2009 Blu-ray Sales Metrics Stats: Nielsen/Videoscan/HMM Charts/Ratios/Bestsellers Etc

[Kosty]

EDIT: FOR NEW READERS OF THIS THREAD. THIS IS OLD DATA KEPT HERE FOR REFERENCE.

SEE FIRST POST FOR LINK TO CURRENT ONGOING DISCUSSION ON THE NEWEST SALES FIGURES OR READ THE POST ABOVE THIS ONE FOR MORE INFORMATION


[note for jan 18 2008 readers this post has been kept as placeholder , current week discussions follow immediately]

[Kosty]

Please do not post in this thread until I have transferred data over and this thread has been made sticky sometime today.

EDIT: transfer complete

Feel free to post in this new thread.

Kosty

I am working now on updating the charts and graphs for this thread after being out of town for a couple weeks so please have a bit of patience with me today.


http://www.dvdinformation.com/TitleSearch/titles.cfm

Originally Posted by Dave J

I found the latest Nielsen VideoScan top 20 sellers for w/e 12/28. Unfortunately nothing for blu-ray specifically but I think this list is similar to Home Media Magazine in that it includes all SKUs (DVD and blu-ray) for each title.

http://www.dvdinformation.com/TitleSearch/titles.cfm

Top Selling Titles

For the Week Ending December 28, 2008
Source: The Digital Entertainment Group and Nielsen VideoScan

1 The Dark Knight Warner Home Video
2 Mama Mia! Universal Studios Home Entertainment
3 Burn After Reading Universal Studios Home Entertainment
4 Death Race Universal Studios Home Entertainment
5 Wall-E Walt Disney Studios Home Entertainment
6 The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor Universal Studios Home Entertainment
7 Dr Seuss' Horton Hears a Who! Twentieth Century Fox Home Entertainment
8 Step Brothers Sony Pictures Home Entertainment
9 The House Bunny Sony Pictures Home Entertainment
10 Hancock Sony Pictures Home Entertainment
11 Wanted Universal Studios Home Entertainment
12 The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian
Walt Disney Studios Home Entertainment
13 Iron Man Paramount Home Entertainment
14 Kung Fu Panda DreamWorks
15 The Women New Line Home Entertainment
16 Eagle Eye DreamWorks
17 Tropic Thunder DreamWorks
18 The Traitor Lionsgate
19 Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull Paramount Home Entertainment
20 Sex and the City - The Movie New Line Home Entertainment

[Kosty]

I think that the identical use of the same Nielsen/Videoscan database that HMM has been using in its top 20 chart each week. So it would be a combined DVD & Blu-ray list as its using all active SKUs for each movie title as its adding up the sales of all versions of that movie title.

The database was originally designed when it was useful to have it default to all versions of a DVD on sale (Full Screen, Widescreen, Special Edition, Wal-Mart package, Collectors edition, Directors Cut etc, when it only had to deal with DVD (or VHS) as a format and it now by default adds up the Blu-ray Disc versions as just another SKU for each title. It takes some effort to tease out the Blu-ray versions and its kinda not worth it for weekly stats for the top 20 titles sort.

[Kosty]

Originally Posted by Grubert

Here are all weekly sales per HMR. Someone might want to combine them in one big chart

Seems like a good idea to me.












see explanations in next post

[Kosty]

using the Home Media Magazine weekly reported Blu-ray revenue estimates and the unit totals from the above charts, its clear the unit numbers reported there are not the totals for the format and are clearly the raw reported Nielsen/Videoscan first alert numbers (ie, they do not include Wal-Mart)

The average sale price calculated out is $38.0983 , which is not the actual average real world sale price of Blu-ray units (its well over MSRP)

But by using that as a calculation factor, I can estimate out the weekly revenues from 1/3 thru 4/13 and the estimated Nielsen/Videoscan first alert units for 12/7, 12/14, 121/21 (and beyond).

date  HMM units  HMM rev  Calculated Rev per units

4/20	259,920	 9.92	38.1656
4/27	250,191	 9.20	36.7719
5/4	187,422	 7.08	37.7757
5/11	176,572	 6.56	37.1520
5/18	220,018	 7.99	36.3152
5/25	332,426	12.38	37.2414
6/1	269,944	10.05	37.2299
6/8	254,917	10.02	39.3069
6/15	330,764	12.73	38.4867
6/22	229,348	 8.48	36.9744
6/29	240,212	 8.88	36.9673
7/6	211,141	 7.86	37.2263
7/13	232,386	 8.42	36.2328
7/20	207,544	 7.61	36.6669
7/27	220,685	 8.00	36.2508
8/3	262,404	 9.42	35.8988
8/10	190,402	 6.89	36.1866
8/17	167,283	 6.19	37.0032
8/24	183,133	 7.07	38.6058
8/31	225,601	 9.11	40.3810
9/7	286,174	10.60	37.0404
9/14	238,333	 9.18	38.5175
9/21	232,196	 8.87	38.2005
9/28	251,393	10.92	43.4380
10/5	671,283	26.84	39.9831
10/12	375,438	14.37	38.2753
10/19	419,891	17.94	42.7254
10/26	438,583	17.71	40.3800
11/2	323,973	12.22	37.7192
11/9	292,742	10.99	37.5416
11/16	504,868	20.17	39.9510
11/23	516,689	18.60	35.9984
11/30	769,011	27.68	35.9943

sum calc 4/20 -11/30	

totals (avg)   9,972,887	379.95	38.0983 (avg)

using an calculation factor of 38.0983 to translate between revenues and Nielsen/Videoscan first alert units yields

date  est units  reported revenues

12/7	620,500	23.64
12/14	1,595,347	60.78
12/21	1,220,790	46.51

and

date reported units  estimated revenues

1/6	406,467	15.49
1/13	446,691	17.02
1/20	233,831	8.91
1/27	212,947	8.11
2/3	176,651	6.73
2/10	189,804	7.23
2/17	224,819	8.57
2/24	285,287	10.87
3/2	224,972	8.57
3/9	174,419	6.65
3/16	307,048	11.70
3/23	493,030	18.78
3/30	252,345	9.61
4/6	207,583	7.91
4/13	199,180	7.59

[Kosty]

Originally Posted by Dave J

http://www.variety.com/article/VR111...goryId=20&cs=1

As of Dec. 21, 22 million Blu-ray units had sold, a research report indicates; last year, 5.3 million units were sold. The format was closing in on the $750 million-$800 million target projected by several studios at a November DEG event, when earlier predictions of $1 billion in Blu-ray sales looked out of reach.

transfer from old thread

[Kosty]

My charts above showing the HMM data estimates only 17,444,598 Blu-ray units sold YTD thru 12/21/2008. So its 79.29% of that 22 million estimate.

I'm pretty sure its based off of the Nielsen/Videoscan first alert data, which does not include Wal-Mart and Sam's Club system sales.

The missing 20.71% would not be a unrealistic number for Wal-Mart Blu-ray sales.

So you can probably just plus up all those graphs 126.11% to get a 22 million unit estimate.

[Kosty]

Originally Posted by Dave J

It's finally here...enjoy!

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6627437.html

DEG says industry off 5.5% in 2008
Blu-ray Disc shipments, sales tripled
By Marcy Magiera -- Video Business, 1/7/2009

JAN. 7 | DEG: The Digital Entertainment Group said today that U.S. consumer spending on packaged home entertainment fell by 5.5% in 2008, to $22.4 billion.

The total encompasses rental and sales of DVD and high-definition disc formats.

High-def disc spending, primarily Blu-ray Disc, almost tripled during the year, however, reaching $750 million, according to DEG figures compiled with input from all the major studios.

Blu-ray software shipments grew 250%, to 63.2 million units in 2008, from 18 million units in 2007, DEG said.

Sales of Blu-ray players, including videogame consoles, meanwhile, grew to almost 10 million units since the format’s launch, according to DEG. In the fourth quarter alone, 3 million devices were sold, the trade group said.

Consumer spending on DVD purchases fell more dramatically than the total, declining by 9%, to about $14.5 billion, according to DEG, while rental spending including kiosk transactions, was flat. In total, consumer spending on DVD rentals and sales combined fell 7.3%, to $21.6 billion, according to DEG.

DVD shipments also were down during the year, declining to 1.4 billion units, an almost 15% drop from 2007 unit shipments.

Video Business will release its own year-end analysis, including consumer spending totals and studio market share, on Jan. 19.

transfer from old thread

[Kosty]

Originally Posted by Dave J

http://www.dvdinformation.com/News/p...009yearEnd.htm

transfer from old thread

[Kosty]

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/...68949257a50c0c

'Pineapple Express' tops DVD charts
'Righteous Kill' takes second in sales, rentals
By Thomas K. Arnold

Jan 14, 2009, 07:02 PM ET

The year is getting off to a fruity start, with Sony Pictures Home Entertainment's "Pineapple Express" topping the national home video sales and rental charts its first week in stores.

The comedy, which grossed $87.3 million in U.S. theaters, easily took the No. 1 spot on both the Nielsen VideoScan First Alert sales chart and Home Media Magazine's rental chart, beating three other new releases.

The Anchor Bay thriller "Righteous Kill," with $40 million in theatrical earnings, debuted at No. 2 on both the sales and the rental chart. The film generated 86% as much rental action as "Express," but just 35% as much sales activity.

The 20th Century Fox actioner "Babylon A.D." debuted at No. 4 on the sales chart, right behind Paramount/DreamWorks' "Eagle Eye," the previous week's top seller. "Babylon" also rode its $22.5 million box office haul to a No. 4 debut on the rental chart, just behind the week's fourth new release, the Lionsgate thriller "Bangkok Dangerous." "Bangkok," which grossed $15.3 million in theaters, entered the First Alert sales chart at No. 5.

On the Blu-ray Disc chart, also from Nielsen VideoScan, "Pineapple Express" scored a first-place finish, while Warners' "The Dark Knight" slipped a notch to No. 2. "Righteous Kill" debuted at No. 3, followed by "Babylon A.D." at No. 4, "Eagle Eye" at No. 5 and "Bangkok Dangerous" at No. 6.

[Kosty]

http://www.blu-raystats.com/NewsLog/

Quote:
Market Share and Revenues Slip, Though Still Strong for Week Ending January 11th
Posted in Market Share on January 16th, 2009 by Dave

The revenue and market share versus DVD were both down this last week, with The Dark Knight having less influence over the numbers, according to the latest Home Media Magazine.

Not that the numbers are horrible - 13% market share and $17.8M are still in the high range over the time period that these numbers have been reported.

Pineapple Express is the first title to push Dark Knight from the number one spot, doing amazingly well for a comedy with almost three times the sales of Dark Knight.

Righteous Kill, Babylon A.D. and Eagle Eye followed close behind Dark Knight to round out the top 5.

Newcomer Bangkok Dangerous settled for 6th position while strong performers WALL-E , Iron Man, Transformers and Death Race rounded out the top 10.

Another week where the market share by title is dominated by catalog releases - nice to see Criterion’s The Last Emperor and The Third Man doing well against their DVD counterparts.

[Kosty]

Originally Posted by silverado

http://http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtboo...M/index.php#/0

Link to HMM page wich has
$18.71 in revenue
13:87 share

transfer from old thread

[Kosty]

[

Originally Posted by Dave J

I just realized I calculated the blu-ray revenue incorrectly for the missing week (w/e 12/28/08) when I posted the above. It was actually $40.07 million ($24.33 million/.6072 = $40.07 million) for blu-ray and $302.51 million for DVD ($132.83/.4391 = $302.51). The percentage breakdown of revenue was blu-ray (11.70%) and DVD (88.30%).

transfer from old thread

Netflix report filing on DVD rental income costs to studios

If we are unable to renew or renegotiate our revenue sharing agreements when they expire on terms favorable to us, or if the cost of
obtaining titles on a wholesale basis increases, our gross margins may be adversely affected.
We obtain DVDs through a mix of revenue sharing agreements and direct purchases. The type of agreement depends on the economic
terms we can negotiate as well as studio preferences. We have entered into numerous revenue sharing arrangements with studios and distributors
which typically enabled us to increase our copy depth of DVDs on an economical basis because of a low initial payment with additional
payments made only if our subscribers rent the DVD. During the course of our revenue sharing relationships, various contract administration
issues can arise. To the extent that we are unable to resolve any of these issues in an amicable manner, our relationship with the studios and
distributors or our access to content may be adversely impacted.
As the revenue sharing agreements expire, we must renegotiate new terms or shift to direct purchasing arrangements, under which we must
pay the full wholesale price regardless of whether the DVD is rented. If we cannot renegotiate purchasing on favorable terms, the cost of
obtaining content could increase and our gross margins may be adversely affected. In addition, the risk associated with accurately predicting title
demand could increase if we are required to directly purchase more titles.
14
• our subscriber satisfaction may decrease, subscribers may perceive our service to be of lower value and our ability to attract and retain
subscribers may be adversely affected;
• our ability to effectively merchandise and utilize our library will be adversely affected; and
• our subscribers may default to choosing titles from among new releases or other titles that cost us more to provide, and our margins
may be adversely affected.

Content Accounting
We obtain content from studios and distributors through direct purchases, revenue sharing agreements or license agreements.
We acquire DVD content for the purpose of rental to our subscribers and earning subscription rental revenues, and, as such, we consider
our DVD library to be a productive asset. Accordingly, we classify our DVD library as a non-current asset on our consolidated balance sheets.
Additionally, in accordance with Statement of Financial Accounting Standards (“SFAS”) No. 95, Statement of Cash Flows, (“SFAS 95”) cash
outflows for the acquisition of the DVD library, net of changes in related accounts payable, are classified as cash flows from investing activities
on our consolidated statements of cash flows. This is inclusive of any upfront non-refundable payments required under revenue sharing
agreements.
We amortize our DVDs, less estimated salvage value, on a “sum-of-the-months” accelerated basis over their estimated useful lives. The
useful life of the new-release DVDs and back-catalog DVDs is estimated to be one year and three years, respectively. In estimating the useful
life of our DVDs, we take into account library utilization as well as an estimate for lost or damaged DVDs.
27
2008 2007 2006
Revenues $ 1,364,661 $ 1,205,340 $ 996,660
Net income 83,026 66,608 48,839
Net income per share—diluted $ 1.32 $ 0.97 $ 0.71
Total subscribers at end of period 9,390 7,479 6,316
Churn (annualized) (1) 4.2 % 4.3 % 4.1 %
Subscriber acquisition cost $ 29.12 $ 40.86 $ 42.94
Gross margin 33.3 % 34.8 % 37.1 %
(1) Churn (annualized) is the average of Churn for the four quarters of each respective year
Table of Contents
For those direct purchase DVDs that we estimate we will sell at the end of their useful lives, a salvage value of $3.00 per DVD has been
provided. For those DVDs that we do not expect to sell, no salvage value is provided. We periodically evaluate the useful lives and salvage
values of our DVDs.
We also obtain content distribution rights in order to stream movies and TV episodes without commercial interruption to subscribers. We
account for streaming content in accordance with SFAS No. 63, Reporting by Broadcasters (“SFAS 63”), which requires classification of
streaming content as either a current or non-current asset in the consolidated balance sheets based on the estimated time of usage after certain
criteria have been met, including availability of the streaming content for its first showing. We amortize our streaming content on a straight-line
basis generally over the term of the related license agreements or the title’s window of availability. Cash outflows associated with the streaming
content are classified as cash flows from operating activities on our consolidated statements of cash flows.
We also obtain DVD and streaming content through revenue sharing agreements with studios and distributors. We generally obtain titles
for low initial cost in exchange for a commitment to share a percentage of our subscription revenues or a fee, based on utilization, over a fixed
period, or the Title Term, which typically ranges from six to twelve months for each title. The initial cost may be in the form of an upfront nonrefundable
payment. This payment is capitalized in the content library in accordance with our DVD and streaming content policies as applicable.
The initial cost may also be in the form of a prepayment of future revenue sharing obligations which is classified as prepaid revenue sharing
expense. The terms of some revenue sharing agreements with studios obligate us to make minimum revenue sharing payments for certain titles.
We amortize minimum revenue sharing prepayments (or accrete an amount payable to studios if the payment is due in arrears) as revenue
sharing obligations are incurred. A provision for estimated shortfall, if any, on minimum revenue sharing payments is made in the period in
which the shortfall becomes probable and can be reasonably estimated. Under the revenue sharing agreements for our DVD library, at the end of
the Title Term, we generally have the option of returning the DVD to the studio, destroying the DVD or purchasing the DVD.
Additionally, the terms of certain DVD direct purchase agreements with studios provide for volume purchase discounts or rebates based on
achieving specified performance levels. Volume purchase discounts are recorded as a reduction of DVD library when earned. We

http://files.shareholder.com/downloa...280/filing.pdf

[Kosty]

OK thread is open for posting ...

I'm still updating the charts adn I won't have the graphs updated until sometime tomorrow

Kosty



P.S. I think i transferred over all the ongoing posts that were of current or historical interest. Feel free to copy and repost anyting I missed, including relevent articles .

[Kosty]

I've now updated this through the 01/11/09 data

Blu-ray's revenue market share has been increasing versus DVD since Christmas.


Please use scroll bar to see complete data set

The data here is format totals, the last column is the top 20 title for each format comparison %.

Newest week is on top of the chart.

(-$XXX M) (- XX M) change from last week
( % ) ( -23.10 %)


WEEKLY REVENUE CALCULATIONS

Data from HMM thru week ending 12/21/2008  (Newest week on top)


Date    DVD  Blu-ray  DVD+BD  BD/(DVD+BD) BD/DVD*100  BD% of
     revenue revenue  revenue  revenue    rev index   top 20 units   Releases

01/11 110.78  18.71   129.49  14.44 %     16.89     13 % 
01/04 132.83  24.33   157.16  15.48 %     18.31     16 % 
 1Q 2009
12/28 302.51  40.07   342.58  11.70 %     13.25      Unknown (pending)
12/21 349.84  46.51   396.35  11.73 %     13.29     11 %  Mama Mia 
12/14 461.51  60.78   522.29  11.64 %     13.17     14 %  The Dark Knight
12/07 240.59  23.64   264.23   8.95 %     09.83     11 %  Wanted,Naria: Prince
11/30 386.35  27.68   414.03   6.69 %     07.16     10 %  Hancock     
11/23 178.46  18.60   197.06   9.44 %     10.42     11 %  Wall-E 
11/16 174.17  20.17   194.34  10.38 %     11.58      9 %  Hellboy II Kung Fu Panda 
11/09 118.55  10.99   129.54   8.48 %     09.27      8 %  Get Smart
11/02 118.26  12.22   130.48   9.37 %     10.33      8 %  Tinker Bell 
10/26 123.16  17.71   140.87  12.57 %     14.38     12 %  The Incredible Hulk 
10/19 129.41  17.94   147.35  12.18 %     13.86     11 %  Indiana Jones KOCS 
10/12 126.10  14.37   140.47  10.23 %     11.40     10 %  Sleeping Beauty 
10/05 144.38  26.84   171.22  15.68 %     18.59     13 % (4Q) Ironman

9/28  118.94  10.92   129.86   8.41 %     09.18      6 % Sex in the City (3Q)
9/21  111.29   8.87   120.16   7.38 %     07.97      8 %
9/14  111.28   9.18   120.46   7.62 %     08.25      8 %
9/07  111.11  10.60   121.71   8.71 %     09.54     12 %  Transformers
8/31  124.23   9.11   133.34   6.83 %     07.33      6 %
8/24  120.41   7.07   127.48   5.55 %     05.87      6 %
8/17  111.17   6.19   117.36   5.27 %     05.57      8 %
8/10  125.81   6.89   132.70   5.19 %     05.48      7 %
8/03  124.93   9.42   134.35   7.01 %     07.54     10 %
7/27  115.75   8.00   123.75   6.46 %     06.91      9 %
7/20  112.23   7.61   119.84   6.35 %     06.78      8 %
7/13  115.29   8.42   123.71   6.81 %     07.30     12 %
7/06  121.63   7.86   129.49   6.07 %     06.46      7 % (3Q)

6/29  129.76   8.88   138.64   6.41 %     06.84      7 % (2Q) 
6/22  123.46   8.48   131.94   6.43 %     06.87      6 %
6/15  160.20  12.73   172.93   7.36 %     07.95      7 % Bucket List Jumper
6/08  123.74  10.02   133.76   7.49 %     08.10      9 % Rambo
6/01  129.37  10.05   139.42   7.21 %     07.32     10 % National Treasure
5/25  148.88  12.38   161.26   7.68 %     08.32      7 % National Treasure BOS
5/18  126.46   7.99   134.45   5.94 %     06.32      5 %
5/11  124.60   6.56   131.16   5.00 %     05.26      5 %
5/4   101.25   7.08   111.33   6.54 %     06.99      5 %
4/27  106.76   9.20   115.96   7.93 %     08.62      6 %

1/06 thru       (1/01 thru 4/20 totals) 
4/20 totals
      2,573.43 76.61 2,650.04  2.89 %     02.98      ? %


1/06 thru
4/20 average per week (16 weeks, average per week  1/06 thru 4/20)
        160.83  4.79  165.62   2.89 %     02.98      ? %     

4/20  Unknown  9.92   Unknown  Unknown    Unknown    6 %

4/13                                                 5 %
4/06                                                 4 % (2Q) 

3/30                                                 8 % (1Q)
3/23                                                 6 %

YEAR TO DATE REVENUE CALCULATIONS

Note needs to be updated

Calculated Year To Date 1/1/08 thru 12/21/08)

Date    DVD  Blu-ray  DVD+BD  BD/(DVD+BD) BD/DVD*100  BD% of
     revenue revenue  revenue  revenue    revenue    top 20 units

YTD  7922.76 587.49  8510.25   6.90 %	  07.4152       ? % (total revenue thru 12/21) 

(HMM Reported Year To Date 1/1/08 thru 11/16/08) 	 

YTD  6306.01 410.28  6716.29   6.11 %	  06.51       4 % (total revenue thru 11/16)

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ques...m782249PMN/#/4

11/23 data adjusted with official stats from HMM staff

(BD/DVD*100 is a relative market share index of Blu-ray to DVD sales)
(BD/(DVD+DVD) is the Blu-ray market share expressed as a percentage)