate of mid-range theatricals. My Best Friend’s Girl ($19.2 million), also from Lionsgate, debuted at No. 3 on the Nielsen VideoScan First Alert sales chart for the week ended Jan. 18, even though it sold less than half as many copies as The Family That Preys.

The 20th Century Fox horror film Mirrors ($30.7 million) bowed at No. 4 on the sales chart, while the Warner/New Line Western Appaloosa ($20.2 million) entered at No. 5.

Sony Pictures’ Pineapple Express slid to No. 2 on the sales chart but retained its top slot on Home Media Magazine’s rental chart for the week, followed by My Best Friend’s Girl at No. 2. Anchor Bay’s Righteous Kill slipped from No. 2 to No. 3 its second week in stores, while fourth place on the rental chart went to Mirrors.

Of the other new releases, The Family That Preys debuted at No. 7 on the rental chart and Appaloosa, at No. 9.

On the Blu-ray Disc sales chart, also from Nielsen VideoScan, Warner’s The Dark Knight regained the No. 1 slot yet again, even though it’s been out since early December. The film had slipped to No. 2 the previous week, briefly losing ground to Pineapple Express, which is now No. 2.



http://homemediamagazine.com/researc...ps-sales-14386

[Lee Stewart]

^^^^^

BD releases for Jan. 13, 2009

http://formatwarcentral.com/2009/01/...eases-1-13-09/

[BettiePage]

Wow talk about a crappy release list.