2009 Blu-ray Sales Metrics Stats: Nielsen/Videoscan/HMM Charts/Ratios/Bestsellers Etc

[Kosty]

I'm not sure if that fits your new method or not, but I think its something to do with the missing Index numbers for the DVD titles to be INDEX = DVD+BD where the DVD contribution would be the DVD part only.

[cakefoo]

I'm trying to inflate the DVD indexes as much as possible since my final share %'s have been consistently favoring Blu-ray. I removed the two titles that, when calculating the DVD index, result in less than 4.73, and replaced those titles with hypothetical films that have a 4.73 all formats index and a 100% DVD share. If you think about it, there's no possible way that I'm underestimating DVD's sales, because no bumped title- even if it had a 100% DVD share- could possibly have an index higher than 4.73.

What you see here is before the adjustment:


And this is after:

[Kosty]

Well heres how it shows if I take the top 20 Sellers chart for 5/24/09

I get 13.80% , they said 14% on the pie chart (0% off)

BD%	DVD%	BD#	DVD#	Index	
0.07	93%	7.00	93.00	100.00	Paul Blart: Mall Cop
0.20	80%	13.35	53.38	66.73	Valkyrie
0.18	82%	9.86	44.91	54.77	Taken
0.14	86%	4.70	28.86	33.56	True Blood: The Complete First Season
0.21	79%	6.63	24.94	31.57	My Bloody Valentine 3D
0.17	83%	5.25	25.64	30.89	Underworld: Rise of the Lycans
0.15	85%	2.99	16.96	19.95	24: Season 7
0.12	88%	1.96	14.35	16.31	The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
0.00	100%	0.00	8.50	8.50	Fanboys
0.08	92%	0.68	7.80	8.48	Bolt
0.12	88%	0.87	6.38	7.25	Twilight
0.10	90%	0.70	6.29	6.99	Wrestlemania: 25th Anniversary
0.04	96%	0.27	6.60	6.87	Hotel for Dogs
0.05	95%	0.34	6.51	6.85	Bride Wars
0.07	93%	0.46	6.10	6.56	Wall-E
0.04	96%	0.24	5.75	5.99	Cars
0.66	34%	3.75	1.93	5.68	Terminator 2: Judgment Day
0.00	100%	0.00	5.42	5.42	Friday Night Lights: The Third Season
0.12	88%	0.64	4.66	5.30	Twister
0.00	100%	0.00	4.73	4.73	The Sandlot
		59.68	372.72	432.40	
					
		0.1380

[Kosty]

I think that means I was low on a few weeks like 5/24 and high on 5/17.

[Kosty]

I'm trying to inflate the DVD indexes as much as possible since my final share %'s have been consistently favoring Blu-ray. I removed the two titles that, when calculating the DVD index, result in less than 4.73, and replaced those titles with hypothetical films that have a 4.73 all formats index and a 100% DVD share. If you think about it, there's no possible way that I'm underestimating DVD's sales, because no bumped title- even if it had a 100% DVD share- could possibly have an index higher than 4.73.

Yeah, I see the logic there.

It does not seem to be the bumped titles. Can we (in your revised Blu-ray additions) be overestimating the Blu-ray share with those added Blu-ray titles??

[Kosty]

I'm going to recheck the last few weeks. Maybe I screwed up a calculation in the heat of the moment , I'd be happy if all of my quick calculations ended up a little low consistently, as at least that would give us a " at least" heads up. But when I'm over the number, that mucks that thought up.

[Kosty]

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/news-list/Research

heres the link that has all the weekly narrative stories . Those stories have the links to the posted spreadsheets that you can cut and paste.

[cakefoo]

Yeah, I see the logic there.

It does not seem to be the bumped titles. Can we (in your revised Blu-ray additions) be overestimating the Blu-ray share with those added Blu-ray titles??

Revised Blu-ray? You mean, in the same way that I'm substituting DVD titles? I don't use the All Formats Top 20 for Blu- I use the Blu-ray Top 20.

[cakefoo]

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/news-list/Research

heres the link that has all the weekly narrative stories . Those stories have the links to the posted spreadsheets that you can cut and paste.

Oooh, thanks. I've usually been going back through this thread page by page for those charts.

[Kosty]

5/17/09 I got 16.69% HMM published 15% (2% high)

BD%	DVD%	BD#	DVD#	Index	
20%	80%	20.00	80.00	100	Taken
16%	84%	10.12	53.14	63.26	Underworld: Rise of the Lycans
14%	86%	2.75	16.88	19.63	The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
3%	97%	0.21	6.84	7.05	Hotel for Dogs
6%	94%	0.40	6.19	6.59	Bride Wars
7%	93%	0.44	5.80	6.24	Bolt
14%	86%	0.74	4.52	5.26	Twilight
4%	96%	0.20	4.92	5.12	Last Chance*Harvey
14%	86%	0.69	4.24	4.93	Cavalcade of Cartoon Comedy
55%	45%	2.71	2.22	4.93	Underworld Trilogy
0%	100%	0.00	4.01	4.01	Two and a Half Men: Season Five
10%	90%	0.37	3.32	3.69	Marley & Me
14%	86%	0.49	2.99	3.48	Slumdog Millionaire
16%	84%	0.54	2.86	3.4	The Da Vinci Code
12%	88%	0.40	2.93	3.33	S. Darko: A Donnie Darko Tale
25%	75%	0.80	2.39	3.19	Quantum of Solace
10%	90%	0.31	2.82	3.13	Bedtime Stories
7%	93%	0.21	2.85	3.06	Twister
35%	65%	0.97	1.81	2.78	Star Trek: Motion Picture Trilogy
12%	88%	0.32	2.37	2.69	Pinocchio: Platinum Edition
		42.68	213.09	255.77	
					
		0.1669

[Kosty]

Revised Blu-ray? You mean, in the same way that I'm substituting DVD titles? I don't use the All Formats Top 20 for Blu- I use the Blu-ray Top 20.

I meant the way you were using the Blu-ray top 20 to find the bumped Blu-ray titles.

[Kosty]

5/10/09 I get 9.87% HMM published 10% (0% off)

BD%	DVD%	BD#	DVD#	Index	
14%	86%	14.00	86.00	100	The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
4%	96%	1.07	25.56	26.63	Last Chance*Harvey
6%	94%	1.48	23.13	24.61	Bride Wars
3%	97%	0.62	20.06	20.68	Hotel for Dogs
5%	95%	0.90	17.19	18.09	Marley & Me
25%	75%	3.57	10.70	14.26	Twilight
4%	96%	0.56	13.33	13.89	Mamma Mia!
4%	96%	0.51	12.24	12.75	Seven Pounds
9%	91%	1.10	11.15	12.25	Slumdog Millionaire
6%	94%	0.50	7.76	8.26	The Reader
10%	90%	0.74	6.62	7.36	Bedtime Stories
11%	89%	0.79	6.42	7.21	Notorious
26%	74%	1.81	5.14	6.95	Quantum of Solace
10%	90%	0.69	6.20	6.89	Bolt
16%	84%	1.04	5.43	6.47	The Wrestler
0	100%	0.00	6.44	6.44	Fireproof
9%	91%	0.56	5.65	6.21	Australia
21%	79%	1.25	4.68	5.93	The Day the Earth Stood Still
1%	99%	0.06	5.59	5.65	Sex and the City: The Movie
0	100%	0.00	5.61	5.61	Boston*Legal: Season Five
		31.22	284.92	316.14	
					
		0.0987

[Kosty]

5/03/09 I get 8.46 HMM published 10% (1% low) .04% off pretty close rounds to 8.5% rounds to 9%

BD%	DVD%	BD#	DVD#	Index	
5%	95%	5.00	95.00	100	Bride Wars
3%	97%	2.42	78.32	80.74	Hotel for Dogs
8%	92%	1.87	21.46	23.33	Marley & Me
11%	89%	2.37	19.21	21.58	Notorious
10%	90%	1.92	17.24	19.16	The Uninvited
12%	88%	2.24	16.40	18.64	Twilight
16%	84%	2.79	14.64	17.43	The Wrestler
13%	87%	2.12	14.15	16.27	Slumdog Millionaire
24%	76%	3.81	12.08	15.89	Quantum of Solace
10%	90%	1.50	13.49	14.99	Bedtime Stories
20%	80%	2.82	11.27	14.09	The Day the Earth Stood Still
0	100%	0.00	13.90	13.9	X-Men: Volume 1
0	100%	0.00	12.76	12.76	X-Men: Volume 2
11%	89%	1.27	10.26	11.53	Bolt
19%	81%	1.81	7.74	9.55	The Reader
10%	90%	0.92	8.27	9.19	Yes Man
6%	94%	0.45	7.07	7.52	The Tale of Despereaux
17%	83%	1.27	6.19	7.46	The Spirit
13%	87%	0.96	6.40	7.36	Australia
10%	90%	0.74	6.62	7.35	Seven Pounds
		36.26	392.48	428.74	
					
		0.0846

[cakefoo]

I meant the way you were using the Blu-ray top 20 to find the bumped Blu-ray titles.

I take all 20 Blu-ray titles directly from the Blu-ray Top 20, and multiply them by the BD/(BD+DVD) share of the #1 Blu-ray, which was 20% this week and last, to convert the Blu-ray Top 20 indexes so that they're proportional to the All Formats indexes.

[Kosty]

4/26/09 I got 11.71% HMM got 14%. (2% low)

BD%	DVD%	BD#	DVD#	Index	
12%	88%	12.00	88.00	100	Notorious
19%	81%	15.41	65.68	81.09	The Wrestler
9%	91%	3.62	36.59	40.21	Twilight
7%	93%	2.56	33.95	36.51	Marley & Me
19%	81%	6.11	26.04	32.15	The Day the Earth Stood Still
12%	88%	3.78	27.71	31.49	Frost-Nixon
10%	90%	2.90	26.09	28.99	Bedtime Stories
23%	77%	6.53	21.85	28.38	Quantum of Solace
13%	87%	3.55	23.72	27.27	Slumdog Millionaire
0	100%	0.00	25.16	25.16	Caprica
19%	81%	4.33	18.47	22.8	The Spirit
11%	89%	2.11	17.09	19.2	Bolt
11%	89%	2.11	17.07	19.18	Yes Man
0%	100%	0.00	17.38	17.38	The Reader
6%	94%	0.85	13.26	14.11	The Tale of Despereaux
0	100%	0.00	12.90	12.9	Stuart Little
8%	92%	0.99	11.38	12.37	Doubt
10%	90%	1.19	10.70	11.89	Seven Pounds
0	100%	0.00	10.22	10.22	The Adventures of Elmo in Grouchland
0	100%	0.00	9.78	9.78	Tom and Jerry's Greatest Chases
		68.02	513.06	581.08	
					
		0.1171