No End In Sight

[HomeTheatreFreak]

By Susanne Ault -- Video Business, 3/8/2007

MARCH 8 | SAN DIEGO—The good news-bad news message that high-definition DVD is a real market but neither HD DVD nor Blu-ray Disc is likely to win the format war this year was woven throughout the DisplaySearch Flat Panel Display Conference 2007, held here March 5-8.

On the positive side, sales of stand-alone high-def DVD players in both formats on a dollar basis combined to represent 8% of the conventional DVD player market during January—twice high-def’s share during the fourth quarter of 2006—said Ross Young, DisplaySearch founder and president. Also during January, monthly PlayStation 3 sales on a dollar basis surpassed those of standard-definition DVD players.

Sharply growing adoption of HDTV sets in U.S. homes have pushed consumers to seek out accompanying next-generation players. The ongoing DVD format war compounded by consumer confusion, however, will work to curb HD DVD and BD adoption for some time, speakers said.

For the last two months, twice as many Blu-ray discs have sold as HD DVD discs, noted conference speaker Vito Mandato, an executive consultant to Paramount Home Entertainment. But he does not see that as a sign that the end of the format war is imminent.

“Some studio chiefs have claimed to have won, but quite honestly the war continues,” said Mandato, who led his speech with the disclaimer that his views may not represent the views of Paramount.

Mandato predicts the number of hardware units in homes by the end of 2007 will be at 1.7 million for each format. On the HD DVD side, that includes 1.2 million stand-alone players and 500,000 Xbox 360 add-on drives. For BD, Mandato is counting only 22%, or 1.2 million, of the 5.5 million PS3 units projected to be sold during the year, plus 500,000 stand-alone players, because his analysis suggests that just 22% of PS3 households purchase movies regularly.

Industry sources say both BD and HD DVD stand-alone player sales were about equal in February. BD stand-alone sales were miniscule compared to sales of the PS3, which one source said surpassed 150,000 units during the month.

Sales are likely to grow slowly until consumers have a better understanding of what high-definition DVD and the two separate formats are, said Russ Crupnick, NPD Group VP-senior industry analyst of entertainment.

A recent NPD survey showed 83% of DVD buyers said they had bought HD DVD titles, and 69% said they had bought BD titles. NPD determined that most had actually bought neither, based on the fact that the titles they reported purchasing were not released in either format.

“So in consumer’s minds, next-generation is closing in on a 2% share of all DVD sales,” said Crupnick. “But in fact, [HD DVD and BD sales] are less than 0.5%.”

Crupnick added that there is stiffening competition for BD and HD DVD as other media forms gain steam. Currently, iTunes’ TV and movie digital sales are 10 times the size of high-def title sales.

Fewer than 10% of DVD buyers said they intend to buy HD DVD or BD in the next six months, when accounting for both HDTV owners and non-owners.

“Research, not speculation, shows that consumers are wildly confused,” said Crupnick. “We need to clarify and educate in order to get that purchase intent from 10% to over 50%.”

Well the good news is that the Stand Alone player sales are sreally starting to rise and I think those are the people that will really start to buy alot of movies for the formats. Overall some pretty good news for HD in general.

[kali]

It's nice to see that the high def formats are making good progress relative to SD DVD. This seems to allay the fear we both had about the high def formats doing poorly overall.

[HarakoMeshi]

Its really funnt, I think I've read 3 articles on this subject today. One said its going to be the end of HD DVD in a few months. One said it might be the end of HD DVD in a few months, but then again it might not. One said there is no end in sight.

[marine92104]

For BD, Mandato is counting only 22%, or 1.2 million, of the 5.5 million PS3 units projected to be sold during the year, plus 500,000 stand-alone players, because his analysis suggests that just 22% of PS3 households purchase movies regularly.

I found this particularly interesting since it was the 1st percentage I've seen quoted on the number of PS3's that are actually being used as Blu-ray players. From some of the posts I've seen in this forum they were counting every PS3 sold as a active Blu-ray player that people were buying movies for on a regular basis. The 22% is a pretty low percentage. And who knows if Sony will actually sell 5.5 million PS3's this year.

For the last two months, twice as many Blu-ray discs have sold as HD DVD discs, noted conference speaker Vito Mandato, an executive consultant to Paramount Home Entertainment. But he does not see that as a sign that the end of the format war is imminent.

I'm wondering if Sony is still thinking the war is over. By the way that's the reason I bought a Panasonic Blu-ray player. Sony's arrogance has completely turned me against their products. I didn't realize so many people hated Sony until I started reading the threads on this forum.

Wait until the Blu-ray studios start re-releasing most of the titles again on BD-50s with better picture & sound after releasing them on BD-25s.

[HomeTheatreFreak]

The part that I found interesting and actually kind of humorous at the same time was this part:

"A recent NPD survey showed 83% of DVD buyers said they had bought HD DVD titles, and 69% said they had bought BD titles. NPD determined that most had actually bought neither, based on the fact that the titles they reported purchasing were not released in either form"

How funny is that. Man the j6p just is really clueless about both of these formats even now and this play against one of BD's biggest advantages. If the people dont even know what format is what then they certainly dont know what movies will be exclusive to BDin t thue future and what ones wont. Its a good bet that a large percentage of people actually buying into these formats have no clue what studios are supporting what format.

Either way, I think its clear from this little NPD poll that both of these formats have a long long way to go with the genral public.

"Yeah I purchased Jurrasic Park on HD DVD just last week. Whats that you say? Jurassic Park isnt on HD DVD, hmmm"

[rmslives]

Add to this discussion this:

http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/sh...ly_in_2007/512

[tranzparentl]

OK so hardware players will be just about even at the end of the year with HD DVD having more stand alones.

Do any of these companies really think this war is about over??

[AV_Integrated]

Originally Posted by tranzparentl

OK so hardware players will be just about even at the end of the year with HD DVD having more stand alones.

Do any of these companies really think this war is about over??

I would think that it is wishful thinking to call them 'just about even'. Any serious analysis of trends shows that BD stand alone sales have pretty much matched HD DVD unit for unit. There is nothing coming up that indicates that HD DVD is on a new found spree that will push them ahead in stand alone sales by 700,000 units compared to Blu-ray.

I would like to hear an explanation of how such a figure was achieved when HD DVD, to this point, really does not have any new hardware coming to market whatsoever.

The 22% number is just as much made up as anything else. If such a mentality is true, and Blu-ray is selling 100% more than HD DVD it will either mean that Blu-ray has an attach rate that is 100% more (not likely) or that far more PS3 units are being used for Blu-ray playback (very likely). I think realistically, 70% or more of PS3 console owners will buy a BD... But I add to this: I believe that PS3 Blu-ray attach rates will be FAR lower than stand alone player attach rates. An average PS3 owner may only buy 2 or 3 titles by the end of the year. The average BD stand alone owner may buy 15 titles or more. But, those are numbers I'm GUESSING at, and I'm just using as example.

I sure as heck would put my guesses as holding just as much validity as those given in the original post though. 700K more standalones from HD DVD by years end... Please! Who do they think they are kidding?

[ww1seman]

Originally Posted by kali

It's nice to see that the high def formats are making good progress relative to SD DVD. This seems to allay the fear we both had about the high def formats doing poorly overall.

Less than 0,5 % of Media sells after more than 1 year on the shelves is what you call good progress!?!?!?

To be realistic, sales are very crappy and way below any executives estimation or pipe dream.

P.S. This is only an opinion by a forum troll and a conman who has no clue what he is talking about...

[tranzparentl]

Originally Posted by HD-DED

I would think that it is wishful thinking to call them 'just about even'.

Well thats just what the article says not me.

I think this article is a lot closer to the truth than Paramount's Advisor who said the war will be over in 3 months. That's laughable.

Every day that goes by and another person buys an HD DVD player and another movie gets released helps ensure the format stays around that much longer.

[moepain4u]

Originally Posted by HomeTheatreFreak

By Susanne Ault -- Video Business, 3/8/2007

MARCH 8 | SAN DIEGO—The good news-bad news message that high-definition DVD is a real market but neither HD DVD nor Blu-ray Disc is likely to win the format war this year was woven throughout the DisplaySearch Flat Panel Display Conference 2007, held here March 5-8.

On the positive side, sales of stand-alone high-def DVD players in both formats on a dollar basis combined to represent 8% of the conventional DVD player market during January—twice high-def’s share during the fourth quarter of 2006—said Ross Young, DisplaySearch founder and president. Also during January, monthly PlayStation 3 sales on a dollar basis surpassed those of standard-definition DVD players.

Sharply growing adoption of HDTV sets in U.S. homes have pushed consumers to seek out accompanying next-generation players. The ongoing DVD format war compounded by consumer confusion, however, will work to curb HD DVD and BD adoption for some time, speakers said.

For the last two months, twice as many Blu-ray discs have sold as HD DVD discs, noted conference speaker Vito Mandato, an executive consultant to Paramount Home Entertainment. But he does not see that as a sign that the end of the format war is imminent.

“Some studio chiefs have claimed to have won, but quite honestly the war continues,” said Mandato, who led his speech with the disclaimer that his views may not represent the views of Paramount.

Mandato predicts the number of hardware units in homes by the end of 2007 will be at 1.7 million for each format. On the HD DVD side, that includes 1.2 million stand-alone players and 500,000 Xbox 360 add-on drives. For BD, Mandato is counting only 22%, or 1.2 million, of the 5.5 million PS3 units projected to be sold during the year, plus 500,000 stand-alone players, because his analysis suggests that just 22% of PS3 households purchase movies regularly.

Industry sources say both BD and HD DVD stand-alone player sales were about equal in February. BD stand-alone sales were miniscule compared to sales of the PS3, which one source said surpassed 150,000 units during the month.

Sales are likely to grow slowly until consumers have a better understanding of what high-definition DVD and the two separate formats are, said Russ Crupnick, NPD Group VP-senior industry analyst of entertainment.

A recent NPD survey showed 83% of DVD buyers said they had bought HD DVD titles, and 69% said they had bought BD titles. NPD determined that most had actually bought neither, based on the fact that the titles they reported purchasing were not released in either format.

“So in consumer’s minds, next-generation is closing in on a 2% share of all DVD sales,” said Crupnick. “But in fact, [HD DVD and BD sales] are less than 0.5%.”

Crupnick added that there is stiffening competition for BD and HD DVD as other media forms gain steam. Currently, iTunes’ TV and movie digital sales are 10 times the size of high-def title sales.

Fewer than 10% of DVD buyers said they intend to buy HD DVD or BD in the next six months, when accounting for both HDTV owners and non-owners.

“Research, not speculation, shows that consumers are wildly confused,” said Crupnick. “We need to clarify and educate in order to get that purchase intent from 10% to over 50%.”

Well the good news is that the Stand Alone player sales are sreally starting to rise and I think those are the people that will really start to buy alot of movies for the formats. Overall some pretty good news for HD in general.

Yesterday the Blu-Ray sheep were barking loud about it's over for HD DVD based on this guy's comment and he worked for Paramount. FUD! FUD! FUD! Isn't that the famous Blu-Ray quote?


As I said all along COST is the main factor why Blu-Ray won't be accepted by the mass public until we see those $299 Blu-Ray players.

As far as PS3 as a Blu-Ray player GAMERS will always buy games first. I think they are right about the attach rate for PS3. There aren't that many good games for PS3 right now but when more games come out buying games would be priority for GAMERS. I'm not talking about early adopters who bought a PS3 as a cheap Blu-Ray player.

Desperation by Blu-Ray early adopters to twist things.


I'm going to enjoy coming on these boards in July and Jan 2008.

[ww1seman]

Originally Posted by tranzparentl

Well thats just what the article says not me.

I think this article is a lot closer to the truth than Paramount's Advisor who said the war will be over in 3 months. That's laughable.

Every day that goes by and another person buys an HD DVD player and another movie gets released helps ensure the format stays around that much longer.

I'm VERY confident that both formats will live much longer than anybody (especially fanbois) would like to hear. There are certain economical circumstances that will ensure that mandatory.

[rmslives]

[quote=HD-DED;73927]

The 22% number is just as much made up as anything else. If such a mentality is true, and Blu-ray is selling 100% more than HD DVD it will either mean that Blu-ray has an attach rate that is 100% more (not likely) or that far more PS3 units are being used for Blu-ray playback (very likely). I think realistically, 70% or more of PS3 console owners will buy a BD... But I add to this: I believe that PS3 Blu-ray attach rates will be FAR lower than stand alone player attach rates. An average PS3 owner may only buy 2 or 3 titles by the end of the year. The average BD stand alone owner may buy 15 titles or more. But, those are numbers I'm GUESSING at, and I'm just using as example.

[quote]


This is not directed at you, but I have to quote you: yesterday this forum lit up with "The war is over" posts because a Paramount rep - an insider - made comments about the war possibly ending.


Suddenly, though, this same rep who got all the BD die hards excited yesterday is not credible and is just making things up. He's got more access to numbers than we do, so I'm going to consider his guess fairly educated.

Even when I do pick up my Blu-Ray player, I have to say my heart will be a bit more partial to HD, because it is frustrating to hear some of the BD die hards take one man's word as gospel one day, then discredit him the next because he is not saying what they want.

And yes, there are plenty of HD faithful who do the same - but in my experiences, not as many. MY EXPERIENCES.

[moepain4u]

But according to Sony and Fox the war is over


Like I said yesterday Toshiba and Microsoft have been quiet and not making dumb arse comments like BDA members.


Toshiba standalones are even with all those companies making standalone BD players! You think cost has anything to do with it??

[moepain4u]

[quote=rmslives;73959][quote=HD-DED;73927]

The 22% number is just as much made up as anything else. If such a mentality is true, and Blu-ray is selling 100% more than HD DVD it will either mean that Blu-ray has an attach rate that is 100% more (not likely) or that far more PS3 units are being used for Blu-ray playback (very likely). I think realistically, 70% or more of PS3 console owners will buy a BD... But I add to this: I believe that PS3 Blu-ray attach rates will be FAR lower than stand alone player attach rates. An average PS3 owner may only buy 2 or 3 titles by the end of the year. The average BD stand alone owner may buy 15 titles or more. But, those are numbers I'm GUESSING at, and I'm just using as example.

This is not directed at you, but I have to quote you: yesterday this forum lit up with "The war is over" posts because a Paramount rep - an insider - made comments about the war possibly ending.


Suddenly, though, this same rep who got all the BD die hards excited yesterday is not credible and is just making things up. He's got more access to numbers than we do, so I'm going to consider his guess fairly educated.

Even when I do pick up my Blu-Ray player, I have to say my heart will be a bit more partial to HD, because it is frustrating to hear some of the BD die hards take one man's word as gospel one day, then discredit him the next because he is not saying what they want.

And yes, there are plenty of HD faithful who do the same - but in my experiences, not as many. MY EXPERIENCES.