Screen Digest predicts more studios will go neutral

[timbobarry]

Copied from http://www.screendigest.com/press/re...2007/view.html

The latest research released today by media analysts Screen Digest (www.screendigest.com), examines the evolution of the high-definition video market. The research includes detailed forecasts to 2011 for consumer sales and revenues of both new video formats for W Europe and the US. Screen Digest believes that whilst Blu-ray Disc (BD) is selling more units than rival HD DVD at the moment, in the longer term both formats will establish a viable installed base, allowing them to co-exist for the foreseeable future.

As a result, Screen Digest has calculated that those Hollywood studios that opt to support a single format only could be missing out on significant revenues, potentially eschewing over $270m of consumer spending in 2008 alone. Blu-ray-exclusive studios Sony, Fox and Disney could miss out on $175m in consumer spending by not publishing their films on HD DVD, although Blu-ray's stronger sales mean that HD DVD-only supporters are at risk of making the largest individual losses. With so much at stake, Screen Digest expects several single-format studios to reassess their positions during 2008.

The recent announcement that Paramount – hitherto a format agnostic studio – and DreamWorks will support HD DVD exclusively might at first seem to undermine this prediction. However Screen Digest believes that the decision by Paramount to 'get off the fence' over hi-def actually makes it more likely that other studios will now move to a format agnostic position. The decision has effectively secured HD DVD's immediate future, and cleared the way for the other studios that currently support one platform only to move to an agnostic position without being the studio solely responsible for prolonging a format war, or for killing off one of the formats.

Christmas 2007 will be critical
Richard Cooper, Screen Digest Video Analyst, says "Christmas 2007 is going to be critical for the hi-def video business. Both formats will be seeking to secure consumer buy-in to their proposition during the critical holiday season but with so much at stake on both sides we think it is highly unlikely that one format will emerge as the 'winner'. Once it becomes clear that both formats are gaining customer acceptance, studios that have chosen to support one format over the other will realize that they are missing out on potential sales and will have to decide how long they can afford to place principle over profit. We believe that eventually most will decide to offer their titles on both HD DVD and BD in order to maximise their returns."

Hardware holds the key
A crucial factor in how the high definition market will evolve is the level of hardware support available to each format. Both formats benefit from a growing range of
standalone video disc players, at ever-lower prices. However, Blu-ray currently enjoys a significant advantage over HD DVD because it can also be played on
Sony's PlayStation 3 games console. To date, PS3 sales have exceeded total standalone player sales (irrespective of format) by a ratio of six to one. Although
Screen Digest's research shows that each PS3 household buys far fewer movie discs than each standalone household, their sheer numbers provide serious
buying power.

Screen Digest has developed a detailed forecasting model analysing the key factors that will influence sales of HD DVD and Blu-ray hardware and software in the US and Europe over the next few years. The charts above show the anticipated split of software sales between the two formats from 2006 to 2011. Whilst Blu-ray is currently outselling HD DVD on both sides of the Atlantic, Screen Digest expects the situation to even out as hi-def hardware becomes more affordable and more titles become available on both formats. Cooper concludes "Both formats will be adopted, but slower than some in the industry was expecting. There will be no outright winner in the short term."

I know some wont agree but I've always thought it will become like this. Both formats are here to stay.

[bxbailey]

Both formats is definately not a good thing, and purchashing both is probably the worst decision. The best thing for consumers is to either support one format or continue to purchase DVDs and let these companies work it out. The only thing buying both does is prolong the war.

[tranzparentl]

When will people realize there will be no "end" to this war except dual format players?

People have been calling for the "end" to the war for over a year now and probably will still be saying the same thing a year from now.

Video Games have 3 different formats and all are succeeding. (If you count PS3 as succeeding) With many games being released on multiple formats but a few games are exclusives.

Well why is it so hard to believe that movies will follow the same path? Too many companies have too much money on the line to just give up.

[Pimboli]

Originally Posted by bxbailey

Both formats is definately not a good thing, and purchashing both is probably the worst decision. The best thing for consumers is to either support one format or continue to purchase DVDs and let these companies work it out. The only thing buying both does is prolong the war.

I dont think that to keep purchasing DVD's and then having to replace even more of them is the way to go and most people on here would be format nutral anyway as most movie lovers would be looking to buy their favourte titles irrespective of whether they are Red or Blu. I think because of the prices of HD DVD standalones you will find that a lot of Blu only will go red due to the cost but not so much the other way.

At the end of the day if the studios go nutral everyone is going to have a dual player in a year or two and it wont matter which you chose.

Both formats are here for the long haul, the BDA are the only ones who cant see it.

[Kotatsu Neko]

I think without the Paramount and Dreamworks thing it could have possibly been all over in BD's favor by the middle of next year. Now though, all bets are off and I think BD's window of opportunity has passed.

The future looks dual format to me, with Samsung and LG placed better than anyone else to take advantage of it once they can lower their costs. I predict next year we'll see a flood of combo players hitting the market, which will surely drive prices down.

It's also worth repeating the obvious yet again - the game industry has supported multiple formats, with massive cost overheads in doing so, for decades. Dual video formats by comparison is total child's play.

[bxbailey]

So the logic originally was features and price, but now people are saying price is no longer an issue and would rather play more for a dual format player?

Technology is supposed to get smaller, be cheaper and sleeker and have more capacity in terms of hardware, and the idea that it's better to have either 2 devices for the same purpose or one device that costs more than twice that of 2 standalones doesn't sound like we're moving forward.

Would you prefer to have one toliet in your house for all bathroom needs or two in the same bathroom, but for different purposes?

On top of that since when has technology been about less is better?

Should dell start selling Pentium 2 celerons because they can be just as good as a P4 as long as you're continent with the performance now?

Should sports cars get smaller engines goine forward?

Should Hard Drvies start gettign smaller or would 80gb be enough for your computer?


The whole HD-DVD thing / dual player and 2 formats being good for the consumer or technology just doesn't make sense.

Although I'll say I can respect those that have chosen red or blue but those that just can't wait and have both I think have the most to lose in terms of consumers

[bxbailey]

Originally Posted by tranzparentl

When will people realize there will be no "end" to this war except dual format players?

People have been calling for the "end" to the war for over a year now and probably will still be saying the same thing a year from now.

Video Games have 3 different formats and all are succeeding. (If you count PS3 as succeeding) With many games being released on multiple formats but a few games are exclusives.

Well why is it so hard to believe that movies will follow the same path? Too many companies have too much money on the line to just give up.

I don't think Video Game Systems are a good analogy. There are software titles that will never be on another system and that's what makes owning all the systems make sense. If you only own a Microsoft Console, you'll never play Socom or God of War and if you only own a Playstation Console you'll never play Halo. So format doesn't come into pay there.

If you own HD-DVD or Blu-ray, down the road you may have to re-purchase a title if one format wins and you hardware is no longer in production/supported or your software titles have been re-released on the other format with the features that were lacking while they were on the other format.

Blu-ray owners would re-purchase their titles to gain the ihd features
HD-DVD owners would re-purchase their titles to gain HD audio without compromise

and so on and so on.

[Arkadin]

I've been saying this for weeks. so no surprise here. Both formats are definitely here to stay. so good news for all.

[Pimboli]

Originally Posted by bxbailey

I don't think Video Game Systems are a good analogy. There are software titles that will never be on another system and that's what makes owning all the systems make sense. If you only own a Microsoft Console, you'll never play Socom or God of War and if you only own a Playstation Console you'll never play Halo. So format doesn't come into pay there.

Blu-ray owners would re-purchase their titles to gain the ihd features
HD-DVD owners would re-purchase their titles to gain HD audio without compromise

and so on and so on.

Couple of points Gears of War is on the Xbox 360 so MS people can play it.

Secondly and most importantly I do not believe for a second that people who have already upgraded to HD media will re-buy a currently exclusive title on the other format if its released.

The like of the Matrix Trilogy, Heros, Hot Fuzz, Shaun of the Dead that I have upgraded to on HD DVD, thats it, I will not be paying for them again on Blu if they are released even if they have one extra track on them.

The same with Hellboy, Vertical Limit & the POTC movies on Blu, one upgrade thats it.

Im sure there are people out there that are pre-pared to double dip themselves of the same release on another format for an extra soundtrack but Id say they are the minority.

[corduroygt]

Well there are no long term reasons for any studio to remain HD DVD exclusive, but even if all studios go neutral, Sony won't, so they'll win the war anyways.

[Mark Booth]

Originally Posted by corduroygt

Well there are no long term reasons for any studio to remain HD DVD exclusive, but even if all studios go neutral, Sony won't, so they'll win the war anyways.

That sounds similar to what a friend of mine said about his beloved Beta machine. He believed Sony would never abandon Beta. When Sony made its first VHS recorder he finally changed his opinion.

Mark

[JAG1977]

Well if it's inevitable Universal and Paramount will go neutral I don't need to buy a HD-DVD player do I.

[Metsuke]

Originally Posted by Kotatsu Neko

It's also worth repeating the obvious yet again - the game industry has supported multiple formats, with massive cost overheads in doing so, for decades. Dual video formats by comparison is total child's play.

It's not obvious at all, especially if you understand economic principles.

Game consoles are products that are differentiated by features and price, like most consumer electronics. Brand A has this feature set and this price, Brand B has a different set and a higher/lower price. Both of these have a target market and both can co-exist.

Back to the games analogy, if any game could be simply programmed for any console, and the other features were identical, all but the cheapest would die out. But this is not nearly the case. The Wii has motion controls, PS3 has Blu-ray, 360 has the best video card. They each have a different set of software made for them, and each has its own value proposition.

As for HD media, HD DVD has a few short-term advantages, such as interactivity and player price. Going forward, however, HD DVD in its current iteration has nothing to offer that Blu-ray doesn't meet or exceed. If it cannot keep a meaningful price separation, it deserves to be extinct.

Blu-ray has all the natural advantages (studio support being an "unnatural" advantage) and, in a sane world, would be the eventual format winner here.

[mamec]

Originally Posted by timbobarry

Copied from http://www.screendigest.com/press/re...2007/view.html


I know some wont agree but I've always thought it will become like this. Both formats are here to stay.

Interesing, but how many number of players (both sides) must be sold to all studios being neutral?.

[duckie42]

what if all the companys that suport BD (went nutral the wernt HD only) & nutral HD BD went HD & the only company that was BD was sony & the rest of the companys were total HD & didnt continu pressing or restock BD (reisssuing titles on HD). & sony was the ONLY company that was blu-ray i think that they would have to go red then i think the colours of the boxes would be expanded for individual companys, to denote unrated movies or exstended editions, or just to make the box match the colour of the artwork. (the 2 extra DVD in the matrex ultamit box is in a black 2 dvd case)

to me if all the companys went BD all the boxes would be blue & stay blue. (to me having the same plane blue or red box would be boring) having a colour difference if there was 1 universal format would might catch some-1's eye when looking for a movie.

when i 1st saw the little red boxes of HD i thought cool the dvd's are coming out in smaller boxes then i realized it was a New format in the boxes (there was about 5 HD DVD scattered among the Standard DVD's) as the HD movies expanded so ithe space for the movies i only noticed BD about a month b4 i aquired my toshiba. which i prfered over a sony or ps3 (to me a PS3 is for the 13-25 year olds who want to play games on an expencive toy) gaming consols is for gamses NOT movies. & probably half the KIDS who play games on a ps3 have it hooked up to a 50+" plasma tv. which over time the immage of the game will be permantally burned onto the screen.