Some current Blu-ray sales estimates for the year

[Kosty]

I've made a series of calculations of Blu-ray sales estimates for the year in the Neilsen/Videoscan thread starting on about post 2087.

Driven by data released by Hollywood in High Def from The Redhill Group, from Home Media Magazine's weekly Blu-ray tracking Nielsen/Videoscan data pie chart, from top 20 DVD sales from The-numbers site and some calculations based on those numbers.

That also includes some estimates of Wal-Mart and non Wal-Mart Blu-ray sales.

http://forums.highdefdigest.com/show...76#post1121676

Comments are appreciated.

[bomba]

Great work compiling the figures Kosty, yet I can't help but not the inconsistency of the numbers across the sources (Neilsen/Redhill/The-numbers.com). Muddles the picture, there is a wide difference between failure and success at 5-10% of DVD.

[Kosty]

Thanks for the postive comments.

There really isn't that much inconsistency, they are just measuring different things.

For example, the HMM reported Nielsen/Videoscan first alert numbers as reported by Home Media Magazine ( and probably the Redhill Group numbers) don't include Wal-Mart. By various reports, Wal-Mart/Sam's Club does 40% of DVD volumes and probably is 20-30% of Blu-ray volumes now. Wal-MArt choose not to participate in retail data aggregaters databases.

The-Numbers.com data is not from the Nielsen/Videoscan POS reports and does include an estimate for Wal-Mart sales ( the studios know exactly what they have sold at Wal-Mart due to their vendor sales data system) and therefore is a bit higher number.

The overall sales number as reported by HMM seems to account for Wal-Mart also, and therefore when I calculate out a estimate of total Blu-ray units, which includes Wal-Mart, its going to be higher than the estimate from Nielsen/Videoscan which does not include Wal-Mart.

And the top 20 unit comparison will not match total units or revenues between the formats because of many factors including different release schedules, some titles are not available on Blu-ray , and the fact that Blu-ray releases of catalog titles are new and that DVD sales of the same titles are pretty much dormant.

The real value is seeing how each metric does over time and in comparison from year to year seasonal periods.

The neat thing is that each metric is consistent over time even if they don't exactly match each other without some adjustment .

All this is just practice pre-game time now anyway. The real crunch time will occur in the 4th quarter when things start to heat up in retail volumes.