Digital doesn't break disc- DVD, BD hold up despite onslaught of negative press

[Dave J]

Originally Posted by mikemorel

Blu-ray disc sales, in January 2008 = 1.3 million.

Bllu-ray disc sales, in April 2008 = 900,000.

Thise are BDA numbers.

Blu-ray withering into UMD status. Good times.

Originally Posted by Grubert

...and Blu-ray disc sales in Jan-Jun = 7,370,000

You do the math.

As seen in this graphic, BD sales YTD were 1.71 million as of August 12th, 2007. BD unit sales YTD for 2008 are already 4.3x that (7.37 million) with approximately 1.5 months of unit sales data still to be collected.

I think mikemorel doth protest too much!

[tonyb]

Originally Posted by mikemorel

Blu-ray disc sales, in January 2008 = 1.3 million.

Bllu-ray disc sales, in April 2008 = 900,000.

did you really attempt to compared January's figures to April's?






what happened? you used to be able to come up with a reasonable or something that wasn't laughable to prove that HD wasn't wanted and people would go back to SD or SD+

[Grubert]

Originally Posted by mikemorel

HD Downloads need a standard, which is coming in October. It's called DVD. You may have heard of it.

Look for it at a web site, video store, or shopping mall kiosk near you. Millions of XBox 360s, PCs, Roku Boxes, set top boxes, HD DVD players (and possibly PS3s, and BD Live players) will be playing them.

Really good times.

Are you talking about this?

[jcc]

Originally Posted by Grubert

Are you talking about this?

I'm wondering if DVD Download will be intended to buy, download and burn, or just keep on your hard drive. They won't want to make it too easy to pirate, so it will probably have DRM and various restrictions that prevent them from being portable.

In any case, it is not likely to be a good consumer value, so will only appeal to people who like to pay extra for digital novelties. You could buy a disc that's nicely packaged on archival quality media that will last decades, or you can pay nearly the same amount for lower image and sound quality, and you also have to pay for bandwidth to download it and the media to store it, if they let you.

I really don't think consumers are that stupid, but I could be wrong.

[Grubert]

Nice commentary:

Blu-ray Is Booming; Wall Street Analysts Are Blooming Idiots

One analyst says Wall Street doesn't understand the home video industry; he's right.

By Swanni


[...]

Tom Adams could not be more right. From DVRs to the Apple TV to Interactive TV to now Blu-ray, Wall Street analysts have been dead wrong on predicting the future of nearly every new TV technology.

They have said millions of people would buy products from their TV screens using Interactive TV remote controls; they have said people would stop watching ads because of the DVR (they also said TiVo would conquer the world); they have said the Apple TV would become a cultural phenomenon; and now they are saying that digital downloads will take over the living room.

Wrong! Wrong! Wrong!

Financial analysts, many of which are based in New York and have incomes that far exceed the average person, do not understand the average home viewer; they see the industry through their eyes only, and therefore, too often hype new tech products as the next big thing.

Why? Because they think the products are "cool."

But digital downloads is their latest mistake with the analysts saying millions of home viewers will soon connect their TVs to Net-capable devices.

However, the analysts forget two things: most Americans are not tech-savvy and are confused by Internet TV devices. And two, it takes too damn long to download a high-def movie over the Net.

It will still be a few years before Blu-ray becomes a mass audience product. But it will be years and years and years before digital downloads are ready for primetime.

All I can say is that any investor who listens to a Wall Street analyst on TV technology issues should have his head examined because you're guaranteed to lose your money.

Thanks to forum member 'TheDaddy' for originally posting it.

[Grubert]

Originally Posted by jcc

I'm wondering if DVD Download will be intended to buy, download and burn, or just keep on your hard drive. They won't want to make it too easy to pirate, so it will probably have DRM and various restrictions that prevent them from being portable.

Download-to-burn a DVD, with CSS.

Under DVD Forum regulations, until now, recordings of CSS-encrypted content were prohibited on DVD recordable media by the Recordable Media Playback Control rule (CSS compliance rule). Therefore conventional DVD playback devices were so far designed not to play CSS-encrypted video contents on current DVD-R discs.

Recently, the CSS compliance rule has been changed to permit the "CSS Recordable DVD" (DVD-Download disc). In order to achieve high playback compatibility, it was necessary to change the DVD-R physical specifications related to disc identification (bit setting in the Control Data zone, groove wobble specifications and modifications necessary to keep consistency with read-only DVD-Video).

In March 2007, DVD-Download Specifications rev.1.0 became a new Main Book, in the DVD Forum parlance, separate from the DVD-R for General Book.

The recent announcement expands the single-layer DVD-Download Specifications into the dual-layer specifications now that technical aspects have been ironed out [hence the DL at the bottom right of the logo].

http://www.dvd-intelligence.com/main...vddownload.htm

[zombieflanders]

Grubert:

The article's up at Reuters if you want to update the initial post with cleaner text:

http://www.reuters.com/article/filmN...dChannel=10216

[Grubert]

Originally Posted by zombieflanders

Grubert:

The article's up at Reuters if you want to update the initial post with cleaner text:

http://www.reuters.com/article/filmN...dChannel=10216

Thanks, I put in the Hollywood Reporter link.

But I left the original initial paragraph from HMM

[Lee Stewart]

Hmmmm . . . First 6 months for BD = $194 million . . .

How are they going to hit their target revenue of $700 million to $1 billion with sales like that?

DVD - 2007 - by quarter

http://www.videobusiness.com/info/CA6436202.html

Graphs shows in total.

5.6bn was spent in Q1
4.4bn was spent in Q2
4bn was spent in Q3
8bn was spent in Q4

In Q1 and Q2 - BD sales were $194 million - that's $97 million per quarter - average - or we could say:

Q1 - $104 million
Q2 - $90 million
Q3 - ESTIMATE based on 2007 - $85 million (weakest quarter)

That means to reach $700 million total for 2008, they would need $421 million in Q4. To do $1 billion - it would be $721 million.

Does anyone really think that is going to happen?

[Grubert]

Wasn't next ban after a one-week ban supposed to be one month?

[Favelle]

Originally Posted by Grubert

Wasn't next ban after a one-week ban supposed to be one month?

Ban for what exactly?

Good grief.

[Flex Mentallo]

Originally Posted by Favelle

Ban for what exactly?

Who knows. It's crazy up in here brother.

I'm going to grab another beer.

[Grubert]

Originally Posted by Favelle

Ban for what exactly?

Only the banned person and the admins know exactly. What we do know is that he was banned on Jun 19 for a week:


And again in July 8:


For another week.

[jcc]

Originally Posted by Lee Stewart

Hmmmm . . . First 6 months for BD = $194 million . . .

How are they going to hit their target revenue of $700 million to $1 billion with sales like that?

DVD - 2007 - by quarter

http://www.videobusiness.com/info/CA6436202.html

Graphs shows in total.

5.6bn was spent in Q1
4.4bn was spent in Q2
4bn was spent in Q3
8bn was spent in Q4

In Q1 and Q2 - BD sales were $194 million - that's $97 million per quarter - average - or we could say:

Q1 - $104 million
Q2 - $90 million
Q3 - ESTIMATE based on 2007 - $85 million (weakest quarter)

That means to reach $700 million total for 2008, they would need $421 million in Q4. To do $1 billion - it would be $721 million.

Does anyone really think that is going to happen?

I was wondering about this myself.

Where your assumptions break down, though, is you are comparing Blu-ray performance with DVD. DVD is not growing, but Blu-ray is growing at somthing like 350% per year. So, if Q4 follows that trend, Blu-ray will get a substantially larger bump than DVD.

We'll discuss this again in January...

[Grubert]

Originally Posted by jcc

I was wondering about this myself.

Where your assumptions break down, though, is you are comparing Blu-ray performance with DVD. DVD is not growing, but Blu-ray is growing at somthing like 350% per year. So, if Q4 follows that trend, Blu-ray will get a substantially larger bump than DVD.

We'll discuss this again in January...

BD unit sales in 2007 were 1.6 million in the first half and 4.1 million in the second half.