Blu-ray tips scales, now ahead of HD DVD, permanently?

[dobyblue]

http://www.videostoremag.com/news/ht...ticle_id=10323

100 units to 98.71 units for software in Blu Rays favour
Coming up exclusives:
Casino Royale (Sony)
From Hell (Fox)
Hoosiers (MGM)
Layer Cake (Sony)
Mr. & Mrs. Smith (Fox)
Big Fish (Sony)
Chicken Little (Buena Vista)
Eragon (Fox)
Finding Neverland (Buena Vista)
The Holiday (2006) (Sony)
Rocky Balboa (Sony)


What will these numbers look like by this holiday season?

The scales tipped in favor of Blu-ray Disc the week ended Feb. 18, according to preliminary data.

Since the inception of both formats, the Sony-backed Blu-ray disc has now sold more units than its Toshiba-backed HD DVD competitor, according to Nielsen VideoScan First Alert data.

Buoyed by a rush of titles this year, Blu-ray has racked up a slight lead in unit sales — 100 units to every 98.71 units of HD DVD — since the inception of both formats, according to First Alert data.

HD DVD had a headstart on Blu-ray sales because of its earlier launch. However, in late December, following the Nov. 17 launch of Sony’s Blu-ray-enabled PlayStation 3, the Blu-ray Disc began to catch up in unit sales, according to Nielsen VideoScan data.

Blu-ray has the advantage of more major studio support. All of the majors, save Universal Studios Home Entertainment, support the format. Buena Vista Home Entertainment, 20th Century Fox Home Entertainment, Lionsgate and Sony Pictures Home Entertainment exclusively support Blu-ray.

Ken Graffeo, the executive in charge of the HD DVD effort for Universal Studios Home Entertainment, said, “Given that the life-to-date title sales ratios are close to 1:1, and given that Blu-ray has a 5:1 ratio right now on the hardware side due to the PS3, why aren’t Blu-ray software sales outpacing HD DVD by a similar ratio?

“In fact, HD DVD players continue to have an attach rate (life to date) that is more than five times that of Blu-ray players.”

Graffeo added Blu-ray has simply released more titles. Indeed, industry newsletter The DVD Release Report shows that, in 2006, there were 129 Blu-ray titles released to HD DVD’s 140. However, so far this year, through Feb. 16, the Blu-ray suppliers have released almost double the number of HD DVD titles. There have been 35 Blu-ray releases to 19 for HD DVD, many of which have been HD DVD/DVD combo discs.

Blu-ray backers have long listed studio support as a major advantage in the format war. At this year’s Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, supporters predicted the format would take the lead in unit sales this year, and Buena Vista Home Entertainment president Bob Chapek announced, “Game over.”

The confidence hasn’t wavered.

“We see that the consumer is voting with their dollars with a clear preference for Blu-ray,” Chapek said. “This clear, objective measure shows the writing is on the wall.”

“Seeing HD DVD in our rear-view mirror is no surprise to us,” added David Bishop, worldwide home entertainment president, Sony Pictures Home Entertainment. “Blu-ray’s success is something that we have predicted since we first started promoting the new format. It has always been Sony’s position that there would be an inevitable migration from HD DVD to Blu-ray because of several factors, including the technical superiority of Blu-ray, the successful launch of PlayStation 3, the growing availability of BD playback machines and BD-enabled computers from the best consumer electronic brands in the world, as well as the growing number of hit titles being made available on the BD format.”

“As we noted at CES, the format war is in its final phase,” said Steven Feldstein, SVP of marketing communications at 20th Century Fox Home Entertainment. “It’s never been a question of if Blu-ray will pass HD DVD, but a matter of when.”

Meanwhile, an executive for Warner Home Video, which supports both Blu-ray and HD DVD, noted both formats were still in play.

“We’re not in this for winning or losing,” said Steve Nickerson, SVP of market management for Warner Home Video. “Both formats are selling well on software.”

[wingnut]

Ken Graffeo, the executive in charge of the HD DVD effort for Universal Studios Home Entertainment, said, “Given that the life-to-date title sales ratios are close to 1:1, and given that Blu-ray has a 5:1 ratio right now on the hardware side due to the PS3, why aren’t Blu-ray software sales outpacing HD DVD by a similar ratio?

“In fact, HD DVD players continue to have an attach rate (life to date) that is more than five times that of Blu-ray players.”

He sounds like me.

I can't wait for one of Glocks colorful analogies to help explain this quote to me.

Yesterday it was elves, I hope it's ninjas this time.

[hstewarth]

2007 sure looks the year of Blu-ray. Its off to a good start especially that almost only 2 month through. Now is the time start getting more titles and nailing the HD DVD coffen in place.

[Aodh]

HD DVD is messing up in terms of releasing titles just as bad as Blu-ray messed up last year with all the delays. IMO HD DVD still has a lot going for it, but nothing will happen unless titles start being pushed.

[rick240]

Originally Posted by dobyblue

100 units to 98.71 units for software in Blu Rays favour

Originally Posted by dobyblue

What will these numbers look like by this holiday season?

Likely a much bigger spread, but with actual units sold numbers for both formats being much bigger than today.

The point in the HD DVD survival and format co-existence argument is not dominance over Blu-ray but a growing market that can't be ignored by exclusive studios.

Originally Posted by wingnut

“In fact, HD DVD players continue to have an attach rate (life to date) that is more than five times that of Blu-ray players.”[/i]

He sounds like me.

Unless this trend changes Blu-ray will be dominant but not the eliminator of HD DVD, there will be co-existence.

[Thulium]

The author is tossing in some pretty odd numbers here. Claiming that HD DVD's "life to date attach rate" is more than 5 times that of Blu-ray? That seems a little silly considering that HD DVD's life cycle is nearly twice as long as Blu-ray's. In the 3 months since the launch of the PS3, Blu-ray has sold more than twice what HD-DVD sold in the previous 7 months of the lifecycle.

[Dr_Gonzo]

Thulium, you know that Blu-rau was launched before the PS3 - right?

[Fozziwig]

Originally Posted by dobyblue

http://www.videostoremag.com/news/ht...ticle_id=10323

100 units to 98.71 units for software in Blu Rays favour
Coming up exclusives:
Casino Royale (Sony)
From Hell (Fox)
Hoosiers (MGM)
Layer Cake (Sony)
Mr. & Mrs. Smith (Fox)
Big Fish (Sony)
Chicken Little (Buena Vista)
Eragon (Fox)
Finding Neverland (Buena Vista)
The Holiday (2006) (Sony)
Rocky Balboa (Sony)


What will these numbers look like by this holiday season?

I'm guessing that last bit is rhetorical. However....I would be surprised and amazed if the number isn't something like...

100:20

[Philnerd]

The arrogance of the Fox and Disney dudes just takes me back to the Divx days every time I read a quote from them.

Screw 'em, I'm gonna go order the Black Rain HD DVD right now. Vote with our dollars indeed.

[30GB IS ENUF]

It's bs spin. He's saying that every person who bought a PS3 should be buying BDs at the same rate as people who have bought standalones.

[AV_Integrated]

Originally Posted by Dr_Gonzo

Thulium, you know that Blu-rau was launched before the PS3 - right?

I'm sure he does, but it should be noted that sales of Blu-ray players that amount to that 5:1 player lead was fueled almost entirely by PS3.

As well, in the few short months since PS3 release we have seen a 1:3 sales disadvantage turn into (about) a 2:1 sales advantage.

Keep in mind, that until just a couple of weeks ago, HD DVD had MORE movies available overall.

It isn't that HD DVD is a bad format, it just lacks the same thing it has lacked all along: Industry support and studio support. Unless those two things change, the direction of the format war is not going to change either.

[Thulium]

Originally Posted by Dr_Gonzo

Thulium, you know that Blu-rau was launched before the PS3 - right?

Yes, but the author is talking about the 5:1 player lead and that didn't happen until November 17. To say that the life-to-date attach rate of HD DVD is 5x that of Blu-ray would only be true if they have the same length of life. He's comparing Blu-berries to Raspberries here.

[Philnerd]

Originally Posted by Fozziwig

I'm guessing that last bit is rhetorical. However....I would be surprised and amazed if the number isn't something like...

100:20

Uh.. if BD were the uber dominating format that its backers claim, sales would already be 5:1 (or 100:20 if that's your preference).

[Ramenator]

Blu-ray has racked up a slight lead in unit sales — 100 units to every 98.71 units of HD DVD

A 1.29% lead doesn't sound like much of a blow out to me. If anything, this tells me that despite blu-ray's larger release schedule, the race is still very tight, and it's way too early to declare a winner. It reafirms my opinion that FOX and Sony were full of bull by jumping the gun and proclaiming a clear victory by March. Within the week, March will have arrived, and they will be proven wrong. They made false proclamations to try and convince people their compeditor was obsolete, FUD if ever their was any. They are still trying to spew it. While it has little effect on the educated consumer, it's getting annoying.

[Thulium]

Originally Posted by Philnerd

Uh.. if BD were the uber dominating format that its backers claim, sales would already be 5:1 (or 100:20 if that's your preference).

No it wouldn't. Sales would be 2:1 and growing. Sony is predicting that they'll be to 3.5:1 by the end of March. Keep in mind that the number of players is going up each day, and the unit sales will follow. If PS3 owners were buying movies at the same rate as standalone owners, then we could expect a 5:1 sales ratio by the end of the year...but not now. Keep in mind that if someone who buys 28 movies a year has had their player for 9 months, we would expect that person to have purchased 21 movies by now...but one of the 231,000 people who bought a PS3 last month would only have 2 movies if he/she was buying at the same rate.

Considering that the PS3 effect took 3 months to catch up to 7 months of HD DVD lead, it actually means that the attach rate for Blu-ray is currently about half of HD DVD's...multiplied by a 5:1 player ratio and you get...a 2.5:1 sales ratio!