2009 Blu-ray Sales Metrics Stats: Nielsen/Videoscan/HMM Charts/Ratios/Bestsellers Etc

[Kosty]

Okay now this chart makes sense to me. It has always confused me. So your saying the DVD overlay is to reflect the simularities between the slope of DVD vs. BD not directly referencing the numbers?

Yes. By adjusting the scale between DVD and Blu-ray, you can see the seasonal trends. Normally the DVD trend from year to year would be a close match as they are on the same scale, so you can see that the slope for DVD is declining slightly as DVD sales have declined. Blu-ray at the same scale would be hard to compare. So by adjusting last years Blu-ray scale (actually by changing the DVD scale) so that the 2008 Blu-ray line is close to the DVD magnitude, you can see some relative movement.

In fact Blu-ray for 2008 is just carrying along near the 2008 and 2009 DVD trends seasonally until Oct, then clearly the 2008 Blu-ray kicks up at a change rate (slope) thats seasonally well above the seasonal DVD rate. Of course, the 2009 Blu-ray rate is showing all year in 2009 that Blu-ray is accelerating as its slope is steeper and its growth rate is even steeper still in the 4Q 2009. Thats implying that growth is happening thats other that just seasonality.

But we already know that Blu-ray's ownership base is rapidly expanding, more titles at cheaper prices are at retail, more PS3 owners are buying movie software, etc, so its no surprise its like that at all. What actually is neat, is the comparison between 2008 and 2009 Blu-ray.

[Kosty]

Kosty - had the big push by Sony for BD started? I've only seen one commercial (the $1,100 off if you buy a PS3 + TV + BD + PS3 Game). It seems like Warner is talking more about Blu-ray than Sony (HP6 Chat).

I know the Sony and Disney ad campaigns have already started. Most brand campaigns start a little later than retailers ones each season. But I think most would have by now with a big push a week from now or this weekend.

[cakefoo]

Yes. By adjusting the scale between DVD and Blu-ray, you can see the seasonal trends. Normally the DVD trend from year to year would be a close match as they are on the same scale, so you can see that the slope for DVD is declining slightly as DVD sales have declined. Blu-ray at the same scale would be hard to compare. So by adjusting last years Blu-ray scale (actually by changing the DVD scale) so that the 2008 Blu-ray line is close to the DVD magnitude, you can see some relative movement.

In fact Blu-ray for 2008 is just carrying along near the 2008 and 2009 DVD trends seasonally until Oct, then clearly the 2008 Blu-ray kicks up at a change rate (slope) thats seasonally well above the seasonal DVD rate. Of course, the 2009 Blu-ray rate is showing all year in 2009 that Blu-ray is accelerating as its slope is steeper and its growth rate is even steeper still in the 4Q 2009. Thats implying that growth is happening thats other that just seasonality.

But we already know that Blu-ray's ownership base is rapidly expanding, more titles at cheaper prices are at retail, more PS3 owners are buying movie software, etc, so its no surprise its like that at all. What actually is neat, is the comparison between 2008 and 2009 Blu-ray.

I can't remember who it was, but someone/group of someones were whining about how they felt you were intentionally misleading them with that growth chart, and were just trying to present charts that made Blu-ray look better than DVD.

The same people latch onto the following chart, preferring to squint to see Blu-ray's 145% cumulative YTD growth



ONLY 5 PIXELS OF GROWTH! BLU-RAY IS DOOMED!

[Kosty]

I can't remember who it was, but someone/group of someones were whining about how they felt you were intentionally misleading them with that growth chart, and were just trying to present charts that made Blu-ray look better than DVD.

The same people latch onto the following chart, preferring to squint to see Blu-ray's 145% cumulative YTD growth



ONLY 5 PIXELS OF GROWTH! BLU-RAY IS DOOMED!

I'm not hiding any data certainly not any ones with DVD sales in proportion to Blu-ray that clearly show that DVD is an order of magnitude higher.

Every week I have 10 charts for units and 10 charts for revenues that show the DVD and Blu-ray magnitudes in full scale.

Its an obvious fact that DVD is much larger, although at Blu-ray rate of growth Blu-ray is already becoming a significant portion of the packaged media market and and 10-20% marketshare is hardly insignificant now, especially since Blu-ray is more profit per unit sold than a typical DVD transaction many of which are heavily discounted.

[neone]

I can't remember who it was, but someone/group of someones were whining about how they felt you were intentionally misleading them with that growth chart, and were just trying to present charts that made Blu-ray look better than DVD.

The same people latch onto the following chart, preferring to squint to see Blu-ray's 145% cumulative YTD growth



ONLY 5 PIXELS OF GROWTH! BLU-RAY IS DOOMED!

It' a perspective question. Two yrs ago, when reading some very clear double standards for comparing blue sales growth and red sales growth, I made a joke on AVS about how a stack of lego bricks can look taller than any skyscraper if you look at it from the right perspective, and angle.... and if you're willing to stoop low enough.

The data was very clear in what the trend is, but some people chose to ignore the seasonal factor and make up stuff just to change their perspective.

As the year progressed, and the yoy changes were still very clear even in the weak summer doldrums, the population of participants willing to continue to change their perspective -- ie: people willing to stoop that low, decreased steadily, to the point past the tipping point. We're basically at the water is boiling, frog is dead phase of the relative merits of the discussion now, and changing goalposts just aint going to cut it anymore.

[Kosty]

We're basically at the water is boiling, frog is dead phase of the relative merits of the discussion now, and changing goalposts just aint going to cut it anymore.

I find it mildly entertaining. But its not for those guys that I take the time to create the charts and graphs and post updates on a weekly basis.

[jiggawhat]

I'm not hiding any data certainly not any ones with DVD sales in proportion to Blu-ray that clearly show that DVD is an order of magnitude higher.

Every week I have 10 charts for units and 10 charts for revenues that show the DVD and Blu-ray magnitudes in full scale.

Its an obvious fact that DVD is much larger, although at Blu-ray rate of growth Blu-ray is already becoming a significant portion of the packaged media market and and 10-20% marketshare is hardly insignificant now, especially since Blu-ray is more profit per unit sold than a typical DVD transaction many of which are heavily discounted.

It's pretty ridiculous actually. I mean anyone with half a brain can see DVD has revenues that tower over DVD on your charts. This especially holds true on the stacked chart of DVD + BD.

[Kosty]

It's pretty ridiculous actually. I mean anyone with half a brain can see DVD has revenues that tower over DVD on your charts. This especially holds true on the stacked chart of DVD + BD.

It you look at that graph compared to the overlaid chart, the stacked graph actually visually understates Blu-ray's contribution especially when there is a big spike up or down as the stacked Blu-ray volume gets spread like butter over the contours or the DVD growth. It would be easier to see it as a stacked bar chart, but I like those area charts that put these into perspective and the two together work well to see the relationship. Also over time you can see that the blue Blu-ray icing on the redish colored DVD cake is getting thicker as time goes on.




The visual effect is even more pronounced with the top 20 units charts

(BTW those are only updated through 11/15/09 as of today) as The-Numbers is supposed to have the data for 11/22 and 11/29 up soon.)

[Noobie]

Btw some people have raised the point that Blu Ray growth was going along smothly but in Oct 09 it suddenly spiked a lot. So wot is the reason.? are there any big movies released starting from Oct.? or some promotion was kicked in for Blu Ray push or the retailers played some part.? or lastly n maynot be leastly the price drop of PS3 in september had its effect when people started using blu ray functionality of PS3.?

or u think its the combination of all.? but still i will like to know wot u think is the biggest reason for this sudden spike in Blu Ray sales.?

[Kosty]

Btw some people have raised the point that Blu Ray growth was going along smothly but in Oct 09 it suddenly spiked a lot. So wot is the reason.? are there any big movies released starting from Oct.? or some promotion was kicked in for Blu Ray push or the retailers played some part.? or lastly n maynot be leastly the price drop of PS3 in september had its effect when people started using blu ray functionality of PS3.?

or u think its the combination of all.? but still i will like to know wot u think is the biggest reason for this sudden spike in Blu Ray sales.?

All of the above.

Plus these factors off the top of my head. Its not even a complete list, I'm sure others can add more.

Seasonal factors include better movie releases and holiday hardware buying.

Lower prices for software and hardware at retail.

Blu-ray finally hitting consumer friendly price points.,

Existing PS3 and Blu-ray hardware owners seeing cheaper movies and more titles on display.

Impact of advertising.

More $299 PS3 sales and $149 Blu-ray sales leading to a growth in the number of Blu-ray owners willing to buy more Blu-ray movies.

Initiatives and marketing and promotional and advertising campaigns like Disney Snow White DVD + Blu-ray combos highlighting the Blu-ray format.

Increase in the number of HDTVs and increasing HDTV sales where a Blu-ray player is a logical choice.

Success at Wal-Mart Best Buy Sears K-Mart Target et al at promoting Blu-ray in there weekly sales circulars.

Increasing studio manufacturer and retailer promotional campaigns timed for this time of year.

Retailers and manufacturers providing Blu-ray player and HDTV bundles.

All of the above combining together now leading to a virtuous circle where more Blu-ray hardware owners buy more software leading to more Blu-ray titles at better prices being displayed at retail leading to more Blu-ray owners leading to more retail support leading to more Blu-ray owners etc.


All of those factors hit together with critical mass during this time of the year.

[Noobie]

All of the above.

Plus these factors off the top of my head. Its not even a complete list, I'm sure others can add more.

Seasonal factors include better movie releases and holiday hardware buying.

Lower prices for software and hardware at retail.

Blu-ray finally hitting consumer friendly price points.,

Existing PS3 and Blu-ray hardware owners seeing cheaper movies and more titles on display.

Impact of advertising.

More $299 PS3 sales and $149 Blu-ray sales leading to a growth in the number of Blu-ray owners willing to buy more Blu-ray movies.

Initiatives and marketing and promotional and advertising campaigns like Disney Snow White DVD + Blu-ray combos highlighting the Blu-ray format.

Increase in the number of HDTVs and increasing HDTV sales where a Blu-ray player is a logical choice.

Success at Wal-Mart Best Buy Sears K-Mart Target et al at promoting Blu-ray in there weekly sales circulars.

Increasing studio manufacturer and retailer promotional campaigns timed for this time of year.

Retailers and manufacturers providing Blu-ray player and HDTV bundles.

All of the above combining together now leading to a virtuous circle where more Blu-ray hardware owners buy more software leading to more Blu-ray titles at better prices being displayed at retail leading to more Blu-ray owners leading to more retail support leading to more Blu-ray owners etc.


All of those factors hit together with critical mass during this time of the year.

Definitely u r right.. But its very rare to see a certain point so clearly distinguishable from normal growth.. If you look at Sep-08 to Dec-08, u will see that there was up n down sort of curve.. lot of factors were present then too.. but still we see spike up n spike down around start of Nov.. But here we r continuously seeing a spikes from Oct to start of Dec. i will like to see how the spike look at the start of Jan.

SO thats make it a very interesting case.. PS3 slim sold like almost a 1.5 Million in Sept-Nov 2009 in NA. which is more than the first 8 Months of 2009. So if we know how many Blu Ray players were sold on average per month than we can maybe see the effect of Blu Ray in PS3. Although PS3 is a gaming machine by default but i m sure after the advertisement a lot of awareness is there abt the PS3 blu Ray capability n majority of these buyers are going to use this capability one day or the other. So if we assume 40% (thats totally a rough guess) are going to become new Blu Ray buyers than this means around 600k new Blu Ray buyers in these 3 months.

So if we know the Blu Ray player sales in NA for Sep-Nov 2009 than we can see if it is really a significant new increase. ( i think if 600k constitute over 30% of blu ray player sales than it is really a significant sales).

ps. I used the estimates of NPD for Sep n Oct PS3 sales in USA. Nov 09 Sales for PS3 are guessed after Sony said that 440k were sold on blackfriday week, so i assumed another 250k must have sold during the remaining 3 weeks of Nov 09.

[Kosty]

I think your above thoughts are correct in their order of magnitude and I think Blu-ray sales of more than a million set top boxes in the 4Q 2009 already is starting to show up in the software sales stats.

[Kosty]

HMM article that gives some Black Friday info:

Blu-ray was 14% of Warner's home media revenue for that week and Warner's year to year growth was enough that 2009 Blu-ray revenues were four times its 2008 Black Friday week sales.

Future of Film Panelists Mark Black Friday Successes


By : Chris Tribbey | Posted: 08 Dec 2009
ctribbey@questex.com


SANTA MONICA, Calif. — Mike Horak, president of Warner Home Video Americas, has a message for those who keep talking about home entertainment as if it’s dead.

“The demise of the home entertainment business has been vastly overstated and over-reported,” he said, speaking at the Future of Film Summit Dec. 8. “I think they’re just looking for a story.”

Studio representatives acknowledged that DVD sellthrough has been on a downslide, but that new avenues of getting entertainment to the masses have been opening up regularly.

“You can’t discount the economy,” said Simon Swart, EVP and GM North American for 20th Century Fox Home Entertainment, adding that just two years ago jobs at the studios were going unfilled. “We’ve got unemployment in the teens; 30% [of consumers] are distressed.”

John Rubey, president of digital entertainment company AEG Network Live, suggested that “DVD [is] a victim of its own success.” Consumers have become so used to having the content they want, thanks to DVD, that now they want it in a number of forms from a number of outlets, he said.

The story the media did pick up was the Black Friday success of both Blu-ray Disc players and software, he and other panelists agreed.

“For those of you shopping on Black Friday, you saw most of the crowd in the back [near DVDs, Blu-rays and electronics],” Horak said.


He said Blu-ray Discs accounted for 14% of Warner home media sales during the week of Black Friday, and Blu-ray catalog titles sold four times as well during that week compared to the same week in 2008.

“The retailers were very aggressive with pricing,” he said. “They stepped up and really supported the format.”

But while the high-def format got a push from deep-discounted discs and cheap hardware, physical media is facing more challenges than ever, panelists agreed. Horak said that consumers’ first decision is whether they want to rent or own, and then they decide whether they want the content on a disc or not.

“We have to be open to new business models,” Swart said. “When you look beyond packaged media, I see nothing but opportunity.”

He suggested the home entertainment industry take a long look at the screens in Best Buy, and not just the HDTVs, but the mobile phones and other, smaller electronic devices.

“We have to create business models that fit every one of those screens,” he said.

Blair Westlake, VP of Microsoft’s media and entertainment group, said the biggest challenge content owners face is the breadth of available outlets for media.

“You’re competing with yourself,” he said, noting that consumers have spent 15 million hours on Netflix via the Xbox 360. “The amount of choices just goes on and on. The real challenge now is [to find] the business model that makes sense.”

That thought was seconded — and backed up with data — by Jamie McCabe, EVP of worldwide PPV, VOD and electronic sellthrough for Fox. He said that year-over-year VOD has been up 100%, mostly through cable outlets. “[And] the Internet is upping the ante for everybody,” he said.

[Malanthius]

HMM article that gives some Black Friday info:

Blu-ray was 14% of Warner's home media revenue for that week and Warner's year to year growth was enough that 2009 Blu-ray revenues were four times its 2008 Black Friday week sales.

“We have to be open to new business models,” Swart said. “When you look beyond packaged media, I see nothing but opportunity.”

He suggested the home entertainment industry take a long look at the screens in Best Buy, and not just the HDTVs, but the mobile phones and other, smaller electronic devices.

“We have to create business models that fit every one of those screens,” he said.

Blair Westlake, VP of Microsoft’s media and entertainment group, said the biggest challenge content owners face is the breadth of available outlets for media.

“You’re competing with yourself,” he said, noting that consumers have spent 15 million hours on Netflix via the Xbox 360. “The amount of choices just goes on and on. The real challenge now is [to find] the business model that makes sense.”

That thought was seconded — and backed up with data — by Jamie McCabe, EVP of worldwide PPV, VOD and electronic sellthrough for Fox. He said that year-over-year VOD has been up 100%, mostly through cable outlets. “[And] the Internet is upping the ante for everybody,” he said.






Sounds like he's saying home entertainment isn't dead. They just have to look beyond package media. I guess they see digital distribution as the real future. I would always like a physical copy. But like I've been saying. Except for you guys here, I'm one of the few in my circle that still buys physical media. I admit i'm the minority these days. Most I know are content to just catch it on TV or maybe rent. Forget about them buying catalog again. Pretty much goes with what I see for BR's future. Moderate growth that will slow way before reaching DVDs kind of success. I just hope we all get the biggest titles on BR.

[Kosty]

“We have to be open to new business models,” Swart said. “When you look beyond packaged media, I see nothing but opportunity.”

He suggested the home entertainment industry take a long look at the screens in Best Buy, and not just the HDTVs, but the mobile phones and other, smaller electronic devices.

“We have to create business models that fit every one of those screens,” he said.

Blair Westlake, VP of Microsoft’s media and entertainment group, said the biggest challenge content owners face is the breadth of available outlets for media.

“You’re competing with yourself,” he said, noting that consumers have spent 15 million hours on Netflix via the Xbox 360. “The amount of choices just goes on and on. The real challenge now is [to find] the business model that makes sense.”

That thought was seconded — and backed up with data — by Jamie McCabe, EVP of worldwide PPV, VOD and electronic sellthrough for Fox. He said that year-over-year VOD has been up 100%, mostly through cable outlets. “[And] the Internet is upping the ante for everybody,” he said.






Sounds like he's saying home entertainment isn't dead. They just have to look beyond package media. I guess they see digital distribution as the real future. I would always like a physical copy. But like I've been saying. Except for you guys here, I'm one of the few in my circle that still buys physical media. I admit i'm the minority these days. Most I know are content to just catch it on TV or maybe rent. Forget about them buying catalog again. Pretty much goes with what I see for BR's future. Moderate growth that will slow way before reaching DVDs kind of success. I just hope we all get the biggest titles on BR.

Don't make me bludgeon you with charts again

Respectfully, we have to be careful about personal anecdotes but with DVD and Blu-ray being over a $20 billion dollar annual business, there are obviously a lot of consumers still buying physical media and over a billion in Blu-ray sell through this year is a lot of optical discs physical media sales.

I know I've been holding off buying a lot of Blu-ray catalog at $19-$29 but at $10-$15 I bought a bunch and with the Target $5 off coupon I went nuts and bought dozens at or below $10 net to me. Double dipping there on catalog is very price sensitive, and that was my threshold.

We are long past the point of getting all major new movie releases on Blu-ray day and date with the DVD, and recent 4Q 2009 PS3 and Blu-ray player sales have made the installed base large enough that most of the studio catalog will now inevitably make it now to Blu-ray.

Of course what care will be taken in the release and at what short term price is an open question still, as well as a lot of the TV stuff on Blu-ray.