Digital doesn't break disc- DVD, BD hold up despite onslaught of negative press

[Lee Stewart]

Originally Posted by Grubert

BD unit sales in 2007 were 1.6 million in the first half and 4.1 million in the second half.

The Hollywood Reporter writes that unit sales of Blu-ray discs were up 340 percent in the first half of 2008, with the number of discs sold around 7.4 million

http://www.tvpredictions.com/blu071408.htm

I make it $26.22 average BD disc cost with revenue of $194 million.

To hit $700 million - they will have to sell 16 million BD discs for Q3 and Q4

To hit $1 billion they will have to sell 27.5 million BD discs for Q3 and Q4.

[ack_bak]

Originally Posted by jcc

I was wondering about this myself.

Where your assumptions break down, though, is you are comparing Blu-ray performance with DVD. DVD is not growing, but Blu-ray is growing at somthing like 350% per year. So, if Q4 follows that trend, Blu-ray will get a substantially larger bump than DVD.

We'll discuss this again in January...

I think $1 billion is a very aggressive number from the BDA. $700 million? Seems doable:
- As you mentioned Blu-Ray is a growing format. And we should see some solid deals on BD players in Q4 along with even more players and CE's entering the field. The more CE's and players, the more competition.
- PS3 sales in Q4 should be stronger than last year judging by how well it is selling this year compared to last year.
- Of course content. Iron Man, Hulk, Dark Knight, Wall-E, Indy 4, Hancock, Hellboy II, Get Smart catalog titles, etc.. This is the main reason why I think we will see huge growth in late Q3 into Q4. We have not seen a $100M+ released on BD this year so far, and later this year we should have 10-12 high grossing movies. Many of which are made to be seen in hidef...
- Content sales. BD has higher margins than DVD's so there is more room for sales on catalog titles. I think we could see some strong BOGO-type sales in Q4. Especially with more and more stores stocking Blu-Ray movies. I expect to see Amazon and Wal-mart really start duking it out in Q4 and Best Buy will most likely be forced to be more competitive on pricing.

I think $700 million is doable. But all of the above things need to fall into place...

[xboxboi]

oh please add another 10mil online video streaming service from Xbox + Netflix.

The service is less than $13 per month for access to more than 10K netflix titles.

and oh btw - netflix's streaming set top box - Roku, was sold out in 2 weeks and was just recently restocked. At least another major CE is going to release netflix set top box before 2009

[zombieflanders]

Originally Posted by xboxboi

oh please add another 10mil online video streaming service from Xbox + Netflix.

The service is less than $13 per month for access to more than 10K netflix titles.

and oh btw - netflix's streaming set top box - Roku, was sold out in 2 weeks and was just recently restocked. At least another major CE is going to release netflix set top box before 2009

You do know that streaming already has a catalog in excess of 10k and several times as many devices and has been out nearly 3 times as long, yet combined HD and SD streaming still hasn't managed to come close to Blu-ray (which is HD only)?

[xboxboi]

Originally Posted by zombieflanders

You do know that streaming already has a catalog in excess of 10k and several times as many devices and has been out nearly 3 times as long, yet combined HD and SD streaming still hasn't managed to come close to Blu-ray (which is HD only)?

you mean BD + PS3? try to take PS3 out of the equation and take average sales figure instead of bragging about the 1st week sales and see the picture is as purty as Sony would like the whole to see

[xboxboi]

and oh, digital ill break optical. the clock is ticking! older generation who do not rat about technology and want movies to be one communication are either slowing dieing of old age where the new kids born are more affluent with technology

[zombieflanders]

Originally Posted by xboxboi

you mean BD + PS3? try to take PS3 out of the equation and take average sales figure instead of bragging about the 1st week sales and see the picture is as purty as Sony would like the whole to see

Translation: "I don't believe reality, everyone look at something entirely theoretical!"

[Trekker4Life]

Originally Posted by Grubert

3. No Country for Old Men 137,000

SUCKERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[crazzeto]

Originally Posted by Trekker4Life

SUCKERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!

God I hated No Country...

[ack_bak]

Originally Posted by xboxboi

oh please add another 10mil online video streaming service from Xbox + Netflix.

The service is less than $13 per month for access to more than 10K netflix titles.

and oh btw - netflix's streaming set top box - Roku, was sold out in 2 weeks and was just recently restocked. At least another major CE is going to release netflix set top box before 2009

There are several problems I see with Netfilx's streaming service. The titles are not new releases. There is no HD. I don't see either of those things happening anytime soon with the Netflix streaming service on the 360. Why? Because MS already offers that at a much higher price.

[crazzeto]

Originally Posted by ack_bak

There are several problems I see with Netfilx's streaming service. The titles are not new releases. There is no HD. I don't see either of those things happening anytime soon with the Netflix streaming service on the 360. Why? Because MS already offers that at a much higher price.

I'm sure if Netflix starts offering up HD microsoft won't stop them from distributing it on the 360... That said lord knows when the studio's are going to be ok with allowing ah-la-carte streaming of HD movies... And they one has to wonder if Netflix digital encodes will match the encodes offered by video store (which generally works very well). Like I said, I'm not entirly too sure whether or not I'll sign up for this one or not, *MAYBE* I'll give it a try, but who knows.... Considering I can get most new releases I want to see off of video store in HD with DD 5.1 I just don't see the appeal of netflix ATM.

[ack_bak]

Originally Posted by crazzeto

I'm sure if Netflix starts offering up HD microsoft won't stop them from distributing it on the 360... That said lord knows when the studio's are going to be ok with allowing ah-la-carte streaming of HD movies... And they one has to wonder if Netflix digital encodes will match the encodes offered by video store (which generally works very well). Like I said, I'm not entirly too sure whether or not I'll sign up for this one or not, *MAYBE* I'll give it a try, but who knows.... Considering I can get most new releases I want to see off of video store in HD with DD 5.1 I just don't see the appeal of netflix ATM.

If Netflix does convince the studios to allow HD streaming, I am certain it will cost more, and will not apply to new releases.

[Thulium]

Originally Posted by ack_bak

If Netflix does convince the studios to allow HD streaming, I am certain it will cost more, and will not apply to new releases.

Hey, ack...do you realize you just said the phrase "HD streaming" with a straight face. I've seen HD streaming, its called Comcast HD On Demand and upconverting on a PS3 looks better.

[crazzeto]

Originally Posted by Thulium

Hey, ack...do you realize you just said the phrase "HD streaming" with a straight face. I've seen HD streaming, its called Comcast HD On Demand and upconverting on a PS3 looks better.

no offence but you lose by virtue of the fact that you're using comcast for HD.... Not really trying to put you down personally, but were you aware of the compression games comcast is playing that every other TV provider isn't? If that's your only choice, I'd recommend switching to satallite if cost effective and practical.

[xboxboi]

Originally Posted by ack_bak

There are several problems I see with Netfilx's streaming service. The titles are not new releases. There is no HD. I don't see either of those things happening anytime soon with the Netflix streaming service on the 360. Why? Because MS already offers that at a much higher price.

again, i would point out that its naive to assume that the general consumers is interested in HD at because they bought a 32" or bigger HDTV. I mean seriously is there any other choice other then getting HDTVs now aways, almost 100% CEs have discontinued non HDTVs. General consumers have no choice but to get HDTV whether they like/need HDTV or not. This is the same mentality that Swan Sez has at TVPrediction who thinks he is god and know that 100% HDTV owners are dead interested in HD contents!

If MS want xbox to be the household entertainment hub, the will have to loosen up on HD content monopoly. The problem with HD is it has a niche market and will continue to be so. This is where corporations can rip money out of HD contents while they last.