The reality of the HD format war

[dvdman]

Below is an excerpt from a Video Business article today concerning the HD format war. As I've said many times before a majority of consumers really aren't interested in the HD disc and the format war. I'm not sure where Warner and Sony were getting their information from thinking that once Warner committed to the Blu-ray camp all of the sudden folks were going to flock and buy their players. Lets face boys it aint happening.


http://www.videobusiness.com/article....html?nid=2705

Rubin noted that consumers continue to overwhelmingly choose upconverting standard-def DVD players over more expensive Blu-ray or HD DVD set-tops. Collectively, high-def set-tops, including dual-format models, encompass less than 10% of overall DVD player sales.

[A_Gorilla]

Yet another another "HDM doesnt matter, so its ok that HD DVD lost" thread by a another sad Red. Nothing to see here folks.

[whitefangv]

I think this is what gives HD DVD the edge. With their players being priced around the same as high end upconverters thats kind of like a Trojan horse.

[kowhite]

I think this is what gives HD DVD the edge. With their players being priced around the same as high end upconverters thats kind of like a Trojan horse.

Now those players actually have to become top sellers in the upconvert market.

That...seems unlikely.

[snp]

Trouble is 'high end upconverters' are themselves probably a different market to standard or budget upconverters. If someone's willing to spend extra for a brand, or perceived better quality product, Toshiba has the problem of them spending 'just a bit more' again for the product - from a range of CE's - that also has the majority support on high def proper, should anything there at some point in the future - if not now - tempt them.

I think they do have a little bit of a 'price gap' advantage (albiet a costly artificial one) but as soon as some BD players hit the street in the 200-275 range, i think they'll be in trouble, even using this angle. I'm not sure that there is a huge 'middle' market between regular upconverters (for third/half HD DVD's cut price) and that level price majority supported Bluray, once it comes in properly.

[dvdman]

Yet another another "HDM doesnt matter, so its ok that HD DVD lost" thread by a another sad Red. Nothing to see here folks.

The numbers don't lie and by the way I'm a dual format supporter so I have a lot to lose if one or both HD formats don't succeed. I'm also a realist and the numbers speak for themselves.

[kururo]

The numbers don't lie and by the way I'm a dual format supporter so I have a lot to lose if one or both HD formats don't succeed. I'm also a realist and the numbers speak for themselves.

and every week/month hdm takes a bit more of the dvd market share.

[dvdman]

Trouble is 'high end upconverters' are themselves probably a different market to standard or budget upconverters. If someone's willing to spend extra for a brand, or perceived better quality product, Toshiba has the problem of them spending 'just a bit more' again for the product - from a range of CE's - that also has the majority support on high def proper, should anything there at some point in the future - if not now - tempt them.

I think they do have a little bit of a 'price gap' advantage (albiet a costly artificial one) but as soon as some BD players hit the street in the 200-275 range, i think they'll be in trouble, even using this angle. I'm not sure that there is a huge 'middle' market between regular upconverters (for third/half HD DVD's cut price) and that level price majority supported Bluray, once it comes in properly.

Bottom line: Blu-ray players $350 and up, movies $25 and up.
HD-DVD players $150 and up, movies $25 and up.
Upscaling DVD players $40 and up, movies $5.00 and up

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out which one consumers will
choose right now. You can try to spin any way you want but it is what it is. I have a $40 upscaling Philips dvd player that puts out an OUTSTANDING upscaled picture via HDMI need I say more?

[dvdman]

and every week/month hdm takes a bit more of the dvd market share.

Actually the market share has been pretty much the same since last Fall and through the all important Holiday season for both HD formats combined. They really didn't gain much ground.

[ivan872007]

Bottom line: Blu-ray players $350 and up, movies $25 and up.
HD-DVD players $150 and up, movies $25 and up.
Upscaling DVD players $40 and up, movies $5.00 and up

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out which one consumers will
choose right now. You can try to spin any way you want but it is what it is. I have a $40 upscaling Philips dvd player that puts out an OUTSTANDING upscaled picture via HDMI need I say more?

dude this is the blu-ray vs hd-dvd smackdown. not blu-ray vs hd-dvd vs upconverting dvd players. besides back when dvd was starting people could argue that vhs was selling more. this thread should be locked.

[Micker]

This happens to all technology, it gets replaced, need it or not. HDM will replace dvds. The price of HD players will eventually be so low, that it would be crazy to buy a SD DVD player. Studios will stop producing SD DVDs eventually also, just like VHS. Who is going to buy the SD version of a movie when the HD version costs the same or just a tad more?? Blu-ray will replace dvd, its a matter of when. The studios want to sell all their movies to us again in High DEf, trust me, they will make sure HDM survives.

Look at computers. Most people would be fine with a Pentium 3 still, but they can't buy one. Do they need Windows XP?? Windows 98 is more then plenty for people who just surf the net or use Word, but you can't buy it anymore. Technology gets pushed on us, need it or not.

[kururo]

You seem to forget that these formats are fairly new. Prices don't just go down because you want them to. A good business considers costs when it comes to research and development, production, and marketing. As time goes by production costs come down, and prices will subsequently come down as well. dvd player prices were not less than 300$ for a number of years.

[Wulf]

dude this is the blu-ray vs hd-dvd smackdown. not blu-ray vs hd-dvd vs upconverting dvd players. besides back when dvd was starting people could argue that vhs was selling more. this thread should be locked.

Yep, that's the way to get others to try your format. Lock'em out that'll win em every time! I happen to agree with him on this post so, you wanta lock me out too? Remember we're apart of your wildly high 6% ratio and you might want to keep us in the group for that reason! Remember you need us, we don't need you. Might want to remember that the next time you think about posting a statement like the one above.

[dvdman]

This happens to all technology, it gets replaced, need it or not. HDM will replace dvds. The price of HD players will eventually be so low, that it would be crazy to buy a SD DVD player. Studios will stop producing SD DVDs eventually also, just like VHS. Who is going to buy the SD version of a movie when the HD version costs the same or just a tad more?? Blu-ray will replace dvd, its a matter of when. The studios want to sell all their movies to us again in High DEf, trust me, they will make sure HDM survives.

Look at computers. Most people would be fine with a Pentium 3 still, but they can't buy one. Do they need Windows XP?? Windows 98 is more then plenty for people who just surf the net or use Word, but you can't buy it anymore. Technology gets pushed on us, need it or not.

Way before everything you just said happens there will be softwareless
movies to compete with HD dvd and that is something standard dvd did
not have to deal with during it's first 10 years. It will remain a niche format for a long time. It's just hard to keep on selling the same car (movies) with just a more hyped (HD disc) up engine when the "Average Joes" are tickled pink with the one they got already. Now this will all be a mute point if and when HD players go down to $30 each and movies are $5 each. The sooner this happens the better the chances for HD disc mainstream adoption. I just don't see that happening anytime soon.

[kururo]

Way before everything you just said happens there will be softwareless
movies to compete with HD dvd and that is something standard dvd did
not have to deal with during it's first 10 years. It will remain a niche format for a long time. It's just hard to keep on selling the same car (movies) with just a more hyped (HD disc) up engine when the "Average Joes" are tickled pink with the one they got already. Now this will all be a mute point if and when HD players go down to $30 each and movies are $5 each. The sooner this happens the better the chances for HD disc mainstream adoption. I just don't see that happening anytime soon.

again, dvd players weren't 30$ and dvd movies 5$ 2-3 years after release either.