Nielsen/VideoScan 2008 Sales Metrics Thread: Ratios, Bestsellers, Weekly Charts etc

**Kosty** · 10-23-2008 12:21 AM

This is a continuation of the Nielsen/Videoscan sales thread.

The first posts will be updated weekly by me with a link on this post to the current weekly discussion.

Discussion on current week sales figures is here (week ending 12/21)

[http://forums.highdefdigest.com/sale...ts-etc-29.html

older thread located here: http://forums.highdefdigest.com/sale...llers-etc.html

**Kosty** · 10-23-2008 12:21 AM

Graphs are based off of the weekly data as published in Home Media Magazine.

Last week on right (week ending 12/21)

2 Column chart added

**Kosty** · 10-23-2008 12:22 AM

Note: these charts are now current with revenue charts posted above.
Note: these charts are now current with revenue charts posted above.

Blu-ray Top 20 Units 2008 trend graphs

**Kosty** · 10-23-2008 12:22 AM

Please use scroll bar to see complete data set

The data here is format totals, the last column is the top 20 title for each format comparison %.

Newest week is on top of the chart.

(-$111.67 M) (- $14.27 M) change from last week
( -24.20% ) ( -23.48 %)

WEEKLY REVENUE CALCULATIONS

Code:

Data from HMM thru week ending 12/21/2008  (Newest week on top)


Date    DVD  Blu-ray  DVD+BD  BD/(DVD+BD) BD/DVD*100  BD% of
     revenue revenue  revenue  revenue    rev index   top 20 units   Releases

12/21 349.84  46.51   396.35  11.73 %     13.29     11 %  Mama Mia 
12/14 461.51  60.78   522.29  11.64 %     13.17     14 %  The Dark Knight
12/07 240.59  23.64   264.23   8.95 %     09.83     11 %  Wanted,Naria: Prince
11/30 386.35  27.68   414.03   6.69 %     07.16     10 %  Hancock     
11/23 178.46  18.60   197.06   9.44 %     10.42     11 %  Wall-E 
11/16 174.17  20.17   194.34  10.38 %     11.58      9 %  Hellboy II Kung Fu Panda 
11/09 118.55  10.99   129.54   8.48 %     09.27      8 %  Get Smart
11/02 118.26  12.22   130.48   9.37 %     10.33      8 %  Tinker Bell 
10/26 123.16  17.71   140.87  12.57 %     14.38     12 %  The Incredible Hulk 
10/19 129.41  17.94   147.35  12.18 %     13.86     11 %  Indiana Jones KOCS 
10/12 126.10  14.37   140.47  10.23 %     11.40     10 %  Sleeping Beauty 
10/05 144.38  26.84   171.22  15.68 %     18.59     13 % (4Q) Ironman

9/28  118.94  10.92   129.86   8.41 %     09.18      6 % Sex in the City (3Q)
9/21  111.29   8.87   120.16   7.38 %     07.97      8 %
9/14  111.28   9.18   120.46   7.62 %     08.25      8 %
9/07  111.11  10.60   121.71   8.71 %     09.54     12 %  Transformers
8/31  124.23   9.11   133.34   6.83 %     07.33      6 %
8/24  120.41   7.07   127.48   5.55 %     05.87      6 %
8/17  111.17   6.19   117.36   5.27 %     05.57      8 %
8/10  125.81   6.89   132.70   5.19 %     05.48      7 %
8/03  124.93   9.42   134.35   7.01 %     07.54     10 %
7/27  115.75   8.00   123.75   6.46 %     06.91      9 %
7/20  112.23   7.61   119.84   6.35 %     06.78      8 %
7/13  115.29   8.42   123.71   6.81 %     07.30     12 %
7/06  121.63   7.86   129.49   6.07 %     06.46      7 % (3Q)

6/29  129.76   8.88   138.64   6.41 %     06.84      7 % (2Q) 
6/22  123.46   8.48   131.94   6.43 %     06.87      6 %
6/15  160.20  12.73   172.93   7.36 %     07.95      7 % Bucket List Jumper
6/08  123.74  10.02   133.76   7.49 %     08.10      9 % Rambo
6/01  129.37  10.05   139.42   7.21 %     07.32     10 % National Treasure
5/25  148.88  12.38   161.26   7.68 %     08.32      7 % National Treasure BOS
5/18  126.46   7.99   134.45   5.94 %     06.32      5 %
5/11  124.60   6.56   131.16   5.00 %     05.26      5 %
5/4   101.25   7.08   111.33   6.54 %     06.99      5 %
4/27  106.76   9.20   115.96   7.93 %     08.62      6 %

1/06 thru       (1/01 thru 4/20 totals) 
4/20 totals
      2,573.43 76.61 2,650.04  2.89 %     02.98      ? %


1/06 thru
4/20 average per week (16 weeks, average per week  1/06 thru 4/20)
        160.83  4.79  165.62   2.89 %     02.98      ? %     

4/20  Unknown  9.92   Unknown  Unknown    Unknown    6 %

4/13                                                 5 %
4/06                                                 4 % (2Q) 

3/30                                                 8 % (1Q)
3/23                                                 6 %

YEAR TO DATE REVENUE CALCULATIONS

Code:

Calculated Year To Date 1/1/08 thru 12/21/08)

Date    DVD  Blu-ray  DVD+BD  BD/(DVD+BD) BD/DVD*100  BD% of
     revenue revenue  revenue  revenue    revenue    top 20 units

YTD  7922.76 587.49  8510.25   6.90 %	  07.4152       ? % (total revenue thru 12/21) 

(HMM Reported Year To Date 1/1/08 thru 11/16/08) 	 

YTD  6306.01 410.28  6716.29   6.11 %	  06.51       4 % (total revenue thru 11/16)

Blu-ray's YTD Market Share continues to grow from the reported 11/16 stats.

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ques...m782249PMN/#/4

11/23 data adjusted with official stats from HMM staff

(BD/DVD*100 is a relative market share index of Blu-ray to DVD sales)
(BD/(DVD+DVD) is the Blu-ray market share expressed as a percentage)

**Kosty** · 10-23-2008 12:24 AM

scroll bar to see complete data set

Latest week is now first, BD/DVD Index is now added

BD% on chart is BD/(BD+DVD)% of top 20 units (the pie chart %)

Code:

All units and % are top 20 titles that week for each format

Date   DVDTop20  DVD%  TotalTop20  BD%   BDTop20   BD/DVD*100 (relative market share index)      

12/21 14,589,744  89%  16,392,971  11%  1,803,227  12.36
12/14 15,656,259  86%  18,204,952  14%  2,548,693  16.28
12/07 13,065,998  89%  14,680,897  11%  1,614,899  12.36
11/30 13,891,705  90%  15,435,228  10%  1,543,523  11.11
11/23 12,762,159  89%  14,339,504  11%  1,577,345  12.36 
11/16  8,951,543  91%   9,836,860   9%    885,317   9.89
11/09  4,813,398  92%   5,231,954   8%    418,556   8.70  
11/02  5,084,812  92%   5,526,970   8%    442,158   8.70
10/26  5,870,781  88%   6,671,342  12%    800,561  13.64
10/19  5,515,943  89%   6,197,689  11%    681,746  12.36          
10/12  5,022,723  90%   5,580,803  10%    558,080  11.11          
10/05  7,645,705  87%   8,788,167  13%  1,142,462  14.94  (4Q)	

9/28   3,563,085  94%   3,790,516   6%    227,431   6.38  (3Q) 	      
9/21   2,660,810  92%   2,892,185   8%    231,375   8.70 	       
9/14   2,905,757  92%   3,158,432   8%    252,675   8.70   	     
9/07   2,237,375  88%   2,542,472  12%    305,097  13.60	       
8/31   3,700,328  94%   3,936,519   6%    236,191   6.38 	       
8/24   2,721,414  94%   2,895,121   6%    173,707   6.38 	       
8/17   1,300,437  92%   1,413,518   8%    113,081   8.70	    
8/10   1,904,530  93%   2,047,882   7%    143,352   7.53 	      
8/03   2,410,745  90%   2,678,606  10%    267,861  11.11	      
7/27   1,999,902  91%   2,197,695   9%    197,793   9.89	     
7/20   2,661,096  92%   2,892,496   8%    231,400   8.70	      
7/13   2,161,864  88%   2,456,664  12%    294,800  13.64 	       
7/06   2,344,112  93%   2,520,551   7%    176,439   7.53 (3Q)    

6/29   3,387,810  93%   3,642,806   7%    254,996   7.53 (2Q)	    
6/22   2,941,032  94%   3,128,757   6%    187,725   6.38   
6/15   4,549,086  93%   4,891,490   7%    342,404   7.53 
6/08   2,924,484  91%   3,213,719   9%    289,235   9.89     
6/01   2,969,115  90%   3,299,017  10%    329,902  11.11     
5/25   6,032,181  93%   6,486,216   7%    454,035   7.53    
5/18   4,116,119  95%   4,332,757   5%    216,638   7.53     
5/11   3,436,325  95%   3,617,184   5%    180,859   5.36     
5/04   3,951,319  95%   4,159,283   5%    207,964   5.26      
4/27   3,704,727  94%   3,941,199   6%    236,472   6.38      
4/20   4,599,084  94%   4,892,643   6%    293,559   6.38 (2Q)

...by this methodology this is the:

12/21 is now the second best unit sales week for the top 20 Blu-ray titles ever with an estimate of (down from 12/14's 2,548,693)

The last five weeks now have been the highest five weeks ever as well.

Calculations have been revised to take into account relative Blu-ray and DVD market shares.

As the Blu-ray top 20 share % is apparently a market share number, the total reported DVD units would have to be divided by the DVD market share (ie for week of 10/5 Blu-ray = 13%, DVD would be 87% market share) to get a total DVD + Blu-ray = total discs sold, that would then be multiplied out by the Blu-ray market share to get the top 20 Blu-ray units sold

In other words the calculation is
DVD top 20 unit sales numbers / DVD top 20 unit sales ratio = (BD + DVD) top 20 unit sales numbers
then to get the Blu-ray top 20 unit sales ...
(BD + DVD) top 20 unit sales numbers X Blu-ray top 20 unit sales ratio = BD top 20 unit sales numbers
or
(BD + DVD) top 20 unit sales numbers - DVD top 20 unit sales numbers = BD top 20 unit sales numbers

(Same calculations would apply for individual Blu-ray sales of a title that is listed on the HMM weekly BD Market share chart where we also have the DVD sales for that title for the week on the-numbers DVD top 20 sales chart)

http://the-numbers.com/dvd/charts/weekly/thisweek.php

(BD/DVD*100 is a relative market share index of Blu-ray to DVD sales)
(BD/(DVD+DVD) is the Blu-ray market share expressed as a percentage)

**Kosty** · 10-23-2008 12:25 AM

The post below is the start of the historical discussions for older weeks sales figures. (ie the next post is for discussion of 10/12/2008 data.

See first post for (hopefully current link to this weeks discussion, or log on the forum for "go to last unread post" icons, or go to near the end of the thread for the current active discussion.

This is a sticky ongoing thread where the discussion goes on and on.

I've tried to make it easier by keeping some of the initial posts current with updated data and a link to the current weekly discussion.

Go to the new stuff and jump into the discussion.

Thanks

Kosty

**Kosty** · 10-23-2008 12:26 AM

EDIT: FOR NEW READERS OF THIS THREAD. THIS IS OLD DATA KEPT HERE FOR REFERENCE.

SEE FIRST POST FOR LINK TO CURRENT ONGOING DISCUSSION ON THE NEWEST SALES FIGURES OR READ THE POST ABOVE THIS ONE FOR MORE INFORMATION

Sleeping Beauty Week 1 Ironman Week 2

**Kosty** · 10-23-2008 12:27 AM

Code:

		
1	 1,337,751       Sleeping Beauty
2	 1,215,615       Iron Man
3	   653,090	 Happening, The
4	   498,714	 You Don't Mess with the Zohan
5	   267,818	 Sex and the City - The Movie
6	   235,578	 Forgetting Sarah Marshall
7	   156,383	 Simpsons, The - The Complete Eleventh Season
8	    72,372	 Nightmare Before Christmas, The
9	    71,837	 Joy Ride 2: Dead Ahead
10	    58,594	 Office, The - Season Four
11	    54,313	 Speed Racer
12	    50,835	 Robot Chicken - Season 3
13	    48,828	 Forbidden Kingdom, The
14	    45,082	 30 Rock - Season 2
15	    44,547	 Baby Mama
16	    44,280	 88 Minutes
17	    43,611	 Leatherheads
18	    43,076	 Little Mermaid - Ariel's Beginning, The
19	    42,273	 How I Met Your Mother - Season Three
20	    38,126	 South Park - The Cult of Cartman

	 5,022,723	Total Top 20 DVD Sales
	
21	    37,725	 Made of Honor
22	    36,788	 Love Guru, The
23	    35,718	 Barbie and the Diamond Castle
24	    34,514	 Dora the Explorer - Dora Saves the Snow Princess
25	    33,042	 Heroes - Season Two
26	    32,240	 What Happens in Vegas
27	    30,902	 Transformers
28	    29,431	 Grey's Anatomy - The Complete Fourth Season
29	    26,621	 Saw IV
30	    24,481	 Saw
		
	   321,462	Total top 21-30 DVD sales

		
	 5,022,723	Total Top 20 DVD Sales
	   321,462	
	 5,344,185	Total Top 30 DVD Sales

**Kosty** · 10-23-2008 12:28 AM

reserved x c

**Kosty** · 10-23-2008 12:29 AM

If we check to see what titles are on both the HMM BD Market share chart that we have the estimated DVD sales from The-Numbers.com top 30 sales chart we get the following sales figures for those Blu-ray titles that are on both charts.

Code:

DVD sales	DVD %	 DVD+BD	     `BD share	BD sales			
1,337,751	90.68%	1,475,244	 9.32%	137,493	 Sleeping Beauty		
1,215,615	84.02%	1,446,816	15.98%	231,201	 Iron Man		
  653,090	92.04%	  709,572	 7.96%	 56,482	 Happening, The		
  498,714	92.59%	  538,626	 7.41%	 39,912	 You Don't Mess with the Zohan		
  267,818	95.57%	  280,232	 4.43%	 12,414	 Sex and the City - The Movie		  
  235,578	92.17%	  255,591	 7.83%   20,013	 Forgetting Sarah Marshall		
   72,372	81.12%	   89,216	18.88%   16,844	 Nightmare Before Christmas, The		
   54,313	83.40%	   65,124	16.60%	 10,811	 Speed Racer
   16.625       65.02%     47,527       34.98%   16,625  Transformers

That accounts for 541,795 top 20 Blu-ray units. The top 21-30 DVD bestsellers combined did 321,462 units.

The top 20 Blu-ray titles are already selling more volume and contributing more to studio revenues than the top 21-30 DVD sales for the week.

The top 4 Blu-ray titles would by themselves be on the top 20 DVD chart if listed as distinct titles by units sales.

A lot of the Blu-ray titles are dormant already for DVD sales and have already fallen off the top 30 DVD sales chart.

Code:

BD Market Share  Title

57.29%	Interview with a Vampire	
53.72%	The Godfather	
52.38%	Young Frankenstein	
50.25%	300	
49.51%	The Shining	
46.42%	Troy: Directors Cut	
40.71%	Batman Begins	
36.57%	Beetlejuice	
35.84%	The Departed	
31.85%	I Am Legend	
16.10%	Casino Royale

The following DVD top 30 titles were not on the Blu-ray top 20 sales chart or on the BD Market share chart, 9 of the top 30 DVDs have not been released on Blu-ray yet.

Code:

7	156,383	 Simpsons, The - The Complete Eleventh Season			
9	71,837	 Joy Ride 2: Dead Ahead			
10	58,594	 Office, The - Season Four			
12	50,835	 Robot Chicken - Season 3			
13	48,828	 Forbidden Kingdom, The	        (on Blu-ray)		
14	45,082	 30 Rock - Season 2			
15	44,547	 Baby Mama			(on Blu-ray)
16	44,280	 88 Minutes			
17	43,611	 Leatherheads			(on Blu-ray)
18	43,076	 Little Mermaid - Ariel's Beginning, The			
19      42,273	 How I Met Your Mother - Season Three			
20	38,126	 South Park - The Cult of Cartman

**Kosty** · 10-23-2008 12:30 AM

Using Ironman as 100.00 Index. Using the above for Ironman Blu-ray sales, we get the following top 20 Blu-ray sales estimates per title:

Code:

Index  BD sales	
100.00	231,201		 Iron Man		
 68.80	159,066		 Sleeping Beauty		
 23.68	 54,748		 Happening, The		
 16.92	 39,119	 	 You Don't Mess with the Zohan		
  9.41	 21,756	 	 Forgetting Sarah Marshall		
  5.76	 13,317		 Sex and the City - The Movie		
  5.00	 11,560	 	 I Am Legend BD		
  4.58	 10,589	 	 300 BD		
  4.47	 10,335	 	 Nightmare Before Christmas, The		
  4.41	 10,196	 	 The Godfather BD		
  4.35	 10,057	 	 Beetlejuice	BD	
  3.33	  7,699	  	 Speed Racer		
  3.11	  7,190	  	 Batman Begins BD		
  2.79	  6,451	  	 Young Frankenstein BD		
  2.78	  6,427	  	 Interview with a Vampire BD		
  2.60	  6,011	  	 Casino Royale BD		
  2.44	  5,641	         Troy: Directors Cut BD		
  2.42	  5,595	         The Shining	 BD	
  2.41	  5,572	         The Departed BD

Those titles with BD after them were not on the The-Numbers.com top 30 DVD sales chart, and had less than 24,481 DVD sales for the week.

**Kosty** · 10-23-2008 12:30 AM

The index calculation and the BD market share calculation give a range for those titles on both lists.

Code:

         Index Calc BD Share Calc 			
	 159,066    137,493      Sleeping Beauty		
	 231,201    231,201	 Iron Man		
	  54,748     56,482	 Happening, The		
	  39,119     39,912	 You Don't Mess with the Zohan		
	  13,317     12,414	 Sex and the City - The Movie		  
	  21,756     20,013	 Forgetting Sarah Marshall		
	  10,335     16,844	 Nightmare Before Christmas, The		
	   7,699     10,811	 Speed Racer
            N/A      16,625      Transformers

**Kosty** · 10-23-2008 12:32 AM

reserved x 1

**Kosty** · 10-23-2008 12:32 AM

reserved x2

**Kosty** · 10-23-2008 12:33 AM

current weekly discussion starts here for week ending 10/18

Thread: Nielsen/VideoScan 2008 Sales Metrics Thread: Ratios, Bestsellers, Weekly Charts etc

Thread Tools

Nielsen/VideoScan 2008 Sales Metrics Thread: Ratios, Bestsellers, Weekly Charts etc

Blu-ray versus DVD sales graphs from HMM data and top 20% updated thru 12/21 data

Blu-ray Top 20 Units 2008 trend graphs

HMM reported Blu-ray weekly sales data updated thru 12/21

Sales estimates using The-Numbers.com top 20 data current thru week ending 12/21

Notice To New Readers Of This Thread !!!

NOTICE THIS IS OLD DATA: Week ending 10/12 Weekly Blu-ray Rollup

The-Numbers DVD top 30 unit sales numbers week ending 10/12

Estimate of 10/12 Blu-ray unit sales by BD Market Share % & The-Numbers top 30 chart

10/12 Top 20 Blu-ray units sold using HMM Top 20 Blu-ray Disc sales

Week ending 10/12 Blu-ray unit sale estimate range for selected titles

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