Nielsen VideoScan for week ended March 11

**ww1seman** · 03-17-2007 09:29 PM

Originally Posted by enigma

There is a good chance CR may outsell ALL HD DVD disks combined this month. Ouch

Why ouch?
I expect that, everything else would be a joke for the BD camp.

**hstewarth** · 03-18-2007 02:51 PM

Originally Posted by enigma

There is a good chance CR may outsell ALL HD DVD disks combined this month. Ouch

I think this is going to be common trend in the future - the more and more it happens the worst it will get for HD DVD!.

**Thulium** · 03-19-2007 09:02 AM

Originally Posted by ack_bak

Something sure doesn't seem right with the numbers.. I keep thinking Nielsen made a mistake.. 5-6K HD DVD titles? They probably sold that many standalones and add-ons and most people buy at least 1-2 titles.. Something is up... I thought the BR numbers would have been much higher. If this is correct, forget worrying about each other's formats. I am worried for HD....

The decline in Blu-ray disc sales doesn't make sense either considering how much Blu-ray discs flew up the Amazon sales rankings with 30-something BD titles spending some quality time in the top 100.

**Balian** · 03-19-2007 01:05 PM

Originally Posted by Thulium

The decline in Blu-ray disc sales doesn't make sense either considering how much Blu-ray discs flew up the Amazon sales rankings with 30-something BD titles spending some quality time in the top 100.

It makes sense if Amazon is not included on the survey. The 25,000 figure would also make sense too ...Amazon taking a lot of sales away from B&M stores.

**ack_bak** · 03-19-2007 01:48 PM

Originally Posted by syster01

It makes sense if Amazon is not included on the survey. The 25,000 figure would also make sense too ...Amazon taking a lot of sales away from B&M stores.

This would be the most logical conclusion, and I agree too. I still have a hard time with the HD DVD numbers though.. Something weird about these Nielsen numbers..

**BanthaPoodoo** · 03-19-2007 07:06 PM

Originally Posted by Merlins

Nielsen VideoScan for week ended March 11:
SI, Blu-ray:HD-DVD
100:89.25

YTD, Blu-ray:HD-DVD
100:47.37

This gives us an estimated weekly sales ratio of 100:23

This is all pretty interesting, ran some figs of my own: It takes HD DVD 4 weeks to increase total disc sales by 100,000. But it takes Blu-ray 3 weeks to increas total sales by 200,000. Reflecting the overall average ratio of 2.67:1.

I wouldn't make to much of the current slump which gives the 4.4:1 ratio. While that fig. looks great for BD, the overall average, which is much more telling, is damning enough. However it'll be interesting to see what happens after this dry spell that HD DVD is currently going through ends (if ever).

One question: Where are you getting the 100:23 from?

It looks like that ratio would match the current slump and not a weekly average as you seem to indicate. (23 x 4.4 = 101.2 ~ This makes the ratios 4.4:1 and 100:23 roughly equal)

**Merlins** · 03-19-2007 07:55 PM

Originally Posted by BanthaPoodoo

One question: Where are you getting the 100:23 from?

It looks like that ratio would match the current slump and not a weekly average as you seem to indicate. (23 x 4.4 = 101.2 ~ This makes the ratios 4.4:1 and 100:23 roughly equal)

The weekly number is not from Nielsen but is estimated as I wrote. It's not an average, the YTD-number from Nielsen is the average weekly sale for this year. I use the Excel spreadsheet from the AVS-forum to do the weekly calculations. It's about the same as discussed in this thread and used by HarakoMeshi:
Consolidated Sales Rank thread (moved from main smackdown forum)

It is supposed to be roughly equal and i rounded my value 100:23 so if we look at more precise numbers they would be even more equal.

As you said, we should not take the number too seriously because it's not any great sales numbers behind those numbers. It would be more interesting to see a 3:1 number for Blu-ray against HD-DVD with the sales number 90k and 30k instead of a 5:1 with the sales numbers 20k against 4k

**zombieflanders** · 03-19-2007 09:22 PM

Originally Posted by ack_bak

This would be the most logical conclusion, and I agree too. I still have a hard time with the HD DVD numbers though.. Something weird about these Nielsen numbers..

The Nielsen ratios have been confirmed by Home Media Magazine. General consensus also seems to be that Amazon is not counted, and some seem to think that could add another ~10,000 discs.

**BanthaPoodoo** · 03-19-2007 11:24 PM

Originally Posted by Merlins

It would be more interesting to see a 3:1 number for Blu-ray against HD-DVD with the sales number 90k and 30k instead of a 5:1 with the sales numbers 20k against 4k

Agree. Thats why I think "victory" is still up in the air, since neither can claim a significant market share. Hell, they can't even claim a significant marketshare combined! Granted, if trends keep up then HD DVD will be DED [tip-o-the-hat

]. But, who knows what Toshiba has up their sleeve. They still have (for now) the advantage of cheaper players. Which I think is still a significant factor. But is it enough? Oh the suspense!

**zombieflanders** · 03-20-2007 10:32 AM

FWIW, a Sony Pictures insider has indicated that the Casino Royale BD has sold over 100,000 copies to date. As in, just one week. I'm holding off on starting a separate thread until the press release he mentioned comes out, but that's...wow.

**Merlins** · 03-20-2007 10:50 AM

Originally Posted by zombieflanders

FWIW, a Sony Pictures insider has indicated that the Casino Royale BD has sold over 100,000 copies to date. As in, just one week. I'm holding off on starting a separate thread until the press release he mentioned comes out, but that's...wow.

Wow, if that number is true, it could mean a 10:1 sales ration for the week... That would mean that Fox is lying with their 3.5:1 sales ratio...

**zombieflanders** · 03-20-2007 10:55 AM

It also means that one BD title sold more in one week than all HD DVDs in all of February. The predicted effect of POTC numbers just got a whole lot more interesting.

**Merlins** · 03-21-2007 06:47 PM

It looks like the Amazon numbers are included in the Nielsen data. One reason to why the numbers are low for Blu-ray despite the Amazon sale is that many titles went out of stock and was not shipped until the week after. This means the numbers will show up on the next update from Nielsen.

This information comes from the AVS forum:

Originally Posted by Grubert

Originally Posted by Icemage

I'm curious about this, as well.

I posted it a few pages back. The inclusion of amazon sales was confirmed personally by the associate publisher of Home Media Magazine in reply to a question I asked by email.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showt...&#post10089779

**kalim1998** · 03-21-2007 10:40 PM

Originally Posted by Merlins

Wow, if that number is true, it could mean a 10:1 sales ration for the week... That would mean that Fox is lying with their 3.5:1 sales ratio...

BAD FOX....you underestimated the depths that HD-DVD is plumbing right now

**kalim1998** · 03-21-2007 10:42 PM

Originally Posted by Merlins

It looks like the Amazon numbers are included in the Nielsen data. One reason to why the numbers are low for Blu-ray despite the Amazon sale is that many titles went out of stock and was not shipped until the week after. This means the numbers will show up on the next update from Nielsen.

So, basically, it shows up at the same time as 4 days of CR (Blu-ray) shows up....if CR (blu-ray) sold approx 100,000 in one week, then that's approx 50k CR-blu-ray plus, say 60k all other blu-ray sales, for a total of 120,000 blu-ray copies.....

If HD-DVD keeps below 10k copies, that's at least a 12:1 ratio!

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