2009 Blu-ray Sales Metrics Stats: Nielsen/Videoscan/HMM Charts/Ratios/Bestsellers Etc

[Kosty]

It really makes all these naysayers that are saying that optical media is dying look rather foolish doesn't it.

Did this projection chart back in may and its been part of the weekly graph update ever since.

The dashed line is $10 above last years Blu-ray trends or another $520 M in Blu-ray sales for 2009 over 2008. Through September , Blu-ray sales were dancing around it with some spikes but since October Blu-ray has clearly been breading out and accelerating in its growth.

Thats probably due to increasing hardware sales and retailer support finally hitting some positive tipping points.

[ack_bak]

How did woman's boots do? I bought two pairs for the GF.

I didn't buy any this year. Bought too many BD's

[h0mi]

I actually get -1.48% down year to date off the HMM stats, with the strong 4Q closing the gap that existed at the end of the 3Q.

1.02% up is the year to year comparison with Black Friday week last year.

Still impressive.

Doh! I hate misreading charts. Oh well. Still pretty good news and at least Blu-ray is doing well enough to make up for most of the erosion in DVD's sales.

[Dave J]

Well I kind of expected a bigger loss for DVD considering it's downhill spiral. And I thought we might see a bigger % for BR with all those great deals. Still definitely good numbers for BR though.

I think it might be a bit unrealistic to expect a greater increase in percentage of BD revenue than what we just saw. This year it was 12.33% which is a huge improvement over 2008's Black Friday week of only 3.84%.

                   DVD   BD     DVD+BD    BD% 
11/30/08	 533.17	21.31	554.48	 3.84%

[towergrove]

How did woman's boots do? I bought two pairs for the GF.

Don't get me started, My husband will have a conniption if I buy another pair of boots! I've run out of room!

[Kosty]

Don't get me started, My husband will have a conniption if I buy another pair of boots! I've run out of room!

If you do they have to be Blue., err "Blu"

[Kosty]

I think it might be a bit unrealistic to expect a greater increase in percentage of BD revenue than what we just saw. This year it was 12.33% which is a huge improvement over 2008's Black Friday week of only 3.84%.

                   DVD   BD     DVD+BD    BD% 
11/30/08	 533.17	21.31	554.48	 3.84%

Its also 12% of a huge number this week.

[Kosty]

Blu-ray Black Friday Week Sales Triple, Cancel DVD's Fall

Posted December 4, 2009 05:13 AM by Juan Calonge

According to data gathered by the research department of Home Media Magazine, revenue from Blu-ray software sales during the week ended November 24 was a record $69.06 million, up 224.04% from the same week in 2008. That growth more than offset the fall in DVD revenue, which was down 7.89% year-on-year. Packaged media as a whole was up 1.02%.

...

http://www.blu-ray.com/news/?id=3838

[recmasters]

Stand by for some of the graphs.

All your graphs are belong to us!

Wow at those #'s
Keep up the good work Kosty

Spoiler:

69M

[Kosty]

The last month certainly looks like new Blu-ray player owners and the larger install base have started impacting the software sales.

Of course existing owners bought a lot of the discounted units. We know as an absolute fact that the new lower prices for Blu-ray players and PS3s have increased Blu-ray household penetration and have significantly increased the size of the ownership base.

Even without survey data, its only logical to assume that those new owners brought discs too.

Just look at the trending, that growth is simply not just existing owners buying more, its more owners on top of existing owners buying more and probably existing PS3 owners being activated and converted into active Blu-ray buyers.

In fact, its a fair assumption that a lot of virtually all the Blu-ray hardware sold last week probably was still in boxes or still going through their initial purchases or existing libraries by Sunday night when this sales period ended, so those PS3 and Blu-ray player purchases over Black Friday weekend have not even kicked in yet for their software sales impact.

[Noobie]

So where is weekly sales table? just wanted to see if BD has hit $1 Billion this yr.. it ended around $540M last yr.. so i m sure its going to double it this yr n maybe next yr it will be around $2.2 - 2.3B due to increase in rate of adoption due to better pricing n more PS3 n Blu Ray sold over the end of this yr...

Last yr was not good for PS3 n i think one of the reason for slow uptake in the initial months of this yr could be due to slow sales of PS3..

I now do certainly think that PS3 played a vital role in the success of Blu Ray n the ups n downs of Blu Ray are still somewhat tied to the performance of PS3... but definitely with passage of time this correlation will not remain valid. Just a point of view.

[Kosty]

So where is weekly sales table? just wanted to see if BD has hit $1 Billion this yr.. it ended around $540M last yr.. so i m sure its going to double it this yr n maybe next yr it will be around $2.2 - 2.3B due to increase in rate of adoption due to better pricing n more PS3 n Blu Ray sold over the end of this yr...

Last yr was not good for PS3 n i think one of the reason for slow uptake in the initial months of this yr could be due to slow sales of PS3..

I now do certainly think that PS3 played a vital role in the success of Blu Ray n the ups n downs of Blu Ray are still somewhat tied to the performance of PS3... but definitely with passage of time this correlation will not remain valid. Just a point of view.

Working on it this evening with all the charts and graphs.

Should be up around 9 PM EST if not sooner. A little patience please, its not like I get paid to do this

Here's the data for the period weeks ending:

Blu-ray has $981.69 YTD M retail sell through from the HMM charts.

Week ending              DVD   Blu-ray  DVD+BD  BD rev% BD/DVD   Top20%

01/04/09 - 11/29/09  8,659.72  981.69  9,641.41  10.18%  11.34  13.40%

[towergrove]

Thanks for all the hard work Kosty (and on a Friday Evening!!!) Very much appreciated!!!

[Noobie]

Sorry Kosty, i didn't mean to offend u... I honestly do appreciate ur effort n i m sorry if i sounded a bit offensive.. but it seriously wasnt my intention. :$

[Bathawk]

Black Friday week data now up for week ending 11/29/09

$69.06 M Blu-ray

$491.10 DVD

$560.16 DVD + Blu-ray

Blu-ray 12.33% revenue share (new pie chart calculation)
Blu-ray 11.68% top 20 unit share (old pie chart calculation)

Blu-ray up 224.04% YTY
DVD down 7.78% from last year
DVD + Blu-ray up 1.02% with Blu-ray covering all of DVDs attrition from last year

Glad sales are up from last year...but really expected more :/