NPD survey: HD DVD purchase intention continues to beat BD

[DueNorth]

Some HD-DVD supporters intend to live in the real world but for now they live in land of intentions.

[hidefimports]

Market research gauge interests by what consumers intend to buy.

If you blu-ray fanboys don't care about market research, don't post on this thread.

[JA410]

"NPD’s sample includes about 6,000 regular DVD buyers, starting at age 13"

They surveyed 13-year olds about which high-def disc player they intended to buy? I know kids today are spoiled but how many of 'em have 50" plasma TVs?

[theflux]

Market research gauge interests by what consumers intend to buy.

If you blu-ray fanboys don't care about market research, don't post on this thread.

I intend to stop posting in this thread, but like a lot of those people polled for HD DVD, I don't think I'll follow through with that intent. Kind of makes that poll and this thread worthless, doesn't it?

Instead, I'll actually post in this thread, just like the majority of people actually buy Blu-ray products.

[dshlvrsn]

Market research gauge interests by what consumers intend to buy.

If you blu-ray fanboys don't care about market research, don't post on this thread.

I care...

Two things:

1) “I think that the trend is more important than the absolute level,” said Crupnick. BD intent “is low, but trending up. And certainly these past two weeks are higher than any week we’ve seen dating all the way back to October.”

2) The article never mentions how far behind Blu-ray is. We know it went from 6.3 "late last year" to 8.1 on January 16th. No consistency in how the info is reported. Was HD-DVD 8.15, 30? When was late last year? December 31st?

Maybe I care TOO much?

[gluasad]

I care...

Two things:

1) “I think that the trend is more important than the absolute level,” said Crupnick. BD intent “is low, but trending up. And certainly these past two weeks are higher than any week we’ve seen dating all the way back to October.”

2) The article never mentions how far behind Blu-ray is. We know it went from 6.3 "late last year" to 8.1 on January 16th. No consistency in how the info is reported. Was HD-DVD 8.15, 30? When was late last year? December 31st?

Maybe I care TOO much?

Question.

If this trend is important is it because it paints blu-ray in a good light or do you feel all trends are important?

The reason I ask is there has been a trend with the last couple of Neilson's showing that HD DVD is beginning to regain some of the ground lost after the Warner announcement. Now, is that an important trend or is it unimportant, since, afterall, it is positive news for HD DVD?

[garak]

Market research gauge interests by what consumers intend to buy.

If you blu-ray fanboys don't care about market research, don't post on this thread.

I intend to buy a Ferrari, Gulfstream V, an island in the Bahamas, and just for kicks an HD DVD player.

Intent is not a good indicator of sales. That's why the market research quoted above is not that important.

[Sus Ano]

Market research gauge interests by what consumers intend to buy.

If you blu-ray fanboys don't care about market research, don't post on this thread.

You still have not addressed the key point though. Empirically speaking the market research in this case is wrong.

HD-DVD purchase intention has been high for over a year.
HD-DVD actual sales (both software and hardware) has been low for over a year.

I suppose we could talk about why their market research might be wrong. Or maybe how inaccurate market research might have influenced Toshiba's many many poor business decisions.

But you have to admit that whoever NPD has been surveying are NOT showing up to actually buy HD-DVD.

[hidefimports]

As I mentioned before, the market research was to gauge interest, not predict sales numbers.

It is not wrong. There is no wrong. It's a survey of people's interest. However, the survey could be flawed.

Interest does not translate to sales because interest is not the only factor. There are other factors such as brand recognition, price, and movie content.

[garak]

Market research gauge interests by what consumers intend to buy.

As I mentioned before, the market research was to gauge interest, not predict sales numbers.

Perhaps you chose your words poorly, but you've contradicted yourself.

Gauging what consumers intend to buy IS trying to predict sales.

Besides, what business would conduct a survey trying to determine a consumer's interest, but not what a consumer would purchase.

[cooper1010]

hmmm, "intent to buy" has always been higher since they started taking these surveys in october, right around the time blu-ray players started outselling hd dvd players...shows you what these "intent to buy" surveys know.

[stockstar1138]

there is so many questions you have to ask with a survey like this.

I mean how many people put HD DVD thinking upconversion, not the HD DVD format in specific.

How many people have no clue what they are talking about and just put HD DVD because they have an HDTV and a DVD player and think its natural progression.

I guarentee if you went out on the street and surveyed people and said do you have an HD DVD player at least 5-10% of people would say they do, when really only .3% of the US population has one at best. So many people get HD DVD and HD-upconversion confused.

[hidefimports]

Perhaps you chose your words poorly, but you've contradicted yourself.

Gauging what consumers intend to buy IS trying to predict sales.

Besides, what business would conduct a survey trying to determine a consumer's interest, but not what a consumer would purchase.

You are saying that NPD sucks in predicting sales?

All NPD does with the survey is gauge interest. How the survey is use is up to the retailer, manufacturers, and marketers.

If the survey shows there are more interest in HDDVD, the retailer might offer more shelfspace for HDDVD and marketers might promote HDDVD more. It is obviously up to the retailers and marketers whether they want to promote HDDVD or Blu-ray more.

I use market research all the time. It doesn't help my predict sales; it helps me figure out how to market the products because it gives me an idea what consumers are interested in.

[garak]

You are saying that NPD sucks in predicting sales?

All NPD does with the survey is gauge interest. How the survey is use is up to the retailer, manufacturers, and marketers.

If the survey shows there are more interest in HDDVD, the retailer might offer more shelfspace for HDDVD and marketers might promote HDDVD more. It is obviously up to the retailers and marketers whether they want to promote HDDVD or Blu-ray more.

I use market research all the time. It doesn't help my predict sales; it helps me figure out how to market the products because it gives me an idea what consumers are interested in.

Trying to twist my words? That will not help you here.

In this case, BD vs HD DVD, that NPD survey has had no correlation to actual sales.

So in this case, if you were a retailer, would you use the NPD survey or actual sales to decide what you would stock?

[Sus Ano]

As I mentioned before, the market research was to gauge interest, not predict sales numbers.

It is not wrong. There is no wrong. It's a survey of people's interest. However, the survey could be flawed.

Interest does not translate to sales because interest is not the only factor. There are other factors such as brand recognition, price, and movie content.

If you want to say their survey is "flawed" instead of "wrong" thats fine with me.

I will point out though that any company that based any of their decisions on this data was screwed. You are quite correct that many factors effect purchase decisions. Indeed basic behavioral economics has demonstrated over and over that what people think they will do is often different from what they actually do.

But there should be SOME connection between interest and purchase decisions. For whatever reason NPD's market research could not even get a sample that correctly answered the basic question of which group was going to be bigger - HD-DVD owners or Blu-ray owners.

I wonder if this is the same sample that was behind NPD's early 07 research that argued almost no PS3 owners bought blu-ray or even knew the PS3 could play them. I still remember the analyst's comments that were something like it confirmed what she thought that console buyers had no interest in movies and the PS3 would not be a factor in the format war.