HD DVD vs. Blu: 30-day Disc Sales Trend on Amazon

[quantum]

BTW, I understand the anger in your message. If I was Blu only, I'd be pissed about the trend too!

He can always go relax at br.com. There's no upsetting news for BDA fans there. "Need that glass of blu koolaid topped off son?"

[Sparrow]

I was looking at the various graphs comparing disc sales on Amazon and I noticed a pattern, or trend, particularly over the last 30 days.

Below is a graph of the Top 50 HD DVD Disc Titles vs. the Top 50 Blu-ray Disc Titles. The solid lines were generated by the graphing software. I added the doted lines by simply connecting the spot for each format on the left side of the graph to the spot for each format on the right side of the graph. The doted lines show the overall sales trend over the last 30 days for those Top 50/50 Titles.



Despite the large positive spike for Blu-ray and negative spike for HD DVD starting around November 10, you can clearly see the following:

1) The overall 30-day trend for HD DVD has been one of rapid increase!!
2) The overall 30-day trend for Blu-ray has been flat as a pancake with slight decline.

Now, a quick tick upward in Blu or quick tick downward in HD DVD would obviously affect the slant of either trend line. But I think this 30-day snapshot tells a pretty amazing story considering HD DVD has been declared "dead" by Sony more than one time!

It will be interesting to see what the next few weeks bring!

Mark

learn to do math, and intepret trends, a short term massive spike due to a big sale will skew data over such a short time period.

seriously do you do anything but come up with useless fanboy crap?

[Rob.D.inToronto]

Which will come first: the magic million sales mark (excluding sale priced/BOGO items) or the magic $99 player (excluding sale priced items)?

99 buck players will be an enabler for the 1 million disc sale. That or some iconic must have film is released on a format and everybody buys it.

Or Universal ships a twin disc and drops DVD releases, but that would be a cheat.

[Rob.D.inToronto]

As others have pointed out, Amazon is just a fraction of the overall HDM market. To get better trending data you should use the Nielsen numbers as they capture sales across many more retailers and the number 1 selling retailer for HDMl, Best Buy.

Actually reports have shown amazon can be upto 20% of the HDM market, that isn't a fraction in the standard taxonomy.

[bazie]

lol. Just so you know, when excel, graphical analysis or any other graphing program tries to fit a straight line to a set of points I can assure you they don't just line up the high points:haha:

[Rob71]

He can always go relax at br.com. There's no upsetting news for BDA fans there. "Need that glass of blu koolaid topped off son?"

Well, to be perfectly honest, I've not seen any upsetting news here either.

[Taffy]

Because speaking for myself, even though I have access to both I want one winner and I want one winner soon for the good of high def media in general.

I totally agree with the above sentiment but prefer the format to be HD-DVD as it has a more realistic shot of being accepted by the general public.

[Hunting Wabbits]

Below is a graph of the Top 50 HD DVD Disc Titles vs. the Top 50 Blu-ray Disc Titles. The solid lines were generated by the graphing software. I added the doted lines by simply connecting the spot for each format on the left side of the graph to the spot for each format on the right side of the graph. The doted lines show the overall sales trend over the last 30 days for those Top 50/50 Titles.

Not interested in playing connect the dots. Come back when you've read and understand some math...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linear_regression

[BrutalDeluxe]

Not interested in playing connect the dots. Come back when you've read and understand some math...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linear_regression

I think that even without linear regression applied it's easy enough to see which way the trend is going, is it not?

[quantum]

I think that even without linear regression applied it's easy enough to see which way the trend is going, is it not?

Of course it is, which is why BDA fanboys are focusing on minutia, suggesting the line is not in the mathematically correct spot, thus we are supposed to ignore the obviousness of the entire chart.

[Hunting Wabbits]

I think that even without linear regression applied it's easy enough to see which way the trend is going, is it not?

When you had a downturn the size of Texas in the line? The entire area of the curve above 1000 can fit in that trough with room to spare. I'm not sure it will would be linear at this time of year anyway.. Not that I would try to pretend a ranking is actually representative of sales. Heck the more recent data might be more accurate the old data, as it is liable to be at a higher volume of sales.

Sure lets just draw peak to peak and pretend our favorite format is winning.

[Hunting Wabbits]

Of course it is, which is why BDA fanboys are focusing on minutia, suggesting the line is not in the mathematically correct spot, thus we are supposed to ignore the obviousness of the entire chart.

God yeah.. Stupid fanboi, suggesting we use actual math.

[Rob71]

Of course it is, which is why BDA fanboys are focusing on minutia, suggesting the line is not in the mathematically correct spot, thus we are supposed to ignore the obviousness of the entire chart.

No, us "fanboys" focus on Neilsen, not an individual retailer.

[Wayne]

The entire set of statistics at Amazon.com has had and continues to have BD as the leader. In the nine areas they identify in the 'Products War' section, HD-DVD leads in three, BE in five and one is tied. Since September, HD-DVD has never led in a majority of the categories and most of the time has lost in every one of them! Just as HD-DVD has lost the sales contest in every week this year, so it will continue to lose. A loser is a loser.

[quantum]

Clearly none of the BDA fanbois have a thing for that chart, other than to suggest the line isn't drawn where they like (who cares?), or that Blu-ray won in previous months. Guess what? Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Get over it Blu-boys. Keep burying your heads in the sand if it makes you feel better.