2009 Blu-ray Sales Metrics Stats: Nielsen/Videoscan/HMM Charts/Ratios/Bestsellers Etc

[Kosty]

For what it's worth though, the adjustments had little impact. I got 15.18% Blu-ray using this method, and 15.30% Blu-ray making no adjustments.

Well they got 14%

Maybe we should not round? I got 13.8025% by using the flawed method of just using the Blu-ray index from the top 20 chart. Go figure.

At any rate, your method gives a rough calculation within a percentage point or two. I can't see a flaw in your method, but its seems to be off a little. I dunno.

[cakefoo]

I'm going to stand by my calculation method. I see absolutely no flaws in it now. It's kind of unfair because you're doing All Formats Top 20 titles as if they were the Top 20 Blu-ray and you're cutting Blu-ray short because several of those didn't even place on the actual Blu-ray Top 20, and yet you're getting the closer results

I think HMM are outsourcing their pie chart to an 8th grader or something...

edit: I'll try not rounding.

[Kosty]

I'm going to stand by my calculation method. I see absolutely no flaws in it now. It's kind of unfair because you're doing All Formats Top 20 titles as if they were the Top 20 Blu-ray and you're cutting Blu-ray short because several of those didn't even place on the actual Blu-ray Top 20, and yet you're getting the closer results

I think HMM are outsourcing their pie chart to an 8th grader or something...

edit: I'll try not rounding.

I know my method is flawed and it gave a poor result last week if I recall correctly.

I see no flaws in your logic.

But I know who is doing the HMM calculations, and they are not chimps. I was assured that last week (5/17/09) top 20 unit pie chart was correct.

(However, I do suspect that the intern that posted the pie chart preview up last week and could not add is delivering coffee this week though. )

Anyway, if we keep track of whatever method we finally end up with and how it compares with the published result back in history and over time, we can get a good idea of what the number will be anyway.

What did your revised method do with last weeks numbers? (week 5/17/09)

[cakefoo]

Not rounding, I get 15.23% and 15.33% for adjusting and not adjusting for bumped DVD's, respectively.

How about this? Let's say the 20% Blu-ray share of Valkyrie was rounded up from the lowest possible, 19.5% by Nielsen. I still get 15.01% and 14.91%.

*shrugs

Guess I'll never win, pa!

[cakefoo]

Anyway, if we keep track of whatever method we finally end up with and how it compares with the published result back in history and over time, we can get a good idea of what the number will be anyway.

What did your revised method do with last weeks numbers? (week 5/17/09)

Yeah, that's all that matters. At this point I'm more or less trying to find if there's any flaw in my own calculation so that we can have the peace of mind of knowing that we're getting there the right way. But for now, your method is what, 2/2 or 3/3, right? Or have you been doing this for a while now.

My calculation of last week's numbers adjusted for possibly bumped DVD's...

I re-did them, not rounding like I did originally last week, and got 17.88% without the bumped DVD adjustment and 17.74% with.

[Kosty]

I was a percentage point or so high last week. I got 16% and change and the published number was 15% for week ending 5/17/09. Both of us getting a general idea + - 1% or so isn't bad, but I would like to crack the code.

I've asked, we just are not going to get the actual top 20 DVD index numbers as HMM is specifically not doing that calculation and is not going to publish it, and by the time we can do it ourself based on the the-numbers data, we already have the pie chart.

[Kosty]

This data has been updated. Please go to the end pages of this thread for the latest versions.

[Kosty]

This data has been updated. Please go to the end pages of this thread for the latest versions.

[Kosty]

This data has been updated. Please go to the end pages of this thread for the latest versions.

[Kosty]

Revenue charts and graphs update for the week ending 5/25/09 is now complete.

Week ending 5/24/09



10.49% Blu-ray revenue share

14% top 20 unit Blu-ray market share

$20.92 Blu-ray revenues, 4th best of the year. $178.53 DVD revenues

Blu-ray revenues have now been up year to year for all consecutive 21 weeks of 2009 over 2008.

Blu-ray and DVD combined packaged home media revenues were down this week compared to last year.

        Year to year change from 2008 to 2009 
2009
05/24/09  (BD+119.47% -13.10% DVD TL -07.23% YTY)
05/17/09  (BD+285.12% +07.71% DVD TL +17.15% YTY)
05/10/09  (BD+226.95% -03.90% DVD TL +02.69% YTY)
05/03/09  (BD+176.73% -05.24% DVD TL +00.66% YTY)
04/26/09  (BD +43.76% -21.75% DVD TL -17.82% YTY)
04/19/09  (BD +15.31% -31.37% DVD TL -28.57% YTY)
04/12/09  (BD+172.86% +27.63% DVD TL +33.44% YTY)
04/05/09  (BD+130.70% +01.73% DVD TL +06.89% YTY)     
03/29/09  (BD+164.64% +87.76% DVD TL +93.91% YTY)
03/22/09  (BD +05.89% -02.08% DVD TL -01.37% YTY)
03/15/09  (BD +51.53% -10.87% DVD TL -07.13% YTY)
03/08/09  (BD +69.04% -17.54% DVD TL -14.08% YTY)
03/01/09  (BD +46.36% -10.16% DVD TL  -7.33% YTY)  
02/22/09  (BD +29.31% -11.94% DVD TL  -9.47% YTY)
02/15/09  (BD +33.27% -00.25% DVD TL  +1.42% YTY)
02/08/09  (BD +61.03% -13.32% DVD TL -10.33% YTY)
02/01/09  (BD +68.41% -24.30% DVD TL -20.96% YTY)
01/25/09  (BD+165.35% -26.80% DVD TL -21.32% YTY)
01/18/09  (BD +62.99% -27.01% DVD TL -23.91% YTY)
01/11/09  (BD+207.95% -12.32% DVD TL - 4.75% YTY)
01/04/09  (BD+231.89% -12.88% DVD TL - 4.46% YTY)

[neone]

Not rounding, I get 15.23% and 15.33% for adjusting and not adjusting for bumped DVD's, respectively.

How about this? Let's say the 20% Blu-ray share of Valkyrie was rounded up from the lowest possible, 19.5% by Nielsen. I still get 15.01% and 14.91%.

*shrugs

Guess I'll never win, pa!

There's 3 possible meanings to the top 20 ratio.

#1 (possible?) vol(top-20-BD)/[vol(top20-BD)+vol(top20-DVD)].

#2 (maybe?) vol(top-20-BD)/[vol(top20 BD and the DVD release].

#3 (likely?). Take the top20 DVD chart. then vol(BD of top20DVD) /(vol (DVD+BD on top 20DVD)).

#3 would give the lowest number, #2 would give the highest.

[cakefoo]

#3 sounds like what Kosty does, which, if I'm not mistaken, is...

(BD share of Top 20 BD&DVD) : (DVD share of Top 20 BD&DVD)

P.S. I'm pretty sure (Kosty, confirm!) that the Top 20 chart is taking into account Blu-ray+DVD combined. The-Numbers.com, however, I do believe, are doing DVD-only (Kosty, confirm!)

[Kosty]

P.S. I'm pretty sure (Kosty, confirm!) that the Top 20 chart is taking into account Blu-ray+DVD combined.

The Top 20 Titles chart is the 20 bestselling titles of the week with all combined DVD + Blu-ray SKUs that are available. Its all versions and formats of the bestselling 20 titles.

#1 (possible?) vol(top-20-BD)/[vol(top20-BD)+vol(top20-DVD)].

Thats it.

#3 (likely?). Take the top20 DVD chart. then vol(BD of top20DVD) /(vol (DVD+BD on top 20DVD)).

#3 sounds like what Kosty does, which, if I'm not mistaken, is...

(BD share of Top 20 BD&DVD) : (DVD share of Top 20 BD&DVD)

Thats not it. I asked. Thats my calculation and its not correct. See email exchange below. I also confirmed by voice conversation.

Take the top20 DVD chart

.

Thats the problem, we don't have a top 20 DVD chart. Only a top 20 title chart which is combing DVD +Blu-ray sales together. It misses some DVD top 20 units that get bumped off.

The-Numbers.com, however, I do believe, are doing DVD-only (Kosty, confirm!)

the-numbers.com is DVD top 30 only. I count only their top 20 titles. They estimate for Wal-Mart DVD sales, but do not include Blu-ray. They are thinking about what to do for Blu-ray, but as of now its DVD only.

According to my conversations with HMM, the top 20 unit pie chart uses as 100% a total universe of the total units of the 20 best selling DVD titles and the total 20 best selling Blu-ray titles. They look at the Nielsen Videoscan first alert report by SKU and filter put the Blu-ray SKUs and then they total up the total units of the 20 best selling DVD titles. Thats the top 20 DVD units.

Then they filter the first alert report by Blu-ray SKUs. They then look at the 20 best selling Blu-ray titles for the week. They add up the top 20 bestselling Blu-ray titles for that week and get a total. Thats the top 20 Blu-ray units.

They add up the two total to get the basis for 100% of the pie chart, its top 20 DVD units + top 20 Blu-ray units.

So the Blu-ray percentage for the week is (top 20 bestselling Blu-ray titles units sold) / [(top 20 bestselling Blu-ray titles units sold) + (top 20 bestselling DVD titles units sold)].

I've checked with them last week and they said, that we are just missing the data for the top DVD titles so we can't do the calculation, and its NDA for them to give us a heads up or obviously the actual numbers.

I have at times seen actual first alert reports last year and the pie chart calculation matches what I described when you see all the DVD data.

Saying that, its possible they may change the calculation someday to be the top 20 title chart, but thats my flawed calculation now and we know that doe not match. In fact I specifically asked that and was told that it would not work

...BTW, is this how you calculate out the pie chart top 20 Blu-ray percentage? Is it 8.458% this week? = 8....


...If I multiply out the BD share of each top 20 title X the titles index number and then divide that by all the totals of the index numbers, that should give me the Blu-ray share of that top 20 list....

...Just looking again, that calculation below should not work out to give the pie chart number as its not using the totals of the top 20 DVD + the top 20 BDs. Its missing some of the top 20 Blu-ray units if they are not on the combined bestseller list.

Well that list is not only the top DVD titles but it is also the bestselling combined DVD + Blu-ray titles.

That calculation should not be correct as it would only work if the top 20 DVDs and Blu-ray's were the same.

I was reaching there,

Unless they changed it the calculation is (the total number of the top 20 bestselling Blu-ray titles) divided by (the total number of DVD units sold of the top 20 DVD titles) + (the total number of the top 20 bestselling Blu-ray titles) expressed as a percentage.

You’re right. That calculation doesn't work. The Blu-ray share for this week is 10% according to our methodology, which compares the total units of the top 20 selling Blu-ray discs to the top 20 selling DVD titles for that week.

I know what you’re trying to do, but I’m sorry to say, I don’t think you should be able to sneak through the back door on this one . You’re lacking the crucial information, the actual DVD and Blu-ray unit numbers, which you can only guess at, and which {edit} ... we cannot provide... {edit}...

I've had extended phone conversations that also confirm their methodology.

Saying that, I'm not sure why your calculations are not closer. I can only assume because its the scale of DVD sales still to Blu-ray and maybe rounding errors.

[Kosty]

P.S. I'm pretty sure (Kosty, confirm!) that the Top 20 chart is taking into account Blu-ray+DVD combined. The-Numbers.com, however, I do believe, are doing DVD-only (Kosty, confirm!)

This chart, which is called Top 20 Sellers in the published magazine is not just DVD titles, its the 20 best selling titles of the week for all versions of DVD and Blu-ray that the title is available on. (I think they called it Top 20 Titles earlier)



http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ques...r2#/32/OnePage

[Kosty]

I think I see our flaw.

The top 20 index number is the combined number for both DVD + Blu-ray sales. My calculation misses some of th Blu-ray top 20 units and some of the displaced DVD units but it does take into account what the proper Blu-ray share for those titles on that chart.

Your calculation takes into account the missing Blu-ray units as we have the Blu-ray top 20 chart.

But your new revised calculation for the missing DVD units, I sense is not taking into account that the calculation of the Index number is DVD+BD so the DVD % is understated. Its like when I get the top 20 units from the-numbers.com. I have to divide by the DVD % to get the actual total DVD+BD units so I can multiply out by the BD% to get the BD units.

I figured out what I believe to be the absolute most accurate possible way to pull out the data from the numbers we have. Since my calculation leaned Blu-ray compared to Nielsen's last week, and in an attempt to rule out what I believe to be the last possible explanation for the conflicting final figures, I figured out a way to be completely fair to DVD in the event that titles are getting bumped slightly off the chart, causing me to underestimate its share.

The best-case scenario is that an extended AF Top 40 version of this week's list would look like this:


The maximum index a bumped off DVD title could have is what the #20 title has: 4.73. We can know that even if the bumped titles had a 100% DVD share, they would at best TIE for 20th.

Here's a section of my share calculating spreadsheet:


(As you see, I've rounded all my indexes, so the 4.73 is now 5)

Any titles that come out to a DVD Index of less than 5 can be replaced with a hypothetical DVD-only release whose index is 4.73, (rounded to 5). So that would mean titles #17 (originally 2.04) and #19 (originally 4.4).

This method in no way undersells DVD, to my knowledge. In fact, it favors it because it assumes a best possible scenario with each questionable title.

For what it's worth though, the adjustments had little impact. I got 15.18% Blu-ray using this method, and 15.30% Blu-ray making no adjustments.

I think I see our flaw.

The top 20 index number is the combined number for both DVD + Blu-ray sales. My calculation misses some of th Blu-ray top 20 units and some of the displaced DVD units but it does take into account what the proper Blu-ray share for those titles on that chart.

Your calculation takes into account the missing Blu-ray units as we have the Blu-ray top 20 chart.

But your new revised calculation for the missing DVD units, I sense is not taking into account that the calculation of the Index number is DVD+BD so the DVD % is understated. Its like when I get the top 20 units from the-numbers.com. I have to divide by the DVD % to get the actual total DVD+BD units so I can multiply out by the BD% to get the BD units.