08-06-2009 01:33 PM #2131Originally Posted by cakefoo
Yeah. Kosty and my calculated predictions have been accurate to less than one percent since I started keeping track at the end of May. But then suddenly the last two weeks we're off by huge amounts.
Home Media Magazine did change the pie chart to a revenue percentage, starting with the data for the week ending 7/19/09, in the issue dated July 27 - August 2, 2009.
Previous to that issue, the pie chart was a comparison of the Nielsen Videoscan first alert reported units sold of bestselling 20 DVD titles versus the units sold of the 20 bestselling DVD titles for the week.
The pie chart now is based on the revenue figures right beside it and now also includes the estimate for Wal-Mart system sales.
The last three weeks top 20 titles Blu-ray versus DVD unit marketshare percentages for Blu-ray were actually 13% 20% and the week ending 8/02/09 would have been published as 19% (18.51% actually rounded to 19%). They were reported by the pie chart as 8% and 16% respectfully.
08-06-2009 01:55 PM #2132
But the thought is when the Best Buy sale went live for the $9.99 version of Watchmen. The Best Buy sales circular went active on Sunday August 2, the last day of the reporting period.
So one day (Sunday August 2, 2009) of the $9.99 Best Buy DVD version of Watchmen sale is in the week ending 8/02/09 data. The Blu-ray share was still 30%.
08-06-2009 02:37 PM #2133
Gran Torino went 14%>5%>15% when it went from regular>onsale>regular pricing. It also went onsale on a Sunday, so you'd think that must have had an effect on the first week sales, but it doesn't look like it. I don't know, it's too hard to predict what will happen. I'll just sit back and observe the numbers as they're released.
08-06-2009 03:18 PM #2134Originally Posted by Jimbo976
I get the Blu-ray version of BSG complete series selling about the same number of units or better as the 4.5 Blu-ray version as it would have a higher relative index number scaled to the Top 20 Sellers Chart index for the week.
Actually I get it doing 42% more units, 1.09/0.77 = 1.42
Its Voodoo math but it makes sense. For the Blu-ray version of the BSG box set to have the same unit sales, and for the DVD version not show up on the Top 20 Sellers chart, the Blu-ray version must have about five times the marketshare.
8/2/2009 BD% DVD% BD# DVD# Index Top 20 Sellers 20% 80.0% 20.00 80.00 100 Fast & Furious 32% 68.0% 7.49 15.92 23.41 Watchmen 19% 81.0% 3.44 14.69 18.13 Coraline 22% 78.0% 2.66 9.43 12.09 Green Lantern: First Flight 8% 92.0% 0.77 8.87 9.64 Battlestar Galactica: Season 4.5 46% 54.0% 2.83 3.32 6.15 Taken 16% 84.0% 0.76 3.99 4.75 Dragonball: Evolution 17% 83.0% 0.76 3.72 4.48 Knowing 20% 80.0% 0.83 3.34 4.17 Dollhouse: Season One 28% 72.0% 1.16 2.97 4.13 The Fast and the Furious 15% 85.0% 0.58 3.31 3.89 Gran Torino 18% 82.0% 0.67 3.03 3.7 The Fast and the Furious:*Tokyo*Drift 8% 92.0% 0.28 3.21 3.49 The Haunting in*Connecticut 20% 80.0% 0.65 2.58 3.23 2 Fast 2 Furious 23% 77.0% 0.69 2.33 3.02 Torchwood: Children of Earth 9% 91.0% 0.26 2.60 2.86 Tim Burton's Corpse Bride 7% 93.0% 0.19 2.47 2.66 Harry Potter and the Order of the*Phoenix 15% 85.0% 0.40 2.24 2.64 Push 11% 89.0% 0.29 2.34 2.63 Twilight 10% 90.0% 0.26 2.35 2.61 Miss March 44.97 172.71 217.68 0.00 0.2066 44.967 20.66% 8/2/2009 BD BD#2 BD Index Top 20 Blu-ray 20.00 100.00 Fast & Furious 7.49 36.61 Watchmen 3.44 17.10 Coraline 2.83 14.14 Taken 2.66 12.97 Green Lantern: First Flight 1.16 5.68 The Fast and the Furious 1.10 5.46 Unforgiven 1.10 5.42 V for Vendetta 1.09 5.38 Battlestar Galactica: The Complete Series 1.08 5.35 The Curious Case of Benjamin Button 1.07 5.28 Slumdog Millionaire 0.85 4.22 The Wrestler 0.83 4.13 Dollhouse: Season One 0.77 3.85 Battlestar Galactica: Season 4.5 0.76 3.82 Dragonball: Evolution 0.76 3.74 Knowing 0.69 3.40 Torchwood: Children of Earth 0.65 3.27 2 Fast 2 Furious 0.67 3.24 The Fast and the Furious:*Tokyo*Drift 0.61 3.04 Ghostbusters 42.71 6.90 22.32% 49.61 Blu-ray indexs 77.68% 172.71 DVD Indexes 222.33
Last edited by Kosty; 08-06-2009 at 03:29 PM.
08-06-2009 03:34 PM #2135
08-06-2009 03:38 PM #2136
Here's last week ending 7/26/09 version of that chart. BSG The Complete Series should show up on the next one, the week ending 8/02/09 edition, which we will probably see on next Monday morning.
08-06-2009 03:41 PM #2137
I think it's great that they finally are comparing the complete market for BD vs DVD. I think a few of the studies saying that we would hit low 20 percent's in Q4 were right on the money. Early next year, looking at continue that trend.
Looks like the actual breakout year will be next year with this Q4 being the slingshot into BD being pushed into consumers throughout next year.
Once we hit 30 percent, I expect the market to react extremely favorably to BD as a whole.
08-06-2009 03:47 PM #2138
Now DVD as a category is in a class by itself because of its unit volumes and amount of gross revenues, so it may not be displaced as fast, especially for new releases.
But in that case, a growing Blu-ray category would crowd out other retail space, like Wal-Mart killing off the fabric and sewing departments to expand the electronics departments in its retail space allocation.
08-06-2009 03:54 PM #2139
As the year picks up with better titles, the top 20 titles and new releases revenue will also gain a larger share of the overall format revenues as well.
So as Blu-ray gains in top 20 unit share it will also gain in revenues as those are the bestselling and highest revenue units that are sold. That lessons the impact of the cheap DVD titles that are sold revenue wise. Not only that, but the new releases are what the studios and retailers care about as those generate the profits and drive traffic into the store.
08-06-2009 06:57 PM #2140Banned
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08-06-2009 11:41 PM #2141Panasonic TC-L55ET5 55" 360Hz LED 3D 1080p HDTV
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08-07-2009 12:22 AM #2142Banned
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As we're serenaded by Death Cab for Cutie's poignant "I'll Follow You Into the Dark," we follow schlubby daddy-to-be Gary into Wal-Mart.
To back up a bit, Gary is the stud that knocked up teenaged Amber. They're shacked up in a small apartment in Indiana, hurting for money. Gary is also the guy who—shortly before Amber pops—spends $500 on a PlayStation 3. For himself.
Now Gary waddles into Wal-Mart (Save money. Live better) to drop almost $22 on a wedding ring for his special lady, meaning he may have to go without chili cheese fries for a whole day.
08-07-2009 11:51 AM #2143
08-07-2009 12:11 PM #2144
... If that's the case, I say the true 15% marginot line was crossed by Watchmen week (total revenue is a tougher nut as number of BD titles are still small compared to total historical DVD releases) , and it will be crossing a lot more in the coming weeks.
The top 20 unit share for Blu-ray was 20% for that week ending 7/26/09. The pie chart showed 16:84.
Originally Posted by KostyOriginally Posted by Kosty
08-07-2009 05:55 PM #2145Member
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aww I appreciate all the work Kosty does, but looked forward to checking in on the pie chart each weekBlu-Ray Movies:
300, Casino Royale, Dark Knight, Fletch, Ghost Rider, Incredible Hulk, Shoot Em' Up, Transporter 2, Transformers, Troy, V for Vendetta
Dazed and Confused....no not the movie, just perplexed why you think I would own any
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