2009 Blu-ray Sales Metrics Stats: Nielsen/Videoscan/HMM Charts/Ratios/Bestsellers Etc

[Kosty]

Originally Posted by cakefoo
Yeah. Kosty and my calculated predictions have been accurate to less than one percent since I started keeping track at the end of May. But then suddenly the last two weeks we're off by huge amounts.

I think one of you needs to write to the magazine to ask them how they are measuring the chart now. I hate to see Lee Stewart this happy.

Just so everyone is clear.

Home Media Magazine did change the pie chart to a revenue percentage, starting with the data for the week ending 7/19/09, in the issue dated July 27 - August 2, 2009.

Previous to that issue, the pie chart was a comparison of the Nielsen Videoscan first alert reported units sold of bestselling 20 DVD titles versus the units sold of the 20 bestselling DVD titles for the week.

The pie chart now is based on the revenue figures right beside it and now also includes the estimate for Wal-Mart system sales.

The last three weeks top 20 titles Blu-ray versus DVD unit marketshare percentages for Blu-ray were actually 13% 20% and the week ending 8/02/09 would have been published as 19% (18.51% actually rounded to 19%). They were reported by the pie chart as 8% and 16% respectfully.

[Kosty]

Starting August 2nd. Does that put it at the start of the next period or the end of the last one which we now have 32% for? It says "week ending August 2nd..."

Normally DVDs and Blu-ray are released on the Tuesday of the reporting week that ends on Sunday for Nielsen Videoscan and Saturday for Rentrak Video Essentials. We are using the Nielsen Videoscan figures here.

But the thought is when the Best Buy sale went live for the $9.99 version of Watchmen. The Best Buy sales circular went active on Sunday August 2, the last day of the reporting period.

So one day (Sunday August 2, 2009) of the $9.99 Best Buy DVD version of Watchmen sale is in the week ending 8/02/09 data. The Blu-ray share was still 30%.




http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6673887.html

[cakefoo]

Gran Torino went 14%>5%>15% when it went from regular>onsale>regular pricing. It also went onsale on a Sunday, so you'd think that must have had an effect on the first week sales, but it doesn't look like it. I don't know, it's too hard to predict what will happen. I'll just sit back and observe the numbers as they're released.

[Kosty]

Yes it is available, but no we don't know the BD title share. You're mistaking 4.5 for the complete series, I think. We do, however, know TCS's sales index relative to the #1 Blu-ray, F&F: we know that the Blu-ray sold more TCS's than 4.5's, and the DVD sold more 4.5's than TCS's.

It'll most likely show up on the Top 20 BD Title Share.

This is about the Blu-ray ratio on the complete BSG series set.

I think it has to be a pretty decent number based on the other ones there though. Unless there is a mistake in the overall top 20 chart (like the complete BSG series should be on there but it isn't) then it should be over 40% Blu-ray on the complete series.

The Complete series on Blu-ray sold 40% more copies than the Season 4.5 set on Blu-ray (this is from the top 20 Blu-ray list). The Season 4.5 release was a 9.64 ratio on the overall disc sales chart while the Complete series release had to be below a 2.61 ratio (since it isn't in the top 20 which ends at 2.61).

So for example if The Fast and The Furious sold 1,000,000 copies on disc then 200,000 of them would have been Blu-ray and 800,000 DVD. With these sample numbers, The BSG season 4.5 set would have sold 96,400 copies in total (with 7700 (8% of them) being Blu-ray and 88,700 being DVD). Using these numbers this would mean that the complete series Blu-ray set sold 10,800 copies on Blu-ray and had a market share of at least 41%. The #20 title in the overall sales list had a 2.61 ratio so it would have been 26,000 or so copies for the 21st entry (based on 1,000,000 for the #1 title). So 10,800/26,000 = 41%

Is this voodoo math or does it make sense to everyone?

I get the Blu-ray version of BSG complete series selling about the same number of units or better as the 4.5 Blu-ray version as it would have a higher relative index number scaled to the Top 20 Sellers Chart index for the week.

Actually I get it doing 42% more units, 1.09/0.77 = 1.42

Its Voodoo math but it makes sense. For the Blu-ray version of the BSG box set to have the same unit sales, and for the DVD version not show up on the Top 20 Sellers chart, the Blu-ray version must have about five times the marketshare.

8/2/2009					
BD%	DVD%	BD#	DVD#	Index	Top 20 Sellers
20%	80.0%	20.00	80.00	100	Fast & Furious
32%	68.0%	7.49	15.92	23.41	Watchmen
19%	81.0%	3.44	14.69	18.13	Coraline
22%	78.0%	2.66	9.43	12.09	Green Lantern: First Flight
8%	92.0%	0.77	8.87	9.64	Battlestar Galactica: Season 4.5
46%	54.0%	2.83	3.32	6.15	Taken
16%	84.0%	0.76	3.99	4.75	Dragonball: Evolution
17%	83.0%	0.76	3.72	4.48	Knowing
20%	80.0%	0.83	3.34	4.17	Dollhouse: Season One
28%	72.0%	1.16	2.97	4.13	The Fast and the Furious
15%	85.0%	0.58	3.31	3.89	Gran Torino
18%	82.0%	0.67	3.03	3.7	The Fast and the Furious:*Tokyo*Drift
8%	92.0%	0.28	3.21	3.49	The Haunting in*Connecticut
20%	80.0%	0.65	2.58	3.23	2 Fast 2 Furious
23%	77.0%	0.69	2.33	3.02	Torchwood: Children of Earth
9%	91.0%	0.26	2.60	2.86	Tim Burton's Corpse Bride
7%	93.0%	0.19	2.47	2.66	Harry Potter and the Order of the*Phoenix
15%	85.0%	0.40	2.24	2.64	Push
11%	89.0%	0.29	2.34	2.63	Twilight
10%	90.0%	0.26	2.35	2.61	Miss March
		44.97	172.71	217.68	
			0.00		
		0.2066	44.967	20.66%	
					
					
8/2/2009	BD 	BD#2	BD Index	Top 20 Blu-ray
		20.00		100.00	Fast & Furious
		7.49		36.61	Watchmen
		3.44		17.10	Coraline
		2.83		14.14	Taken
		2.66		12.97	Green Lantern: First Flight
		1.16		5.68	The Fast and the Furious
			1.10	5.46	Unforgiven
			1.10	5.42	V for Vendetta
			1.09	5.38	Battlestar Galactica: The Complete Series
			1.08	5.35	The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
			1.07	5.28	Slumdog Millionaire
			0.85	4.22	The Wrestler
		0.83		4.13	Dollhouse: Season One
		0.77		3.85	Battlestar Galactica: Season 4.5
		0.76		3.82	Dragonball: Evolution
		0.76		3.74	Knowing
		0.69		3.40	Torchwood: Children of Earth
		0.65		3.27	2 Fast 2 Furious
		0.67		3.24	The Fast and the Furious:*Tokyo*Drift
			0.61	3.04	Ghostbusters
		42.71	6.90		
					
		22.32%	49.61	Blu-ray indexs	
		77.68%	172.71	DVD Indexes	
			222.33

[Kosty]

Gotcha.

I don't see BSG Complete in the Top 20 Sellers but its slightly above the BSG 4.5 on the Blu-ray list. So pretty much the DVD Boxset sold poorly but the BD boxset sold better hence why the DVD boxset is not on the first list but the BD one is on the BD list. Makes sense. So it could be a crapshoot depending how well it actually sold

Jimbo976 and GizmoDVD :

Did my above post make sense?

I agree with Jimbo976, as I am have a deep and involved appreciation of voodoo math myself.

[Kosty]

Jimbo976 and GizmoDVD :

Did my above post make sense. I agree with Jimbo976, as I am have a deep and involved appreciation of voodoo math myself.

When the HMM issue is up on its digital version , we will get the BD Title Share chart . Since BSG the complete series is a new day and date release with concurrent DVD and Blu-ray versions it should show up there.


Here's last week ending 7/26/09 version of that chart. BSG The Complete Series should show up on the next one, the week ending 8/02/09 edition, which we will probably see on next Monday morning.

[Sbert]

I think it's great that they finally are comparing the complete market for BD vs DVD. I think a few of the studies saying that we would hit low 20 percent's in Q4 were right on the money. Early next year, looking at continue that trend.

Looks like the actual breakout year will be next year with this Q4 being the slingshot into BD being pushed into consumers throughout next year.

Once we hit 30 percent, I expect the market to react extremely favorably to BD as a whole.

[Kosty]

I think it's great that they finally are comparing the complete market for BD vs DVD. I think a few of the studies saying that we would hit low 20 percent's in Q4 were right on the money. Early next year, looking at continue that trend.

Looks like the actual breakout year will be next year with this Q4 being the slingshot into BD being pushed into consumers throughout next year.

Once we hit 30 percent, I expect the market to react extremely favorably to BD as a whole.

30% is commonly seen as a retail tipping point for crossover from a old product category to its successor. Thats where the new category starts getting more floor space and more facing allocations on the shelves.

Now DVD as a category is in a class by itself because of its unit volumes and amount of gross revenues, so it may not be displaced as fast, especially for new releases.

But in that case, a growing Blu-ray category would crowd out other retail space, like Wal-Mart killing off the fabric and sewing departments to expand the electronics departments in its retail space allocation.

[Kosty]

I think it's great that they finally are comparing the complete market for BD vs DVD. I think a few of the studies saying that we would hit low 20 percent's in Q4 were right on the money. Early next year, looking at continue that trend.

Looks like the actual breakout year will be next year with this Q4 being the slingshot into BD being pushed into consumers throughout next year.

Once we hit 30 percent, I expect the market to react extremely favorably to BD as a whole.

As the year picks up with better titles, the top 20 titles and new releases revenue will also gain a larger share of the overall format revenues as well.

So as Blu-ray gains in top 20 unit share it will also gain in revenues as those are the bestselling and highest revenue units that are sold. That lessons the impact of the cheap DVD titles that are sold revenue wise. Not only that, but the new releases are what the studios and retailers care about as those generate the profits and drive traffic into the store.

[GizmoDVD]

But in that case, a growing Blu-ray category would crowd out other retail space, like Wal-Mart killing off the fabric and sewing departments to expand the electronics departments in its retail space allocation.

Should have been done years ago. Why they need a fabric department in 2009 boggles me.

[HD Goofnut]

Should have been done years ago. Why they need a fabric department in 2009 boggles me.

I say kill of the jewelry department. I mean honestly who would want to tell their wife they picked up their anniversary gift from Wal-Mart?

[GizmoDVD]

I say kill of the jewelry department. I mean honestly who would want to tell their wife they picked up their anniversary gift from Wal-Mart?

Gonna blow your mind right now:
http://www.eonline.com/uberblog/b132...and_Cheap.html

As we're serenaded by Death Cab for Cutie's poignant "I'll Follow You Into the Dark," we follow schlubby daddy-to-be Gary into Wal-Mart.

To back up a bit, Gary is the stud that knocked up teenaged Amber. They're shacked up in a small apartment in Indiana, hurting for money. Gary is also the guy who—shortly before Amber pops—spends $500 on a PlayStation 3. For himself.

Now Gary waddles into Wal-Mart (Save money. Live better) to drop almost $22 on a wedding ring for his special lady, meaning he may have to go without chili cheese fries for a whole day.

[neone]

Just so everyone is clear.

Home Media Magazine did change the pie chart to a revenue percentage, starting with the data for the week ending 7/19/09, in the issue dated July 27 - August 2, 2009.

Previous to that issue, the pie chart was a comparison of the Nielsen Videoscan first alert reported units sold of bestselling 20 DVD titles versus the units sold of the 20 bestselling DVD titles for the week.

The pie chart now is based on the revenue figures right beside it and now also includes the estimate for Wal-Mart system sales.

The last three weeks top 20 titles Blu-ray versus DVD unit marketshare percentages for Blu-ray were actually 13% 20% and the week ending 8/02/09 would have been published as 19% (18.51% actually rounded to 19%). They were reported by the pie chart as 8% and 16% respectfully.

The pie chart is now Total Revenue of BD : DVD ? Not just top 20? If that's the case, I say the true 15% marginot line was crossed by Watchmen week (total revenue is a tougher nut as number of BD titles are still small compared to total historical DVD releases) , and it will be crossing a lot more in the coming weeks.

[Kosty]

The pie chart is now Total Revenue of BD : DVD ? Not just top 20? ...

Yep, but I will still get or can calculate out the traditional top 20 unit sales data.

... If that's the case, I say the true 15% marginot line was crossed by Watchmen week (total revenue is a tougher nut as number of BD titles are still small compared to total historical DVD releases) , and it will be crossing a lot more in the coming weeks.

Yes the Blu-ray format had a 16.11% revenue share of all DVD+BD sales for that week.

The top 20 unit share for Blu-ray was 20% for that week ending 7/26/09. The pie chart showed 16:84.

Home Media Magazine's pie chart is now going to be the revenue share.

That change affected the last two weeks, and it will be like that going forward.

We will still get the top 20 share or can calculate it out even if it will not be published.

The top 20 unit share for the week ending 7/19/09 was actually 13% instead of 8% and week ending 7/26/09 was actually 20% instead of 16%.

Yes. It will be based on the revenues for each format based on all titles and units sold, including Wal-Mart.

Its the same as the already published revenue numbers that are based on the weekly Nielsen Videoscan first alert report and a plus up by HMM's modeling to add in the estimated Wal-Mart revenues that are not in the Nielsen Videoscan data.

The pie chart now will be the percentages based on the reported revenues for each format that will be right next to it. That will be the total for each format , including Wal-Mart sales.

I will get the former top 20 DVD unit versus top 20 Blu-ray calculation number offline to confirm our calculations based on the Top 20 Sellers and Top 20 Blu-ray charts. But it will not be published going forward on their website nor their digital nor print editions. The new pie chart will just be a graph of the revenue numbers.

[Bathawk]

aww I appreciate all the work Kosty does, but looked forward to checking in on the pie chart each week