2009 Blu-ray Sales Metrics Stats: Nielsen/Videoscan/HMM Charts/Ratios/Bestsellers Etc

[Kosty]

$14.06 M for Blu-ray, $147.14 for DVD for a possible new base floor of Blu-ray revenues with a week of no new day and date releases is not a bad thing either.

[Kosty]

BD share per title, launches aligned.

Action/horror/thriller

Date    Title                     Genre       W1  W2  W3  W4  W5  W6  W7  W8
051909  24: Season 7              Action (TV) 15  12
        My Bloody Valentine 3D    Horror      21  16
        True Blood Season 1       Horror (TV) 14  12
        Valkyrie                  War         20  18
051209  Taken                     Action      20  18  17
        Underworld: Rise Lycans   Horror      16  17  18
        S. Darko                  Horror      12   -   -
042809  The Uninvited             Horror      10   9   9   -   -
041409  The Spirit                Action      24  19  17  17   -   -   -
040709  Day the Earth Stood Still Sci-Fi      21  20  19  20  21  21  22  29
032409  Quantum of Solace         Action      28  27  24  22  23  24  26  25
031709  Punisher: War Zone        Action      19  16  15  46   -   -   -   -
031009  Let the Right One In      Horror      22   -   -   -   -   -   -   -
        Transporter 3             Action      19  15  16  17  43  23   -   -
021709  Body of Lies              Thriller    21  18  21  20  21  23   -  60
        Midnight Meat Train       Horror      16   -  -    -   -   -   -   -
        Quarantine                Horror      16  13  12  12   -   -   -   -
012709  Lakeview Terrace          Thriller     9   9   5  16   -   -   -   -
        RockNRolla                Action      23  22   -   -   -   -   -   -
012009  Max Payne                 Action      21  18  12  16  14  16  22   -
        Saw V                     Horror      11   9   7   -   -   -   -   -
011309  Mirrors                   Horror      13  12  16   -   -   -   -   -
010609  Babylon A.D.              Action       -  18  21  24  18   -   -   -
        Bangkok Dangerous         Thriller     -  17  16   -  14   -   -   -
        Righteous Kill            Thriller     -  14  17  19  16   -   -   -
122708  Eagle Eye                 Thriller     -   -   -  21  24  48  25  21
122108  Death Race                Action       -   -   -  22  21  27   -   -
121608  The Mummy: Tomb...        Action       -   -   -   -  18  22  21  18
120908  The Dark Knight           Action       -   -   -   -   -  31  30  28
120208  Wanted                    Action       -   -   -   -   -   -  25  28

Comedy/animation/musical/other

Date    Title                     Genre       W1  W2  W3  W4  W5  W6  W7  W8
052609  New in Town               Comedy       4
051909  Paul Blart: Mall Cop      Comedy       7   7
051209  Cavalcade Cartoon Comedy  Animation   14  14   -
050509  Curious Case of B. Button Drama       14  14  12  11
        Last Chance Harvey        Drama        4   4   -   -
042809  Bride Wars                Comedy       5   6   6   5   6
        Hotel for Dogs            Comedy       3   3   3   4   -
        The Reader [1]            Drama       19   6   -   -   -
042109  Frost/Nixon               Drama       12  11  10   -   -   -
        Notorious                 Drama       12  11  11  11   -   -
        The Wrestler              Drama       19  16  16  17   -   -
040709  Doubt                     Drama        9   8   8   8   9   -   -   -
        Not Easily Broken         Drama        -   3   -   -   -   -   -   -
        Tale of Despereaux        Animation    4   6   6   6   8   -   -   -
        Yes Man                   Comedy      10  10  11  10  10  11   -   -
033109  Bedtime Stories           Comedy      13   8  10  10  10  10  10   -
        Marley & Me               Comedy       7   6   7   7   8   5  10  10
        Seven Pounds              Drama        9   8   9  10  10   4  16   -
        Slumdog Millionaire       Drama       13  11  13  13  13   9  14  16
032409  Tales Black Freighter     Animation   23   -   -   -   -   -   -   -
032209  Bolt                      Animation   20  13   7   2  10  11  11  10
032109  Twilight                  Fantasy      7   8   8   9   9   -  12  25
031009  Cadillac Records          Drama        6   6   -   -   -   -   -   -
        Milk                      Drama       10  10   9   7   -   -   -   -
        Rachel Getting Married    Drama        5   5   -   -   -   -   -   -
        Role Models               Comedy      12  11  12  11  10  10  11  13
        South Park 12th Season    Animation    8   7   -   -   -   -   -   -
030309  Australia                 Drama       12  13  12  14  11  14  12  15
        Beverly Hills Chihuahua   Comedy       3   3   3   -   3   1   6   6
        Watchmen Motion Comic     Animation   29   -   -  23   -   -   -   -
        Wonder Woman              Animation   14  13   -   -   -   -   -   -
022409  Futurama Into the Wild... Animation   10   9   -   -   -   -   -   -
        Sex Drive                 Comedy      13  10  12   -   -   -   -   -
021709  Changeling                Drama        8   8   9   9   9   -   -   -
        High School Musical 3     Musical      5   6   4   3   3   3   3   1
021009  Miracle at St. Anna       Drama       18  17  19  18  12   -   -   -
        Nights in Rodanthe        Romance      8   6   7   7   -   -   -   -
        Soul Men                  Comedy       4   -   -   -   -   -   -   -
        W.                        Drama        9   8   -   -   -   -   -   -
020309  Afro Samurai Resurrection Animation   19   -   -   -   -   -   -   -
        Madagascar Escape 2       Animation    9   8   6  13  12  10  12   4
        Nick and Norah's...       Comedy       8   8   -   -   -   -   -   -
        Rent: Filmed Live...      Musical     15   -   -   -   -   -   -   -
        The Secret Life of Bees   Drama        3   4   4   -   -   -   -   -
        Space Buddies             Family       3   3   2   -   3   -   -   -
        Zack and Miri Make...     Comedy      11  10  12  15  15  16  17  17
012709  Hulk Vs.                  Animation   16  13  13   -   -   -   -   -
        Open Season 2             Animation    3   4   4   -   -   -   -   -
        Pride and Glory           Drama       17  14  16  16   -   -   -   -
        Vicky Cristina Barcelona  Comedy       7   -  15   -   -   -   -   -
012009  Igor                      Animation    6   8   -   -   -   -   -   -
        The Express               Drama       10   -   -   -   -   -   -   -
011309  Appaloosa                 Western     12  14  13  13  17   -   -   -
        My Best Friend's Girl     Comedy       8   8   -   -   -   -   -   -
        Swing Vote                Comedy       6   -   -   -   -   -   -   -
010609  Pineapple Express         Comedy       -   -  12  12  13  13  15  12
122308  Burn After Reading        Comedy       -   -   -  12   -   -   -   -
121608  Mamma Mia!                Musical      -   -   -   -   9  11  11   9
120908  Horton Hears a Who!       Animated     -   -   -   -   -   8  11   -
120208  Step Brothers             Comedy       -   -   -   -   -   -  12  16

[1] The Reader was released on DVD on April 14 and on BD on April 28.

hat tip Grubert

[Kosty]

Not a prediction though, but the DVD Total Box Office Power and Blu-ray releases look much better from here to the end of the year. The week ending 5/31/09 (this newest data) looks to me like it will be the lowest week from here on out for Blu-ray sales.

$14 M with ZERO new movie day and date releases for Blu-ray was a little better than I thought it would do. If thats the new floor, its a very good thing.

[Kosty]

This data has been updated. Please go to the end pages of this thread for the latest versions.

[Kosty]

This data has been updated. Please go to the end pages of this thread for the latest versions.

[Kosty]

This data has been updated. Please go to the end pages of this thread for the latest versions.

[cakefoo]

Week ended June 7

Top 20 Sellers


Top 20 Blu-ray

[cakefoo]

Spreadsheet says 13% for Blu-ray. Since my calculations have been high an average of 1.1%, my prediction will be 12%.

[Onslaught X]

Yay FFVII, a bit disappointing it didn't end up at #1!

[Kosty]

Did I miss much? Back from NYC now.

OK, for the week ending 6/7/09 for the top 20 unit pie chart I get 12.02% as a base number and I get 12.16% when I adjust for two missing Blu-ray titles in the top 20 list. When I adjust for +- 0.05% for the #1 title (100.00 index) He's Just Not that Into You market share, I range from 12.04% to 12.29%. When I adjust the Blu-ray title with the most impact market share (Defiance, at 17.5% BD share, 52.32 Index) I get a range of 12.10% to 12.23%. When I do both, change the rounding of the #1 Top 20 Seller title and the Blu-ray title with the most Blu-ray market share and impact, I get a maximum range or 11.98% and 12.35%.

All of the above round off to 12%, so my prediction for the Blu-ray share of the top 20 unit pie chart for the week ending 6/7/09 is 12% as well.

 6/7/2009					
BD%	DVD%	BD#	DVD#	Index	
5.0%	95.0%	5.00	95.00	100	He's Just Not that Into You
17.0%	83.0%	8.89	43.43	52.32	Defiance
17.0%	83.0%	4.91	23.96	28.87	Weeds: Season Four
7.0%	93.0%	1.92	25.45	27.37	Paul Blart: Mall Cop
17.0%	83.0%	4.46	21.78	26.24	Taken
10.0%	90.0%	2.57	23.09	25.65	Revolutionary Road
17.0%	83.0%	2.79	13.64	16.43	Valkyrie
11.0%	89.0%	1.62	13.09	14.71	The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
4.0%	96.0%	0.50	11.99	12.49	New in Town
13.0%	87.0%	1.58	10.57	12.15	Twilight
16.0%	84.0%	1.89	9.90	11.79	Underworld: Rise of the Lycans
12.0%	88.0%	1.41	10.33	11.74	True Blood: The Complete First Season
0.0%	100.0%	0.00	9.93	9.93	Prison Break: Season 4
3.0%	97.0%	0.29	9.41	9.7	Hotel for Dogs
15.0%	85.0%	1.34	7.62	8.96	My Bloody Valentine 3-D
0.0%	100.0%	0.00	8.77	8.77	The Sandlot
97.0%	3.0%	7.45	0.23	7.68	Final Fantasy VII: Advent Children
10.0%	90.0%	0.76	6.87	7.63	Twister
15.0%	85.0%	1.10	6.22	7.32	Bolt
6.0%	94.0%	0.42	6.59	7.01	Troy: Director's Cut
		48.90	357.86	406.76	
		0.58			
		0.1202	49.478	0.1216

[Kosty]

Yay FFVII, a bit disappointing it didn't end up at #1!

97% Blu-ray market share. Guess you needed a PS3 to even know what it was.

[Kosty]

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/...b46ef5dc983743

'Into You' tops video charts

'Defiance' debuts at No. 2; 'Paul Blart' finishes third

By Thomas K. Arnold
June 10, 2009, 06:08 PM ET

"He's Just Not That Into You"
People are really into "He's Just Not That Into You," the comedy from Warner Home Video that grossed $93.9 million in U.S. theaters earlier this year.

The film debuted at No. 1 on the national home video sales as well as rental charts the week ending June 7, at a time when high-profile theatricals are few and far between and studios are filling the gap with DVD and Blu-ray Disc editions of popular TV shows.

On the Nielsen VideoScan First Alert sales chart, "Into You" was followed at No. 2 by fellow newcomer "Defiance," a drama from Paramount with a domestic boxoffice gross of just $28.6 million.

The third spot on the sales chart went to Season 4 of the popular TV series "Weeds," from Lionsgate. Other TV season sets that scored high in the sales department were Season 1 of the HBO series "True Blood," which in its third week in stores held fast at No. 12, and Season 4 of "Prison Break," from 20th Century Fox, which debuted at No. 13.

On Home Media Magazine's rental chart for the week, "Into You" and "Defiance" also scored a one-two finish, bumping to No. 3 Sony Pictures' "Paul Blart: Mall Cop," which spent the two previous week's at No. 1.

20th Century Fox's "Taken" slipped to No. 4 from No. 2, while the fifth spot went to another Paramount drama, "Revolutionary Road," which generated only $22.9 million in theaters even though its two leads are Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet.

"Revolutionary Road" debuted at No. 6 on First Alert, behind "Paul Blart: Mall Cop" at No. 4 and "Taken" at No. 5.

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/tks-take/inside-charts

Inside the Charts

By Thomas K. Arnold | Posted: 10 Jun 2009
tarnold@questex.com,

Warner Home Video's He's Just Not That Into You swept the national home video sales and rental charts its first week in stores, in large part because it was the only big theatrical title to arrive in stores the week ending June 7. You can read the full story by clicking here. But you didn't come here just for the traditional 220-word chart story, did you?

You came for a more thorough inspection of the weekly sales and rental charts, and that, dear reader, is what you shall receive, in the form of eight points of interest.

1. Of the Nielsen VideoScan First Alert for the week ending June 7, six of the top 20 sellers are new releases. Of the holdovers, two have been on the chart for three months: Summit Entertainment's Twilight, which actually rose to No. 10 from No. 13 the previous week, and Walt Disney Home Entertainment's Bolt (No. 19 this week, No. 9 last week).

2. Lionsgate's season four set of "Weeds," the week's top-selling TV release, generated a healthy 17% of its total sales from the Blu-ray Disc edition.

3. Defiance was the top-selling Blu-ray Disc for the week, followed closely by Final Fantasy 7: Advent Children, which sold 87% as many copies as Defiance. That's significant, our market research director, Kelly Burner, tells me, because Final Fantasy appeals to a niche anime/video game fan demographic and has been out on DVD for more than a year.(This information didn't make it into the regular chart story because the data was late this week.) In fact, Blu-ray sales were so strong that they propelled Final Fantasy back into the overall top 20 sellers list (it was No. 17).

4. The top-selling title so far this year continues to be Twilight, by far. The year's No. 2 seller, Bolt, and No. 3 seller, 20th Century Fox's Marley & Me, sold fewer copies, combined, than Twilight did on its own.

5. The theatrical catalog market can't seem to shake its doldrums. Recent catalog releases just aren't showing up in the First Alert top 20, and even if you dig deeper, you'll find Blu-ray Disc fans aren't rushing out and replacing their libraries. Two catalog titles that are bubbling under the top 20, Seven and Dodgeball, aren't even available on Blu-ray Disc.

6. Only three new releases made it into Home Media Magazine's top 50 rental list for the week ending June 7, which shows you that the rental business, which used to be home to all sorts of adventurous home video explorers, is now largely a matter of convenience and is as hit-driven as sellthrough, if not more.

7. Rental customers also don't mind waiting. After three weeks, Paul Blart: Mall Cop is still the country's No. 3 rental, and the falloff between this week and last week is just 18%.

8. Even though it's a classic sellthrough title, the 20th Century Fox family film Marley & Me is still among the nation's top 20 rentals more than two months after its release. Indeed, it's tied for 20th place with Sony Pictures' Seven Pounds, released the same day but a much more typical rental title.

[Kosty]

Disney sees opportunity in Blu-ray growth

PHYSICAL: Studio predicts high-def format sales will rise
By Danny King -- Video Business, 6/9/2009

JUNE 9 | PHYSICAL: Blu-ray Disc growth will be key in ensuring that home entertainment sales don’t plunge over the next few years, as standard-definition disc sales fall faster than revenue from digital downloads and video streaming rises, Walt Disney Co.’s chief financial officer Thomas Staggs said at the Credit Suisse Global Media and Communications Convergence Conference in Dana Point, Calif., today.

With higher-priced Blu-ray discs currently accounting for one out of every nine discs sold or rented, sales of the high-definition format will rise as more people own HDTVs and studios include more features on the format, Staggs said.

Disney will benefit from higher Blu-ray demand because its sell-through relative to rentals is higher than most other studios, according to Staggs.

“The wildcard in the middle is high-definition and how fast that grows,” said Staggs. “Therein lies the opportunity.”

In the first quarter of this year, sales of Blu-ray discs more than doubled to about $230 million.

Disney hasn’t been immune to the DVD spending downturn, reporting last month that its studio entertainment unit’s earnings for the quarter ended March 28 plunged 97% as DVD titles such as High School Musical 3: Senior Year failed to keep pace with year-earlier releases such as Enchanted and No Country for Old Men. The division’s sales dropped 21% despite having five of the first quarter’s Top 10 selling DVDs.

“There’s good reason to believe the home entertainment market has some opportunity to at least be able to be maintained as a strong market,” Staggs said. “There’s room for continued growth in the high-def format.”

http://www.videobusiness.com/article...dustryid=47213

[Kosty]

This data has been updated. Please go to the end pages of this thread for the latest versions.

[Kosty]

This data has been updated. Please go to the end pages of this thread for the latest versions.