2009 Blu-ray Sales Metrics Stats: Nielsen/Videoscan/HMM Charts/Ratios/Bestsellers Etc

[MarekM]

sorry for OFFtopic question...


Kosty, Grubert or anybody who remembers or know a link to this data :

how big is current number, % of marketshare DVD sales for WallMart ?

thanx for answare,

Marek

[Kosty]

sorry for OFFtopic question...


Kosty, Grubert or anybody who remembers or know a link to this data :

how big is current number, % of marketshare DVD sales for WallMart ?

thanx for answare,

Marek

Wal-Mart is consistently 40% of DVD marketshare of the US market for DVD revenues, top 20 unit sales and overall unit sales for DVD. Since 2004 at least, but I think it was even earlier than that. DEG folks , The Redhill Group, studios generally and HMM all use that benchmark. Often when studios give out DVD sales figures you could back calculate from the Nielsen Videoscan DVD figures 9or the-numbers public data) to see that an even 40% is used.

From some very accurate reports I have seen, 40% is quite consistent and a pretty accurate unit and revenue number, its a nice coincidence that a nice even 40% has been pretty consistent over time as well.

Multiple sources have used that benchmark. Just google it.

In 2006 and 2007 Wal-Mart system sales (Wal-Marts, Wal-Mart SuperCenters and Sam's Clubs) had low , probably 5% to 10% HD DVD or Blu-ray market share. Wal-Mart's Blu-ray market share probably grew steadily in 2008 and probably reached 20-25% market share behind best Buy and Amazon sometime in 4Q 2008 where it probably is now.

Last estimates show pretty strong growth in Wal-Marts share over time now and its reasonable to assume that as Blu-ray gains more household penetration its Blu-ray share of the market will close in and trend to its DVD share.

[MarekM]

Kosty,

thanx for fast answare !
I have some chat on boxofficemojo, about TOP 100 DVDsales ALLTIME,
and I am not sure if data from NIELSEN are covering Wal-Mart or not....
or they are taking them into account with estimates hmm

Marek

Wal-Mart is consistently 40% of DVD marketshare of the US market for DVD revenues, top 20 unit sales and overall unit sales for DVD. Since 2004 at least, but I think it was even earlier than that. DEG folks , The Redhill Group, studios generally and HMM all use that benchmark. Often when studios give out DVD sales figures you could back calculate from the Nielsen Videoscan DVD figures 9or the-numbers public data) to see that an even 40% is used.

From some very accurate reports I have seen, 40% is quite consistent and a pretty accurate unit and revenue number, its a nice coincidence that a nice even 40% has been pretty consistent over time as well.

Multiple sources have used that benchmark. Just google it.

In 2006 and 2007 Wal-Mart system sales (Wal-Marts, Wal-Mart SuperCenters and Sam's Clubs) had low , probably 5% to 10% HD DVD or Blu-ray market share. Wal-Mart's Blu-ray market share probably grew steadily in 2008 and probably reached 20-25% market share behind best Buy and Amazon sometime in 4Q 2008 where it probably is now.

Last estimates show pretty strong growth in Wal-Marts share over time now and its reasonable to assume that as Blu-ray gains more household penetration its Blu-ray share of the market will close in and trend to its DVD share.

[Kosty]

http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/...dtv_052109.pdf

Best Buy, Amazon maintain large Blu-ray market share
PHYSICAL: As format grows, Wal-Mart might dominate
By Susanne Ault -- Video Business, 5/8/2009

MAY 8 | PHYSICAL: Almost three years after the introduction of Blu-ray Disc, retailers Best Buy and Amazon continue to account for a much larger share of sales of the new format than they do for standard DVD. But Wal-Mart is poised to expand its market share quickly as Blu-ray’s consumer base broadens, according to analysts.

Best Buy is the dominant retailer of Blu-ray by a large margin, claiming a market share of 40% to 50%—even larger than the share Wal-Mart holds in standard DVD, according to research sources. Wal-Mart is the runner-up with 20% to 30% market share. Amazon.com clocks in at 15% to 20%, and Target rounds out the leading Blu-ray retailers with about a 10% share.

The retail rankings are turned around when analyzing the overall DVD market, with Wal-Mart maintaining its long-time dominance with a 40% share. Second place is a virtual tie, note sources, with Target and Best Buy hitting 12% and 11%, respectively. Amazon trails at around 6% to 7%.

Best Buy has topped the retail field in Blu-ray since around the time the format launched. Research analysts believe that Best Buy’s ongoing Blu-ray strength makes sense considering its core electronics customer base matches perfectly with early adopters. Best Buy has merchandised to that fact, placing Blu-ray titles in heavily trafficked areas.

The chain also heavily emphasizes Blu-ray titles in advertising. In its April 28 newspaper insert, for instance, Best Buy featured the Blu-ray versions of the week’s major releases—Paramount Home Entertainment’s Hotel for Dogs and The Uninvited and 20th Century Fox Home Entertainment’s Bride Wars—with pictures much larger than those for the titles’ standard DVD versions. A week earlier, Universal Studios Home Entertainment’s April 21 release Frost/Nixon was shown only in Blu-ray form, with small writing underneath the image stating that the title is also available on standard DVD.

“Best Buy supports the format more aggressively than Wal-Mart and Target,” said one retail analyst. “Best Buy has been aggressive with its first-week pricing for new release titles and offering catalog promotions. And its placement of Blu-ray titles is typically at the front of the store, compared with the back of the store at some Target and Wal-Mart locations.”

Similarly, Amazon has lavished Blu-ray with a lot of merchandising and promotion attention, helping the online retailer grab a much larger share in the format than it has on DVD.

However, research analysts predict Blu-ray retail shares will begin mimicking standard DVD shares in the near future, as the high-definition format becomes more mainstream. U.S. Blu-ray player sales will generate $765 million in 2009, tripling 2008 revenue, according to firm SNL Kagan.

“Wal-Mart goes after the mainstream, female consumer,” said another retail analyst. “And as Blu-ray becomes more mainstream, you can certainly envision a time where Blu-ray’s market shares look not too different from DVD market shares.”

[cakefoo]

Hey Kosty, do you backup your files? I use Cobian. It can be automated or set to run manually. I backup text files, my Firefox profile, the Windows Start Menu (to remind me what programs I had), and a few other things I'd hate to lose.

[Kosty]

Kosty,

thanx for fast answare !
I have some chat on boxofficemojo, about TOP 100 DVDsales ALLTIME,
and I am not sure if data from NIELSEN are covering Wal-Mart or not....
or they are taking them into account with estimates hmm

Marek

The-Numbers.com DVD sales estimates for units sold by each title and revenues include and adjustment to account for Wal-Mart. Not sure about how that is handled at boxoffice mojo for any weekly discussion.

In general terms, units sold usually means from the raw Nielsen Videoscan report if talking about a given title, if its from an industry source on Wed, as that s when the Nielsen Videoscan first alert numbers get distributed.

Studios or analysts may plus that up to give Wal-Mart units. The studios know exactly how many Wal-Mart units they sell. No one else exactly does (besides WM). Except that its common to just assume WM has a 40% DVD share and calculate out what the Wal-Mart sales would be.

Pretty much now we can assume WM has a 20-25 Blu-ray share as well. But the weekly HMM revenues for Blu-ray are including that calculation for us, and we never have a real Blu-ray unit number from Nielsen Videoscan to calculate from. Sometimes the studios tell us, usually not.

[MarekM]

The-Numbers.com DVD sales estimates for units sold by each title and revenues include and adjustment to account for Wal-Mart. Not sure about how that is handled at boxoffice mojo for any weekly discussion.

In general terms, units sold usually means from the raw Nielsen Videoscan report if talking about a given title, if its from an industry source on Wed, as that s when the Nielsen Videoscan first alert numbers get distributed.

Studios or analysts may plus that up to give Wal-Mart units. The studios know exactly how many Wal-Mart units they sell. No one else exactly does (besides WM). Except that its common to just assume WM has a 40% DVD share and calculate out what the Wal-Mart sales would be.

Pretty much now we can assume WM has a 20-25 Blu-ray share as well. But the weekly HMM revenues for Blu-ray are including that calculation for us, and we never have a real Blu-ray unit number from Nielsen Videoscan to calculate from. Sometimes the studios tell us, usually not.

thanx Kosty !!

Marek

[Grubert]

Blu-ray share per title and week:

Action/horror/thriller

Date    Title                     Genre       W1  W2  W3  W4  W5  W6  W7  W8
051209  Taken                     Action      20
        Underworld Rise of Lycans Horror      16
        S. Darko                  Horror      12
042809  The Uninvited             Horror      10   9   9
041409  The Spirit                Action      24  19  17  17   -
040709  Day the Earth Stood Still Sci-Fi      21  20  19  20  21  21
032409  Quantum of Solace         Action      28  27  24  22  23  24  26  25
031709  Punisher: War Zone        Action      19  16  15  46   -   -   -   -
031009  Let the Right One In      Horror      22   -   -   -   -   -   -   -
        Transporter 3             Action      19  15  16  17  43  23   -   -
021709  Body of Lies              Thriller    21  18  21  20  21  23   -  60
        Midnight Meat Train       Horror      16   -  -    -   -   -   -   -
        Quarantine                Horror      16  13  12  12   -   -   -   -
012709  Lakeview Terrace          Thriller     9   9   5  16   -   -   -   -
        RockNRolla                Action      23  22   -   -   -   -   -   -
012009  Max Payne                 Action      21  18  12  16  14  16  22   -
        Saw V                     Horror      11   9   7   -   -   -   -   -
011309  Mirrors                   Horror      13  12  16   -   -   -   -   -
010609  Babylon A.D.              Action       -  18  21  24  18   -   -   -
        Bangkok Dangerous         Thriller     -  17  16   -  14   -   -   -
        Righteous Kill            Thriller     -  14  17  19  16   -   -   -
122708  Eagle Eye                 Thriller     -   -   -  21  24  48  25  21
122108  Death Race                Action       -   -   -  22  21  27   -   -
121608  The Mummy: Tomb...        Action       -   -   -   -  18  22  21  18
120908  The Dark Knight           Action       -   -   -   -   -  31  30  28
120208  Wanted                    Action       -   -   -   -   -   -  25  28

Comedy/animation/musical/other

Date    Title                     Genre       W1  W2  W3  W4  W5  W6  W7  W8
051209  Cavalcade Cartoon Comedy  Animation   14
050509  Curious Case of B. Button Drama       14  14
        Last Chance Harvey        Drama        4   4
042809  Bride Wars                Comedy       5   6   6
        Hotel for Dogs            Comedy       3   3   3
        The Reader [1]            Drama       19   6   -
042109  Frost/Nixon               Drama       12  11  10   -
        Notorious                 Drama       12  11  11  11
        The Wrestler              Drama       19  16  16  17
040709  Doubt                     Drama        9   8   8   8   9   -
        Not Easily Broken         Drama        -   3   -   -   -   -
        Tale of Despereaux        Animation    4   6   6   6   8   -
        Yes Man                   Comedy      10  10  11  10  10  11
033109  Bedtime Stories           Comedy      13   8  10  10  10  10  10
        Marley & Me               Comedy       7   6   7   7   8   5  10
        Seven Pounds              Drama        9   8   9  10  10   4  16
        Slumdog Millionaire       Drama       13  11  13  13  13   9  14
032409  Tales Black Freighter     Animation   23   -   -   -   -   -   -   -
032209  Bolt                      Animation   20  13   7   2  10  11  11  10
032109  Twilight                  Fantasy      7   8   8   9   9   -  12  25
031009  Cadillac Records          Drama        6   6   -   -   -   -   -   -
        Milk                      Drama       10  10   9   7   -   -   -   -
        Rachel Getting Married    Drama        5   5   -   -   -   -   -   -
        Role Models               Comedy      12  11  12  11  10  10  11  13
        South Park 12th Season    Animation    8   7   -   -   -   -   -   -
030309  Australia                 Drama       12  13  12  14  11  14  12  15
        Beverly Hills Chihuahua   Comedy       3   3   3   -   3   1   6   6
        Watchmen Motion Comic     Animation   29   -   -  23   -   -   -   -
        Wonder Woman              Animation   14  13   -   -   -   -   -   -
022409  Futurama Into the Wild... Animation   10   9   -   -   -   -   -   -
        Sex Drive                 Comedy      13  10  12   -   -   -   -   -
021709  Changeling                Drama        8   8   9   9   9   -   -   -
        High School Musical 3     Musical      5   6   4   3   3   3   3   1
021009  Miracle at St. Anna       Drama       18  17  19  18  12   -   -   -
        Nights in Rodanthe        Romance      8   6   7   7   -   -   -   -
        Soul Men                  Comedy       4   -   -   -   -   -   -   -
        W.                        Drama        9   8   -   -   -   -   -   -
020309  Afro Samurai Resurrection Animation   19   -   -   -   -   -   -   -
        Madagascar Escape 2       Animation    9   8   6  13  12  10  12   4
        Nick and Norah's...       Comedy       8   8   -   -   -   -   -   -
        Rent: Filmed Live...      Musical     15   -   -   -   -   -   -   -
        The Secret Life of Bees   Drama        3   4   4   -   -   -   -   -
        Space Buddies             Family       3   3   2   -   3   -   -   -
        Zack and Miri Make...     Comedy      11  10  12  15  15  16  17  17
012709  Hulk Vs.                  Animation   16  13  13   -   -   -   -   -
        Open Season 2             Animation    3   4   4   -   -   -   -   -
        Pride and Glory           Drama       17  14  16  16   -   -   -   -
        Vicky Cristina Barcelona  Comedy       7   -  15   -   -   -   -   -
012009  Igor                      Animation    6   8   -   -   -   -   -   -
        The Express               Drama       10   -   -   -   -   -   -   -
011309  Appaloosa                 Western     12  14  13  13  17   -   -   -
        My Best Friend's Girl     Comedy       8   8   -   -   -   -   -   -
        Swing Vote                Comedy       6   -   -   -   -   -   -   -
010609  Pineapple Express         Comedy       -   -  12  12  13  13  15  12
122308  Burn After Reading        Comedy       -   -   -  12   -   -   -   -
121608  Mamma Mia!                Musical      -   -   -   -   9  11  11   9
120908  Horton Hears a Who!       Animated     -   -   -   -   -   8  11   -
120208  Step Brothers             Comedy       -   -   -   -   -   -  12  16

[1] The Reader was released on DVD on April 14 and on BD on April 28.

[Kosty]

Home Media Magazine latest issue is now up.

They corrected their arithmetic error on the total packaged media number and percentage.

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom774152VJK/index.php?startid=Cover2

[Kosty]

Hey Kosty, do you backup your files? I use Cobian. It can be automated or set to run manually. I backup text files, my Firefox profile, the Windows Start Menu (to remind me what programs I had), and a few other things I'd hate to lose.

I have some things in place for local backup and online for selected data files.

Always looking though for good ideas, I'll check it out.

I'm pretty pleased right now with tinypic for image hosting. Looking for a best site to host the powerpoint charts for everyones use that I can use easily.

[Kosty]

Wow.

Quantum of Solace, Eagle Eye, Transporter 3, Body of Lies and a lot of others are starting to stack up some serious Blu-ray market share numbers as the weeks roll on.

Retailers and studios have to notice that. Wal-Mart is usually the first to spot trends like that and react with their logistics system and I've noticed that my local WM stores have increased their initial counts of new Blu-ray releases and are getting more copies in of re ordered titles.


As those recent titles start getting closer and closer to 30-50% marketshare and age into last quarters and last years releases, those are the things that affect retailer inventory decisions.

It makes it much more likely that more Blu-ray titles get stocked at retailers and that in time catalog Blu-ray titles will replace their DVD versions on the shelves.

[Kosty]

The total box office strength of the releases for DVD for the week ending 5/31/09 will be way down, so the top 20 sales for DVD (and Blu-ray?) will be well down for that week.

The releases must be very light that week for DVD.

Upcoming weeks 2009 Total Box Office Power (TBO) and percentage change from the TBO of the matching week in 2008 $M 

5/31/09  TBO   $16.73   - 60.86% (for 2009 New Release Total Box Office Power for new DVD releases)
5/24/09  TBO  $280.41   + 23.90% (for 2009 New Release Total Box Office Power for new DVD releases)

Date             DVD  Blu-ray  DVD+BD  BD/(DVD+BD) BD/DVD*100  BD% of
Week Ending   revenue revenue  revenue  revenue    rev index   top 20 units   YTY Change

05/17/09	187.96	23.69	211.65	11.19%	12.60	15% (BD+285.12% +07.71% DVD TL +17.15% YTY)
05/18/08	174.51	 6.15	180.66	 3.40%	 3.52	 5% TBO $189.49 +138.12% (for 2009 New Release Total Box Office Power for new DVD releases)

05/10/09	165.23	16.52	181.75	 9.09%	10.00	10% (BD+226.95% -03.90% DVD TL +02.69% YTY)
05/11/08	171.94	 5.05	177.00	 2.86%	 2.94	 5% TBO $142.40 +28.03% (for 2009 New Release Total Box Office Power for new DVD releases)

05/03/09	154.42	15.09	169.51	 8.90%	 9.77	10% (BD+176.73% -05.24% DVD TL +00.66% YTY)
05/04/08	162.95	 5.45	168.40	 3.24%	 3.35	 5% TBO $159.66 +00.15% (for 2009 New Release Total Box Office Power for new DVD releases)

04/26/09	165.58	19.42	184.99	10.50%	11.73	14% (BD +43.76% -21.75% DVD TL -17.82% YTY)
04/27/08	211.60	13.51	225.11	 7.93%	 6.38	 6% TBO $81.61  -56.44% (for 2009 New Release Total Box Office Power for new DVD releases)

04/19/09	135.79	10.79	146.58	 7.36%	 7.94	12% (BD +15.31% -31.37% DVD TL -28.57% YTY)
04/20/08	202.24	 7.20	209.45	 3.44%	 3.56	 6% TBO $53.66  -73.39% (for 2009 New Release Total Box Office Power for new DVD releases)

04/12/09	296.43	19.56	315.99	 6.19%	 6.60	 7% (BD+172.86% +27.63% DVD TL +33.44% YTY)
04/13/08	237.42	 5.52	242.94	 2.27%	 2.32	 5% TBO $271.84 +124.49% (for 2009 New Release Total Box Office Power for new DVD releases) 

04/05/09	246.24	17.24	263.47	 6.54%	 7.00	10% (BD+130.70% +01.73% DVD TL +06.89% YTY)  (2Q 2009)   
04/06/08	247.44	 5.75	253.19	 2.27%	 2.32	 4% TBO $357.74 +32.79% (for 2009 New Release Total Box Office Power for new DVD releases)
 
03/29/09	264.73	24.03	288.76	 8.32%	 9.08	13% (BD+164.64% +87.76% DVD TL +93.91% YTY)
03/30/08	144.13	 6.99	151.12	 4.63%	 4.85	 8% TBO 168.37 +306.91%  (for 2009 New Release Total Box Office Power for new DVD releases) 
  
03/22/09	237.16	18.79	255.95	 7.34%	 7.92	 9% (BD +05.89% -02.08% DVD TL -01.37% YTY)
03/23/08	247.59	13.66	261.25	 5.23%	 5.52	 6% TBO 316.44 - 29.41% (for 2009 Release Total Box Office Power for new DVD releases) 

03/15/09	208.32	16.75	225.06	 7.44%	 8.04	12% (BD +51.53% -10.87% DVD TL -07.13% YTY)
03/16/08	238.92	 8.51	247.42	 3.44%	 3.56	 4% TBO 174.71   49.35% (for 2009 New Release Total Box Office Power for new DVD releases) 

03/08/09	167.71	10.61	178.32	 5.95%	 6.33	10% (BD +69.04% -17.54% DVD TL -14.08% YTY)
03/09/08	207.91	 4.83	212.74	 2.27%	 2.32	 4% TBO 146.86 1118.69% (for 2009 Release Total Box Office Power for new DVD releases) 

03/01/09	186.58	11.85	198.43	 5.97%	 6.35	 8% (BD +46.36% -10.16% DVD TL  -7.33% YTY)  
03/02/08	212.30	 6.23	218.53	 2.85%	 2.94 	 4% TBO  [COLOR="rgb(255, 0, 255)"]23.05  -83.72% [/COLOR](for 2009 Release Total Box Office Power for new DVD releases) 

02/22/09	191.22	13.28	204.50	 6.49%	 6.94	10% (BD +29.31% -11.94% DVD TL  -9.47% YTY)
02/24/08	221.98	 7.91	229.89	 3.44%	 3.56	 4% TBO 220.54  +14.84% (for 2009 Release Total Box Office Power for new DVD releases)

02/15/09	207.02	10.78	217.80	 4.95%	 5.21	 8% (BD +33.27% -00.25% DVD TL  +1.42% YTY)
02/17/08	212.15	 6.23	218.38	 2.85%	 2.94	 4% TBO  90.74  -47.72% (for 2009 Release Total Box Office Power for new DVD releases) 

02/08/09	191.84	11.00	202.84	 5.42%	 5.73	 7% (BD +61.03% -13.32% DVD TL -10.33% YTY)
02/10/08	226.24	 5.26	231.50	 2.27%	 2.32	 4% TBO 298.34  +230.18% (for 2009 Release Total Box Office Power for new DVD releases)

02/01/09	155.74	10.27	166.01	 6.18%	 6.59	14% (BD +68.41% -24.30% DVD TL -20.96% YTY)
02/03/08	210.57	 4.90	215.46	 2.27%	 2.32	 4% TBO 1,994.81 +14.19% (for 2009 Release Total Box Office Power for new DVD releases) 

01/25/09	147.10	15.66	162.76	 9.62%	10.65	17% (BD+165.35% -26.80% DVD TL -21.32% YTY)
01/27/08	200.95	 5.90	206.85	 2.85%	 2.94	 4%                         

01/18/09	132.80	10.56	143.37	 7.37%	 7.95	12% (BD +62.99% -27.01% DVD TL -23.91% YTY)
01/20/08	181.94	 6.48	188.42	 3.44%	 3.56	 4%                                

01/11/09	149.56	18.71	168.27	11.12%	12.51	13% (BD+207.95% -12.32% DVD TL - 4.75% YTY)
01/13/08	170.58	 6.08	176.66	 3.44%	 3.56	 4%                           

01/04/09	179.32	24.33	203.65	11.95%	13.57	16% (BD+231.89% -12.88% DVD TL - 4.46% YTY)
01/06/08	205.82	 7.33	213.15	 3.44%	 3.56	 4%

[Kosty]

The estimates for top 20 DVD sales for the week ending 5/17/09 just got put up. Blu-ray got a 15% top 20 unit market share for that week.

Quick calculation, puts that at around 981,000 Blu-ray units sold for the 20 bestselling Blu-ray titles. So last week well over 1 million Blu-ray blue colored plastic cases and went home with consumers in the US who spent over $23.69 million for them in that 7 day period.

Well thats a fraction of the DVD sales mountain, which is still even at that rate 6 X bigger, in the scheme of consumer products , and software in general its not a small number. Thats well on a pace to move 50,000,000 units in 2009 with over $1 Billion in sales. At least.

Thats growth that is due to market penetration and not just release volumes.

[Kosty]

This data has been updated. Please go to the end pages of this thread for the latest versions.

[Kosty]

This data has been updated. Please go to the end pages of this thread for the latest versions.