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  1. #1
    Sbert's Avatar
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    Default As expected, Xbox One will have a blu-ray drive....

    http://www.tomshardware.com/news/Mic...ecs,22682.html

    Both Sony and Microsoft have been trying to merg home entertainment into an all inclusive solution. For some reason, people had felt that the next gen console from microsoft would not have a blu-ray drive - which to be honest never made any sense to me.

    In any regard, to be an all inclusive solution - especially with about 50 percent of day-date releases being sold on BD, + >50% to core demographic gamers - microsoft could not afford to skip a blu-ray drive this generation.

    Slowly, but surely - BD will functionally replace DVD as possibly the last piece of circular media. It is being used actively as a storage/recording medium. And now it will be the gaming media for sony/microsoft/nintendo. (nintendo will use a single layer blu-ray disc although not be a blu-ray player).

    I only wonder the 4k and next generation 3D bandwidth requirements will continue to require physical media - if so will it be a circular disc?
    Last edited by Sbert; 05-21-2013 at 04:45 PM.
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    Slowly, but surely..
    Slowly yes, surely....maybe, maybe not. Blu-ray's overall OD share is still less than 30% and we're only a month away from Blu-ray's 7th year anniversary (DVD was only 9 years old when BLu-ray was launched) Digital is starting to make impressive YoY gains in growth so it looks like too little too late as far as the Xbox Blu-ray feature making any meaningful contributions to Sony's end game of Blu-ray overtaking DVD, The format is already showing signs of peaking and will soon begin its inevitable descent to make way for digital (which BTW the Xbox One will be used far more for).

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    Quote Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
    Slowly yes, surely....maybe, maybe not. Blu-ray's overall OD share is still less than 30% and we're only a month away from Blu-ray's 7th year anniversary (DVD was only 9 years old when BLu-ray was launched) Digital is starting to make impressive YoY gains in growth so it looks like too little too late as far as the Xbox Blu-ray feature making any meaningful contributions to Sony's end game of Blu-ray overtaking DVD, The format is already showing signs of peaking and will soon begin its inevitable descent to make way for digital (which BTW the Xbox One will be used far more for).
    And that's a shame considering blu-ray quality blows away anything streaming can do

    but then again, this is the average lazy joe and they just want their content easily, hence digital streaming has been gaining big ground.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Boston007 View Post
    And that's a shame considering blu-ray quality blows away anything streaming can do

    but then again, this is the average lazy joe and they just want their content easily, hence digital streaming has been gaining big ground.
    Blu-ray will always be superior PQ/AQ wise (as well as extras, subs, etc.), but unfortunately streaming quality is "good enough" for most people and convenience is the biggest selling feature.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
    Slowly yes, surely....maybe, maybe not. Blu-ray's overall OD share is still less than 30% and we're only a month away from Blu-ray's 7th year anniversary (DVD was only 9 years old when BLu-ray was launched) Digital is starting to make impressive YoY gains in growth so it looks like too little too late as far as the Xbox Blu-ray feature making any meaningful contributions to Sony's end game of Blu-ray overtaking DVD, The format is already showing signs of peaking and will soon begin its inevitable descent to make way for digital (which BTW the Xbox One will be used far more for).
    Well, what it means is that gross revenue wise, it will be taking over half of all the optical disc revenue once the new consoles launch. Royalties for the consoles will last for quite some time as you know.

    And as much as you say that there are signs that blu-ray is peaking. I'd say at this point, it might actually have bigger growth than last year in regards to gross revenue and possibly even percentage growth.

    In regards to Sony's endgame, I think they already have it. They had it after HD DVD folded. Now it's just a matter of seeing how much money they can make off royalties over the next several years to see if it was worth it for them.

    For the consumers that invested in blu-ray, it's a mixed bag because it looks like new tech is going to come out anyways -> 4k and another generation of 3D -> but then this was to be expected anyhow for any early adopter -> new shit comes every few years.
    Cheers to the ever positive Kosty, may you find peace and happiness in the heavens above.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sbert View Post
    Well, what it means is that gross revenue wise, it will be taking over half of all the optical disc revenue once the new consoles launch. Royalties for the consoles will last for quite some time as you know.
    Wait a minute, gross revenue is < 30% now and growing consistently about 5% year, and you're saying in 6 months it's going to be 50%? I don't think so. The Xbox One will have a negligible effect on accelerating Blu-ray's market share. Gamers will buy it to game and Blu-ray players are under $50 nowadays. Are they going to spend $400 (or whatever it will cost) to use it for Blu-ray?

    And as much as you say that there are signs that blu-ray is peaking. I'd say at this point, it might actually have bigger growth than last year in regards to gross revenue and possibly even percentage growth.
    That is possible, but if it happens, it will be because box office power was so much stronger than last year. It's also possible that Blu-ray can sustain growth because UV becomes popular, as Blu-ray (and DVD) would be the Trojan Horse for that. That will be interesting to see how it plays out.

    In regards to Sony's endgame, I think they already have it. They had it after HD DVD folded. Now it's just a matter of seeing how much money they can make off royalties over the next several years to see if it was worth it for them.
    Blu-ray has been a major disappointment revenue (and hence royalty) wise. Sony won, but they lost. Go figure. DVDs are included in perhaps 90% of all purchases so I don't think Toshiba feels like they really lost. Sony losing their dominance in the lucrative gaming market due to initial PS3 prices (necessitates by a Blu-ray drive) is the real loss here.

    For the consumers that invested in blu-ray, it's a mixed bag because it looks like new tech is going to come out anyways -> 4k and another generation of 3D -> but then this was to be expected anyhow for any early adopter -> new shit comes every few years.
    Looking forward to 4K, but I don't think the studio will be eager to roll out 4K scans of their movies, especially when sales will probably be weak.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
    Wait a minute, gross revenue is < 30% now and growing consistently about 5% year, and you're saying in 6 months it's going to be 50%? I don't think so. The Xbox One will have a negligible effect on accelerating Blu-ray's market share. Gamers will buy it to game and Blu-ray players are under $50 nowadays. Are they going to spend $400 (or whatever it will cost) to use it for Blu-ray?



    That is possible, but if it happens, it will be because box office power was so much stronger than last year. It's also possible that Blu-ray can sustain growth because UV becomes popular, as Blu-ray (and DVD) would be the Trojan Horse for that. That will be interesting to see how it plays out.



    Blu-ray has been a major disappointment revenue (and hence royalty) wise. Sony won, but they lost. Go figure. DVDs are included in perhaps 90% of all purchases so I don't think Toshiba feels like they really lost. Sony losing their dominance in the lucrative gaming market due to initial PS3 prices (necessitates by a Blu-ray drive) is the real loss here.



    Looking forward to 4K, but I don't think the studio will be eager to roll out 4K scans of their movies, especially when sales will probably be weak.
    Clarification in regards to the >50% I meant for day/date releases.

    In regards to royalty, I think the verdict still is out. Especially with all the new console games being on blu-ray discs for another 5-10 years. I'd say there's quite a bit of royalty to be made. Along with all the consoles that sport a BR drive/player.

    The royalty game is about legs and this new development pretty much tells us that Blu-ray is going to have very long legs.

    Of course, from a consumer perspective blu-ray has been a win. The only argument that stands at this point is whether or not Sony will get enough royalties to make up for what it lost.

    Sony's loss of marketshare isn't just the blu-ray drive and cost. It's the 1 year lag time to release of console. If you track sales of the console vs the xbox, the 1 year lag time coincides with uptake between the two.
    Cheers to the ever positive Kosty, may you find peace and happiness in the heavens above.
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    So all the new consoles will have BD drives and use BD media for games? I think that is a big win for the format. I am not sure how it will help home video specifically, but it will definitely result in a lot of revenue for BD patent holders and BD replication lines. Overall I think it is good for the format and I like the idea of the Xbox One being a media hub. The DVR, BD, streaming, functionality combined with the Kinect seems like a winner.

    Man the HD DVD drive for the Xbox seems so long ago.. Well, I guess it was

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    The Xbox One as a media hub does seem like a good idea...unless you just want to use it to play games first and watch movies second. In which case, it doesn't look too hot. Many argue that they are focusing far too much on the media hub aspect of the system and are making the gaming part out to be almost an afterthought.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nettacki View Post
    The Xbox One as a media hub does seem like a good idea...unless you just want to use it to play games first and watch movies second. In which case, it doesn't look too hot. Many argue that they are focusing far too much on the media hub aspect of the system and are making the gaming part out to be almost an afterthought.
    That's EXACTLY what they are doing. There is MORE money to be made with the media hub aspects.

    People are cutting the cable cord. Look at netflix with their own show and Amazon working on their own as well. We are moving in that direction because that's what consumers want.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Boston007 View Post
    That's EXACTLY what they are doing. There is MORE money to be made with the media hub aspects.

    People are cutting the cable cord. Look at netflix with their own show and Amazon working on their own as well. We are moving in that direction because that's what consumers want.
    That and the fact that Microsoft stated that yesterday's event was not going to focus on games since that was the focus of the E3 event for the platform.

    I am quite sure Microsoft is still serious about gaming. The Wii U is not looking very good right now, and game developers will flock to the Ps4 and Xbox One.

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    I can't see MS making more money off streaming than they do game royalties, xbox live and gaming add-ons. They are very dominant in gaming right now and I'm sure their intent is to stay that way. Streaming is becoming so fragmented that no one will ever own a big piece of that pie (except maybe Netflix, but I doubt it) and as of right now streaming/download revenue as a whole is small compared to gaming.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
    I can't see MS making more money off streaming than they do game royalties, xbox live and gaming add-ons. They are very dominant in gaming right now and I'm sure their intent is to stay that way. Streaming is becoming so fragmented that no one will ever own a big piece of that pie (except maybe Netflix, but I doubt it) and as of right now streaming/download revenue as a whole is small compared to gaming.
    I agree. I think they are actually trying to do the opposite. Get people who are not considered hardcore gamers to buy an Xbox One for everything else it can do, and then trojan horse people into gaming where MS stands to make the most money.

    I am interested in the DVR capability and how it will work with cable/sat companies (i.e. if they will play nice). The new Kinect also opens up lots of doors outside of just gaming. For example, with the facial recognition software it would be possible to recognize that my kids are in the room and it would only allow them to play certain rated games and movies (parental control).

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    Quote Originally Posted by ack_bak View Post
    I agree. I think they are actually trying to do the opposite. Get people who are not considered hardcore gamers to buy an Xbox One for everything else it can do, and then trojan horse people into gaming where MS stands to make the most money.
    That's exactly what I was thinking, the target market for the media center component is the casual gamer, someone who is open-minded and is considering it, or simply a parent who sees this as a way of killing two birds with one stone. It kinda like the combo Blu-ray/DVD/UV SKUs sold today. They want it to appeal to as large a target market as possible yet keep the price at a reasonable level (since BD players with streaming capability can be bought for $50, I don't think adding BD playback is adding much to the cost anyway. Besides MS really needs a BD drive anyway because games are getting too big for DVDs).

    I am interested in the DVR capability and how it will work with cable/sat companies (i.e. if they will play nice). The new Kinect also opens up lots of doors outside of just gaming. For example, with the facial recognition software it would be possible to recognize that my kids are in the room and it would only allow them to play certain rated games and movies (parental control).
    I would be open to buying this if the DVR will work with my cable company. But otherwise I don't like the rumors I'm hearing about requiring xbox live for single player gaming. I'm just a casual gamer who only sometimes plays single player games and don't want to have to be online or even "check in" every 24 hours or even have to download/register a game first just to play it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sbert View Post
    I only wonder the 4k and next generation 3D bandwidth requirements will continue to require physical media - if so will it be a circular disc?
    It will be interesting to see how well H.265 (a.k.a. HEVC) handles 4K video. Most likely it will be well into 2014 before we see hardware decoders.

    There does not appear to be anything that will supplant stamped disc (CD, DVD, Blu-ray [even LPs]) on the horizon because it is so cheap to produce and can be done in such vast quantities. Even tho NOR and NAND flash has come way down in price it is nowhere near as cheap as OD for content distribution.

    It is funny how all the metro folks thinks everyone is connected and everyone knows how to use all these gadgets. They really need to do some traveling across the US of A.

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