2009 Blu-ray Sales Metrics Stats: Nielsen/Videoscan/HMM Charts/Ratios/Bestsellers Etc

[Kosty]

So in 32 weeks, 2009 was able to top 2008's total.

Also, Q4 tends to equal the other three quarters, combined. Right?

Finally, it appears to me that the year-to-year improvement for Blu-ray is accellerating.

Q1 it averaged in the mid to high double digits.
Q2 it averaged more than 100%.
Q3 so far it has averaged more than 200%.

That's impressive.

I clearly see that the rate of change is accelerating. If you just look at the slope of the line for the accumulated revenues you can see that Blu-ray is moving faster.

Its especially clear on the two axis graph where the DVD magnitude is synced with last years and this years Blu-ray's magnitude.

In that case it highlights the slope of the 2009 Blu-ray revenues and you can see that its on a significantly higher growth path, with the Sep-Dec seasonal boost still yet to come.

[C.S.Strowbridge]

I clearly see that the rate of change is accelerating. If you just look at the slope of the line for the accumulated revenues you can see that Blu-ray is moving faster.

I did the math.

Q1 had average growth of 92%
Q2 had average growth of 138%
Q3 so far has had average growth of 222%

This is unweighted.

[Kosty]

I did the math.

Q1 had average growth of 92%
Q2 had average growth of 138%
Q3 so far has had average growth of 222%

This is unweighted.

You based that off these YTY comparison numbers?

          Year to year change from 2008 to 2009 

08/16/09  (BD+230.97% -15.34% DVD TL  -7.93% YTY) 
08/09/09  (BD+207.73%  -4.53% DVD TL  +1.64% YTY) 
08/02/09  (BD+324.65%  +3.65% DVD TL +16.62% YTY) 
07/26/09  (BD+471.79% +14.75% DVD TL +31.71% YTY) 
07/19/09  (BD +90.63% -17.43% DVD TL -13.48% YTY) 
07/12/09  (BD+149.25%  -8.85% DVD TL  -2.66% YTY)    
07/05/09  (BD +77.33% -14.03% DVD TL -10.85% YTY)


06/28/09  (BD+111.85% -19.60% DVD TL -14.77% YTY)
06/21/09  (BD+218.74% +37.35% DVD TL +44.04% YTY)
06/14/09  (BD+103.16% -14.69% DVD TL -09.69% YTY)
06/07/09  (BD+107.75% -06.83% DVD TL -01.87% YTY)
05/31/09  (BD+ 81.72% -17.58% DVD TL -13.45% YTY)
05/24/09  (BD+119.47% -13.10% DVD TL -07.23% YTY)
05/17/09  (BD+285.12% +07.71% DVD TL +17.15% YTY)
05/10/09  (BD+226.95% -03.90% DVD TL +02.69% YTY)
05/03/09  (BD+176.73% -05.24% DVD TL +00.66% YTY)
04/26/09  (BD +43.76% -21.75% DVD TL -17.82% YTY)
04/19/09  (BD +15.31% -31.37% DVD TL -28.57% YTY)
04/12/09  (BD+172.86% +27.63% DVD TL +33.44% YTY)
04/05/09  (BD+130.70% +01.73% DVD TL +06.89% YTY)     


03/29/09  (BD+164.64% +87.76% DVD TL +93.91% YTY)
03/22/09  (BD +05.89% -02.08% DVD TL -01.37% YTY)
03/15/09  (BD +51.53% -10.87% DVD TL -07.13% YTY)
03/08/09  (BD +69.04% -17.54% DVD TL -14.08% YTY)
03/01/09  (BD +46.36% -10.16% DVD TL  -7.33% YTY)  
02/22/09  (BD +29.31% -11.94% DVD TL  -9.47% YTY)
02/15/09  (BD +33.27% -00.25% DVD TL  +1.42% YTY)
02/08/09  (BD +61.03% -13.32% DVD TL -10.33% YTY)
02/01/09  (BD +68.41% -24.30% DVD TL -20.96% YTY)
01/25/09  (BD+165.35% -26.80% DVD TL -21.32% YTY)
01/18/09  (BD +62.99% -27.01% DVD TL -23.91% YTY)
01/11/09  (BD+207.95% -12.32% DVD TL - 4.75% YTY)
01/04/09  (BD+231.89% -12.88% DVD TL - 4.46% YTY)

[Kosty]

Damn you. you gave me a idea for another chart.

Here's the above YTY change percentage in week to week reported revenues graphed out.


You can see the couple times during the year, like on 1/4, 5/17 7/26 where the Blu-ray year to year changed dragged the total DVD + Blu-ray into positive territory.

Thats besides the times like 3/29 4/12 5/17 6/21 and 7/26 where the DVD change was enough to bring the YTY percentage into positive territory.

[Kosty]

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ques...9a#/12/OnePage

HMM digital magazine is up

[Kosty]

Latest digital magazine from Home Media Magazine on the week ending 8/16/09 is now up:

Link: http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ques....php?startid=2







[Other data brought down for context]

'I Love You, Man' tops video charts
Zac Efron's '17 Again' claims No. 2 spot

By Thomas K. Arnold
Aug 19, 2009, 05:25 PM ET

"I Love You, Man"
There was a lot of love in the home entertainment business last week.

Paramount Home Entertainment's DVD and Blu-ray Disc release of the DreamWorks buddy comedy "I Love You, Man" debuted in the top slot on all three charts the week ending August 16, beating Warner's "17 Again," another comedy title with a similar box office gross.

On the Nielsen VideoScan First Alert sales chart, "I Love You, Man" ($71.4 million box office) squeaked by "17 Again" ($64.2 million) to become the week's No. 1 seller. "17 Again" finished a close second, selling 89% as many units as "I Love You, Man."

On Home Media Magazine's video rental chart for the week, the two comedies also finished first and second, respectively, although "17 Again" only generated 64.7% as much rental action as "I Love You, Man."

And on the Nielsen VideoScan Blu-ray Disc chart, "I Love You, Man" outsold its second-ranked comedic competitor by a margin of more than 2 to 1.

Walt Disney Studios' "Race to Witch Mountain," the previous week's top seller, slipped to No. 3 on First Alert. A similar drop was experienced by "Obsessed," the previous week's top renter. And "Fast & Furious" finished the week at No. 4 on the Blu-ray Disc sales chart after ending the week before at No. 1.

"I Love You, Man" generated 12% of its total sales from Blu-ray Disc, while for "17 Again" Blu-ray accounted for just 6% of total unit sales.

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/res...ove-disc-16784


http://www.homemediamagazine.com/top...ek-ended-81609

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/top...ek-ended-81609

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/top...ek-ended-81609

[Kosty]

This data has been updated. Please go to the end pages of this thread for the latest versions.

[Kosty]

This data has been updated. Please go to the end pages of this thread for the latest versions.

[Kosty]

Top 20 Unit Sales Estimate Year to Year Comparison Summary (The-Numbers.com*HMM %)

Updated through 8/16/09 units data

Comparing the estimates for 1Q+2Q+ 2009 versus 1Q+2Q+ 2008 top 20 unit sales

 	   YTD x	YTD +%

Blu-ray	   2.43      +143.08 %
DVD	   1.11	      +10.57 %
DVD+BD	   1.18       +18.18 %

This data has been updated. Please go to the end pages of this thread for the latest versions.

[Kosty]

I get 13.149% for top 20 units... Close again.

2009_0816.xlr - 0.02MB

The actual number for the week of 8/16/09 Blu-ray top 20 unit share was 13.36%.

The BD Title share is now up in the published magazine.

What did you get for the week ending 9/16/09 with using 12.41% for the #1 Blu-ray title of I love you man, instead of the original 12.00%?

If I'm driving your spreadsheet right, I get a revised Final Guess of 13.564% based on a calculated result of 14.67% and the average offset of 1.11%.

So you final result would be 13.564%?

EDIT:

Revised calculations with two decimal places

My range is 11.32% to 14.72%, average of 13.02%.

The real number for the Blu-ray top 20 unit marketshare (old pie chart calculation is 13.36% for the week ending 9/16/09.

http://forums.highdefdigest.com/1652894-post2255.html

My base fill in the blank calculation still trends a point or so high, but both of our offsets put us hilariously close.

Did I get you revised calculation right?

[cakefoo]

13.579% actually. You can put the 12.41% in column E in the cell that corresponds with the #1 Blu-ray. That week it was the #1 DVD+BD title, so it goes in E10.

[Kosty]

13.579% actually. You can put the 12.41% in column E in the cell that corresponds with the #1 Blu-ray. That week it was the #1 DVD+BD title, so it goes in E10.

Gotcha.

Still amazingly close.

[Kosty]

First Report for week ending 8/23/09

'Hannah,' 'House' grab top video spots

'Dexter's' Season 3 DVD set takes No. 2 sales slot

By Thomas K. Arnold
Aug 26, 2009, 07:06 PM ET

"Hannah Montana: The Movie"
Music and murder dominated the national home video charts the week ending Aug. 23, as Walt Disney Studios Home Entertainment's "Hannah Montana: The Movie" debuted as the No. 1 seller and Universal Studios' gruesome "The Last House on the Left" bowed as the top renter.

"Hannah Montana," with nearly $80 million in box office earnings, handily took the No. 1 spot on both the Nielsen VideoScan First Alert sales chart and Nielsen's dedicated Blu-ray Disc sales chart.

Paramount's third-season set of "Dexter," the hit series about a vigilante serial killer, debuted at No. 2 on First Alert, a strong initial showing for a TV DVD series. "The Last House on the Left," a remake of the 1972 Wes Craven horror classic, bowed at No. 3 with Paramount/DreamWorks' "I Love You, Man," the previous week's top seller, landing at No. 4.

On the Blu-ray Disc sales chart, "Last House" debuted at No. 2 by selling 65% as many copies as "Hannah" -- not bad, considering the film grossed just $32.8 million in theaters, or 41% of what the Miley Cyrus film made.

Meanwhile, in the rental world, "Last House" was in high demand, snatching the No. 1 spot on Home Media Magazine's video rental chart from "I Love You, Man," which finished second by generating 69% as much rental action as the horror remake. Warner's "17 Again" placed third its second week in stores, while the No. 4 spot went to "Hannah Montana."

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/res...p-charts-16858

[Sbert]

First Report for week ending 8/23/09




http://www.homemediamagazine.com/res...p-charts-16858

Looks like a sub 10 percent week.

[Kosty]

Looks like a sub 10 percent week.

Good bet, since Hannah Montana is the top title, Its foreshadowed by not really highlighting the Blu-ray percentages either. Its like a couple weeks ago when Race to Witch Mountain was the number one title.

Only one more week of August left though.