Bluray must act fast to catch HD DVD!

[Amalgamutt]

Nothing wrong with cheering on your team
Saying it's over in the first quarter is something else, entirely.

Neither side has won anything, at this point.

[glocks out]

gaming is still a niche market

A niche market that covers over 40% of the population and the wide majority of TV owning homes.

[glocks out]

The Blu Ray release for the next 3 months is really poor.

No it isn't, it's very strong.

They are suppoused to have Studio support advantage. We do not see it anywhere.

You don't see these Buena Vista and Sony blockbuster titles anywhere?

There is nothing new on the horizon for BR and therefore Blu ray needs to catch up.

Yes there is. Sony BD player releasing at $599. Funai BD player. Lite-On BD player. Movies that were in theaters earlier this year that haven't been released yet (all new releases should be day and date).

[Vriess]

If any of my friends did that I would slap them. They're literally paying $700 to watch one movie in HD.

A lackluster movie at that.

[marzetta7]

Of course we may all argue at what price point that will be (I believe $150-$200 US is the critical but can fully appreciate arguments from others listing slightly higher or lower amounts), but NO sane person would argue that, barring some miraculous change, HD-DVD format HAS and will likely maintain a lower price (by several hundreds of dollars at this point).

I consider myself quite sane and I find it highly unlikely for HD DVD format to "maintain a lower price." How do you come to such a conclusion?

Supposedly HD DVD discs were supposed to be cheaper than their Blu-ray counterparts due to the disc production lines not having to be retooled. Is that the reality today? Not quite.

In terms of players, both Blu-ray and HD DVD have pretty much the same components, with variations coming to light as to how "high-end" one of the players are. So, how do you come to the conclusion that HD DVD will "likely maintain a lower price?" I'm seriously curious. As, from an economics perspective, the economies of scale favor Blu-ray in driving down the cost of their hardware more rapidly. Some good examples of this would be...

http://www.digitimes.com/systems/a20070502PD215.html

The sources explained that global supply of HD DVD and Blu-ray Disc (BD) pick-up heads (PUHs) is still tight because yield rates on blue-laser laser diodes are quite low and the world's major suppliers of such PUHs, including Sony and Matsushita (Panasonic), have assigned their production capacities for own use first. Since PUHs and chipsets together account for 60-70% of the production costs of HD DVD and BD players, the shortage of PUHs renders it almost impossible to minimize the production costs to below US$299 this year, the sources noted

Another interesting note would be concerning blue laser diodes in both of the format's hardware systems...

http://www.hexus.net/content/item.php?item=7490

Right now, Sony and Nichia Corp rule the blue laser diode market.

...and with the addition of Sharp, a staunch Blu-ray proponent, who do you think will receive the bulk of blue diodes?

Honestly, I just don't see how you come to the conclusion that HD DVD will likely stay cheaper given the information above and the fact that the CE manufacturers supporting Blu-ray (Sony, Panasonic, Philips, Sharp, Samsung, LG, etc.) and churning out players will cause the price of Blu-ray hardware down as time progresses.

Care to share how you logically come to this conclusion?

[/LIST]Once players start becoming available at mass-merchandisers (Wal-Marts, Targets etc.) for prices in the range of $125-$200 (depending on your own opinion of where the magic price for adoption lies), then sales of the Hi-Def players (VERY likely HD-DVD) will start to take off with the masses.

• If this was the case, that is, that price, dictated mass adoption, irregardless of brand, quality, marketing, durability, design, etc, then I guess you are right. However, in reality, the masses don't own Coby and other unknown cheap players for obvious reasons. You simply can't underestimate the power in a good name.
  
  

  Once Movie Studios notice masses buying any one particular format, they WILL definitely release their movies in that format. I know all of the fans of both competing formats want to argue here the superiority of certain studios and Blu fans will correctly list the vastly bigger selection for that format at the present time. But again no seriously rational person here is going to disagree that Disney, Fox and Lionsgate (and later but eventually Sony Pictures) will have no choice but to commence releasing their movies in the HD-DVD format if the Masses are buying that format and of course if Blu Ray players (iincluding the gaming console) were the choice of the masses then Universal also would have no choice but to commence releasing in that format.

That's quite a big "IF" statement here. I simply do not see HD DVD being accepted by the masses, that's just it, with only one major hardware supplier in Toshiba. HD DVD will not likely overcome the behemoths of Sony, Panasonic, Philips, Sharp, etc.--along with the majority of Hollywood studios providing content--just on price alone. See where I'm getting at? Price, while important, is not the trump card of all other variables that go into the success of a format. This is a fallacy.

But NONE of this will matter after the Wal-Marts and Targets of the continent start selling low priced players. It certainly seems that this favours HD-DVD over Blu Ray in the long run. Now faced with this, why should I worry about Studio support if I am a Joe-Six-Pack (which by the way I am NOT. Heck I don't even drink beer so that puts me in a definite minority)? No, when players become cheap, a typical J6P will just buy a player off the Wal-Mart/Target/B-Buy shelf for $125 and take it home. Only after that will the concern to buy movies start to matter and as clearly argued above, by that time all the studios (with the possible exception of Sony Pictures) will have either announced support of HD-DVD or have already started releasing in that format.

I think you fail to think this through. If J6P comes home with XYZ cheap HD DVD player, and finds out that he/she can only play less than 50% of movie content out there, he/she will likely be pissed and return it to Wal-mart or Target, costing the company money on returns. Don't think for a second these large chains don't have this in mind either. In regards to speculation in terms of Disney, Fox, Lionsgate, MGM, and Sony Pictures announcing support of HD DVD, I won't even begin, since this conclusion was prefaced with flawed logic to begin with. Needless to say, it isn't happening given the superiority of Blu-ray for 5 months running now.

Anyway there's what I feel is a reasoned argument and I would encourage others to try to step back from their fervoured support of their favoured format and advance sound arguments instead of constantly harping on the same old 'Our players are better' 'Our Studio Support is better', 'BD is blowing away HD in software sales' etc.
DJD

Well, I do have to say that your argument was fairly reasoned, but lacked very important specifics, and shunned the reality of others. All in all, I think your take on the format war here was well intentioned and somewhat thought through, but again, falls short and is very unrealistic given the factors hitherto mentioned.

[WhiteBread]

Alright then.

It is totally laughable that some people in here are suggesting that a bluray player will be able to compete on price with an HD DVD player by the end of the year. NO WAY. The new Samsung that was just released is $999 and the Sony G2 player is going to be $799. I can buy an HD DVD player for $499 or $599. Someone can buy quite a few movies with the spare change!

HD DVD will hold the price advantage card for some time. Once both formats get under $200, then things won't really matter for price too much. HD DVD will get there much sooner than bluray for stand alone players.

What kind of effect will this have on the market? Time will tell. But if Sony and Samsung are coming out swinging with G2 players priced the way they are, what makes anyone think they can catch Toshiba's prices?

So, together now, lets watch the sales of stand alone players and see where the chips fall.

[ckelly79]

Alright then.

It is totally laughable that some people in here are suggesting that a bluray player will be able to compete on price with an HD DVD player by the end of the year. NO WAY. The new Samsung that was just released is $999 and the Sony G2 player is going to be $799. I can buy an HD DVD player for $499 or $599. Someone can buy quite a few movies with the spare change!

HD DVD will hold the price advantage card for some time. Once both formats get under $200, then things won't really matter for price too much. HD DVD will get there much sooner than bluray for stand alone players.

What kind of effect will this have on the market? Time will tell. But if Sony and Samsung are coming out swinging with G2 players priced the way they are, what makes anyone think they can catch Toshiba's prices?

So, together now, lets watch the sales of stand alone players and see where the chips fall.

The new Sammy is $799. And I believe the new Sony is going to be $699. And you can get the gen 1 Sammy for $599 at CC or under $450 online ($350 for refurbs).

Is Toshiba still selling players at a loss? If not, I'm curious as to what makes a Blu-ray player more expensive than an HD DVD player?

[glocks out]

The new Sammy is $799 and the new Sony is $599. Funai said they're expecting their players by Q4 and you don't seriously expect them to come in at the same price as Sony do you?

HD DVD doesn't have an inherent price advantage, they use the same off-the-shelf materials and only slightly different chipsets and laser lenses. Toshiba has been subsidizing their players, so don't expect any other serious companies to join until they can actually make a profit.

[divian]

No it isn't, it's very strong.)

What titles do you see there that are strong besides POTC 1 & 2.
Regarding titles count HD DVD is stronger.

You don't see these Buena Vista and Sony blockbuster titles anywhere?

I bet you you can not see them either. Besides POTC 1 & 2.

Yes there is. Sony BD player releasing at $599. Funai BD player. Lite-On BD player. Movies that were in theaters earlier this year that haven't been released yet (all new releases should be day and date).

Funai and Lite on are just like those chinese Walmart players. Do not count on them until you can see one with your own eyes and you can touch it.

[glocks out]

What titles do you see there that are strong besides POTC 1 & 2.
Regarding titles count HD DVD is stronger.

I'm over the whole posting of lists, it's been done too many times.

I've already posted a list for you in this thread even. Your personal tastes shouldn't be taken into account, only the sales trends for these movies.

I bet you you ca not see them either. Besides POTC 1 & 2

Again, I've posted a list, others have too. Just look at the bloody list.

Funai and Lite on are just like those chinese Walmart players. Do not count on them until you can see one with your own eyes and you can touch it.

Except those companies actually have announced players, and Lite-On even has a model number. Chinese players don't have anything.

[divian]

I'm over the whole posting of lists, it's been done too many times.

I've already posted a list for you in this thread even. Your personal tastes shouldn't be taken into account, only the sales trends for these movies.

Again, I've posted a list, others have too. Just look at the bloody list.


Except those companies actually have announced players, and Lite-On even has a model number. Chinese players don't have anything.

The list is everywhere to be seen.
57 Titles for Blu ray
70 titles for HD DVD.

[dobyblue]

The new Sammy is $799 and the new Sony is $599. Funai said they're expecting their players by Q4 and you don't seriously expect them to come in at the same price as Sony do you?

HD DVD doesn't have an inherent price advantage, they use the same off-the-shelf materials and only slightly different chipsets and laser lenses. Toshiba has been subsidizing their players, so don't expect any other serious companies to join until they can actually make a profit.

It's amazing how many people don't get this. I guess if Onkyo or Meridian releases a player and it's $799-$999 they'll start to catch on.

[1080p]

If Merlins post didn't make it clear, allow me to reiterate,...Amazon sales are INCLUDED in the Nielsen numbers!

I know it's tough coming to grips with reality, but try and come out of the HD DVD coma you appear to be in will ya.

Did you read my original post???

I guess you feel to hurt by the fact that with Amazon it shows an HD DVD title in it's top 10 going and remanding strong, again a title that IS HD DVD that hit the #4 spot of this top ten that Blu-Ray NEVER did EVER

You hate that don't you that's why you avoid it

Guess what I never ever claimed any format win as all you Blu-Ray fanatics love to do. You guys are just to Blu-Headed to realize this war is still in it's infancy. Those numbers mean nothing that you throw up for BD.. there still too many kids crying they have no games, so they get a BD, But PS3 is falling so fast while HD DVD is moving towards a more level approach with cheaper players to get buyers. It's early kids wake up!!
Come on can't you see by Warner releasing the Matrix on HD DVD only 1st, Paramount releasing the "Star Trek" series on HD DVD 1st and the Amazon top 10.. that Blu-Ray Is not winning anything!
NOBODY IS WINNING yet!!! But HD DVD has a better chance
ever manufactures are uncertain look at Samsung for instance

Get ready for "300" on HD DVD with that exclusive IME content


P.S.
Did you hear any news from FOX yet. I mean with such great sales you'd think they would still release some crap titles while they wait for BD+ so they can pick up some of that cash.. No?

Oh and BD+? If you think that's going to help win this war, well keep dreaming because that little bugger is going to kill Blu-Ray for good

[dobyblue]

Nobody can deny that PE's ranking is very impressive for Blu-ray and moreso for HD DVD, but still Blu-ray outsold HD DVD 71:29 during the week that title came out.

BD+ you should be thankful for, if it weren't for BD+ all those MGM and Fox titles like Independence Day, Master and Commander, Silence of the Lambs, Hannibal, etc., would be coming out by now.

Then how poorly would the sales data be for HD DVD? Yes BD+ is hurting Blu-ray right now, but it's only temporary.

[mrkiller]

Like Nutty Professor 2?

or like the Ultimate Matrix Collection .