2009 Blu-ray Sales Metrics Stats: Nielsen/Videoscan/HMM Charts/Ratios/Bestsellers Etc

[ack_bak]

Well, until they call this forum the Blu-ray discussion forum with the disclaimer: "if you aren't here for Blu-ray: move on", then Mike's opposing viewpoints are just as welcome. You must be a huge Blu-ray fan for his posts to bother you that much to want to change the focus of Smackdown.

Mike breaks a number of forum rules with every thread and post that he makes (for instance, rule #7). The mods here simply turn their back.

I honestly don't care if Mike is allowed to post here or not. He is pretty much the punching bad of smackdown and he makes it pretty easy on those that are doing the smacking.

[ack_bak]

That is so true. We lost a "troll" in another forum and as a result the post count went way down and it's not nearly as interesting. Every forum, especially Smackdown, needs "trolls" like Mike. Of course, he's only a troll to those who violently disagree with him, and I feel sooo sorry for them. Waaaaaaa!

That is just one of many reasons why not many people post at HDF... There are some much bigger issues at play than that...

[bruceames]

Mike breaks a number of forum rules with every thread and post that he makes (for instance, rule #7). The mods here simply turn their back.

I honestly don't care if Mike is allowed to post here or not. He is pretty much the punching bad of smackdown and he makes it pretty easy on those that are doing the smacking.

No, it's just that the mods don't agree with you. And obviously you do care about Mike posting here, otherwise you wouldn't complain about it so much.

[ack_bak]

No, it's just that the mods don't agree with you. And obviously you do care about Mike posting here, otherwise you wouldn't complain about it so much.

Actually I don't care. I have never reported Mike even after all the personal attacks he has made, and everytime he breaks one of the forum rules (which is all the time). If I really cared, I would report him

[Taffy]

I honestly don't care if Mike is allowed to post here or not. He is pretty much the punching bad of smackdown and he makes it pretty easy on those that are doing the smacking.

Obviously you do. He's a thorn in your side.
Readers in this forum that posses the ability to think objectively and read the linked articles he posts (thanks Mike and keep 'em coming) can see thru all that ridiculous BD PR crap and recognize it for what it is.....just so much bullsh*t dispensed by greedy Hollywood studios!!!

[Kosty]

Obviously you do. He's a thorn in your side.
Readers in this forum that posses the ability to think objectively and read the linked articles he posts (thanks Mike and keep 'em coming) can see thru all that ridiculous BD PR crap and recognize it for what it is.....just so much bullsh*t dispensed by greedy Hollywood studios!!!

Thats a big waaaaaaaaah post.

Some of us are actually interested in following the progress of high definition media for the home and seeing how Blu-ray with the highest audio and video quality available in a home format is doing in the marketplace.

Since this thread has the advantage in actually having consistent readily available data available on a weekly basis to follow, its kinda interesting to actually see some actual sales data to consider week after week.

If I had weekly sales stats on HD DVR sales or usage, or satellite HD or VOD or anything else, I'd be willing to talk about it too.

[neone]

As I realized yrs ago, many internet forums are just like a stage without a script. A typical Jerry springer environment where people behave badly for the sake of entertainment. The guests say outrageous things and the audience just loves it. So the key is whether we were entertained.

I also have to say thought that the act can wear really thin sometimes. New material is needed sorely. I'm assuming that most people here are grown men and not in highschool, so when someone talks to us as if we're in nursery school the novelty fades very quickly.

[ack_bak]

Per Grubert's thread:

Consumers spent more than $111 million renting Blu-ray discs through bricks-and-mortar and online outlets in the third quarter, 44.5% more than a year earlier. Year-to-date Blu-ray rentals are up 53.8% to $313 million, Rentrak reports.

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6701407.html

[Taffy]

Thats a big waaaaaaaaah post.

How so.....

Some of us are actually interested in following the progress of high definition media for the home and seeing how Blu-ray with the highest audio and video quality available in a home format is doing in the marketplace.

I'd go further than that and say all of us....

Since this thread has the advantage in actually having consistent readily available data available on a weekly basis to follow, its kinda interesting to actually see some actual sales data to consider week after week.

It's the way this data is interpreted. Using your charts that display both DVD and BD...BD looks like a bottom feeder for many years to come as Mick pointed out.

[Kosty]

How so.....
I'd go further than that and say all of us....It's the way this data is interpreted. Using your charts that display both DVD and BD...BD looks like a bottom feeder for many years to come as Mick pointed out.

Sure, we all know that DVD is an order of magnitude higher than Blu-ray at the moment. DVD sales are much higher. Absolutely no surprise there and there is no controversy there as that is just a simple truth.

But its also true that combined DVD and Blu-ray revenues together have fallen much less than DVD sell through revenues alone and that much of that DVD attrition has obviously gone to consumers transitioning from standard definition DVD to high definition Blu-ray.

Its also obviously true that Blu-ray is steadily gaining market share over time and what will be important in determining how fast and how far it will gain consumer household penetration is Blu-ray's performance in the last three months of the year.

One other fact thats clear is that Blu-ray is increasing is sales, market share and magnitude far faster than some other studio revenue streams such as digital downloads and DBS HD DVR usage, which you and him have championed or claimed would become the norm instead of Blu-ray.

Even if DVD is declining , some of that is offset by Blu-ray gains and it still dwarfs other movie delivery methods and revenue streams.

The simple fact that DVD is still larger than Blu-ray does not eliminate the truth that Blu-ray has become a sustainable multi Billion dollar industry that has reached or is reaching mainstream consumer status and household penetration.

Its the growth and trending thats more significant , not the fact that DVD is still larger, of course it is.

[Kosty]

How so.....
I'd go further than that and say all of us....It's the way this data is interpreted. Using your charts that display both DVD and BD...BD looks like a bottom feeder for many years to come as Mick pointed out.

You are also making the highly biased and simplistic assumption that any growth will be linear or incremental over time.

Usually growing markets do not act like that and there are inflection points and thresholds when things accelerate.

Already top 20 units seem to be rising faster than overall format revenues and as more hardware sales occur and more consumers own Blu-ray players and match them up with existing or newly bought HDTVs things can accelerate rapidly.

Just continuously commenting that Blu-ray is failing because its still smaller than DVD is not only simplistic but short sighted.

[Taffy]

Sure, we all know that DVD is an order of magnitude higher than Blu-ray at the moment. DVD sales are much higher. Absolutely no surprise there and there is no controversy there as that is just a simple truth.

But its also true that combined DVD and Blu-ray revenues together have fallen much less than DVD sell through revenues alone and that much of that DVD attrition has obviously gone to consumers transitioning from standard definition DVD to high definition Blu-ray.

DVD sales are declining because, IMO, the only people buying DVDs (among DVD's much wider demographic base) are fans of comic book and cartoon movies....same exact same demographic that are buying BDs.

Its also obviously true that Blu-ray is steadily gaining market share over time and what will be important in determining how fast and how far it will gain consumer household penetration is Blu-ray's performance in the last three months of the year.

Don't you question the underlying reasoning behind sales increases on what's considered by many...a luxury item during a deep recession??? At any rate...the growth is fueled by just a few PS3 type titles...hardly the cornerstone of a healthy diverse emerging media format.

One other fact thats clear is that Blu-ray is increasing is sales, market share and magnitude far faster than some other studio revenue streams such as digital downloads and DBS HD DVR usage, which you and him have championed or claimed would become the norm instead of Blu-ray.

Sat/cab/Telco forms of entertainment IS the norm!!! It's so ingrained in mainstream America that it's taken for granted....so-much-so that most users will never progress beyond the HD service their provider provides. No need to. The problem with BD is they somehow actually expect consumers to buy a HD player and HD movies over just watching the same HD movies they already get as part of their Sat/cab/Telco service!!!
I don't think that's very smart as the appeal beyond video/audiophiles is just not there.

Even if DVD is declining , some of that is offset by Blu-ray gains and it still dwarfs other movie delivery methods and revenue streams.
The simple fact that DVD is still larger than Blu-ray does not eliminate the truth that Blu-ray has become a sustainable multi Billion dollar industry that has reached or is reaching mainstream consumer status and household penetration.
Its the growth and trending thats more significant , not the fact that DVD is still larger, of course it is.

I'll tell you this...as long as Hollywood makes crappy movies that only appeal to a narrow segment of the population...movie revenues will decline. It's a world turned upside down when a cartoon movie is a bigger box office draw than the latest Bruce Willis' flick.

[Kosty]

Just put this in the Wal-Mart thread, put its appropriate here.

You seem to be assuming linear growth. Real markets don't act like that and in particular Blu-ray movie software sales will accelerate in their year to date sales pace, as more Blu-ray hardware units are sold, as those new and existing Blu-ray player owners see more software units on retail display, as advertising and promotion for Blu-ray gets more consumer impressions, as the summer hits get released and better movies are marketed and as the holiday sales season picks up with Blu-ray players at mass market consumer price points with increased performance selection inventory and general availability.

All of those factors occur in the last three months in the year and will effect Blu-ray revenues and market share.

[Kosty]

Well thanks, at least I can address some of your more distinct thoughts here.

DVD sales are declining because, IMO, the only people buying DVDs (among DVD's much wider demographic base) are fans of comic book and cartoon movies....same exact same demographic that are buying BDs.

Lots of reasons, but home media sales at more than $12 Billion sellthrough and $22 Billion , with a B, combined income still dwarf most consumer catagories. Heck, Blu-ray itself at between 1-2 Billion does os by itself , even though its only a fraction of DVD. But a significant portion of consumers are transitioning from standard definition optical disc DVD into high definition Blu-ray and those that do are preserving a good portion of that high margin revenue stream for the studios and retailers.

As seen by some evidence above, its not the top 20 or top 30 new release DVD or Blu-ray sales that are the issue, its catalog DVD sales revenues, which have been falling steadily now for many many years, even if that was partially hidden by the success of TV series DVD box sets.

A lot of that DVD unit price attrition has been retailer building traffic price reductions and holiday sales and discount bins, and that effects retailer profit margins more than the studios.

DD and Internet stuff has so far seen little evidence that it can cover any portion by itself, but maybe all of those delivery methods can add up to preserving a lot of the studio revenue stream with legacy DVD and upgraded high definition Blu-ray.

Don't you question the underlying reasoning behind sales increases on what's considered by many...a luxury item during a deep recession??? At any rate...the growth is fueled by just a few PS3 type titles...hardly the cornerstone of a healthy diverse emerging media format.

I'm not the one questioning the fact that Blu-ray sales are dramatically increasing. Thats as much of a fact as DVD sales are declining.

Last week, Monsters vs Aliens and a 70 year old The Wizard of Oz, did over $21.81 Million in Blu-ray sales beating last years PS3 demographic superhero movie, Ironman. So maybe the increased size of Blu-ray's ownership base is moving beyond the PS3 demographic. You seem to be stuck in the past.

Sat/cab/Telco forms of entertainment IS the norm!!! It's so ingrained in mainstream America that it's taken for granted....so-much-so that most users will never progress beyond the HD service their provider provides. No need to.

Sure. A lot won;t but DVD penetration is also a societal norm and ingrained habit and as people buy HDTVs a lot of them can be tempted to buy $99-$129 Blu-ray players. Optical Disc playback is simpler and well understood by consumers and is a hell of a lot easier to understand than downloads , streaming to TV, managing multiple freaken hard drives for your sat HD DVR for movies you lease and consumers can trust an optical disc like CD DVD or Blu-ray to play in equipment for decades and decades to come.

The problem with BD is they somehow actually expect consumers to buy a HD player and HD movies over just watching the same HD movies they already get as part of their Sat/cab/Telco service!!!

Well it seems that a lot of consumers already are and even more will do so when they upgrade to HDTV or increase the size of their primary display. Its also not an either or situation, its complementary. I love my DISH HD DVD and use it all the time for movies I don't want to buy yet, want to watch once or are not available yet on Blu-ray. But if its a favorite I want to rewatch I want it in the best format available and to me for $9-$19 its a bargain to get it on Blu-ray or rent it.

I don't think that's very smart as the appeal beyond video/audiophiles is just not there.

If Blu-ray is going to be beyond $1.5 BILLION to $2 BILLION in revenues in 2009, thats well beyond SACD DVD Audio niche status and well on its way to being mainstream.

I'll tell you this...as long as Hollywood makes crappy movies that only appeal to a narrow segment of the population...movie revenues will decline. It's a world turned upside down when a cartoon movie is a bigger box office draw than the latest Bruce Willis' flick.

Well I can't argue with you here.

But I like the older movies coming out on Blu-ray too and I like the Hollywood revenue stream from home video being extended as it helps pay for the pretty movies. Doesn't bother me at all either if their is some excess eliminating belt tightening going away either as long as its still profitable to make the movies I enjoy.

[cakefoo]

If Blu-ray is going to be beyond $1.5 BILLION to $2 BILLION in revenues in 2009, thats well beyond SACD DVD Audio niche status and well on its way to being mainstream.

No! Blu-ray will forever be niche! I'll not have it!