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  1. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sbert View Post
    I actually don't find the 28% percent number all too worrisome. I had thought we would be hitting 30% in Q4 of 2012, so it's not that far off.

    It's really the framing that you or mal put on it. How you access it and your interpretation of what it means. I find it acceptable under the circumstances. I wouldn't necessarily call it anemic.

    Again, this is where it's a matter of opinion. I can't change how you or mal view the sales metrics. I find them about where I thought it would be. I am off by 2% I guess, lol.

    Granted I didn't follow the sales at all Q4, so I don't know for sure if it was less than 30% or not, I assume so though. Usually DVD tends to sell better that BD during holidays in all prior years so marketshare in Q4 is lower.
    Actually Blu-ray did do 30% share last quarter. The average for the year was 28% though. The marketshare actually jumps a few points in Q4 due to the volume of box office power, which is usually about double that of the other 3 quarters of the year. So far this year it is 27%, and it's normal that it drops a few points after Q4 and gradually works its way back up to what it was the prior Q4 over the next several months. Q4 2011 had a higher market share than did Q3 2012, for example.

    The point is that everyone expected the market share to be higher than it is at this point in time. It would be worse if the combo packs didn't artificially boost unit shares on popular titles. They would probably be about 20% lower if it were a BD only.

  2. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
    Actually Blu-ray did do 30% share last quarter. The average for the year was 28% though. The marketshare actually jumps a few points in Q4 due to the volume of box office power, which is usually about double that of the other 3 quarters of the year. So far this year it is 27%, and it's normal that it drops a few points after Q4 and gradually works its way back up to what it was the prior Q4 over the next several months. Q4 2011 had a higher market share than did Q3 2012, for example.

    The point is that everyone expected the market share to be higher than it is at this point in time. It would be worse if the combo packs didn't artificially boost unit shares on popular titles. They would probably be about 20% lower if it were a BD only.
    I actually prognosticated it would 30 percent in q4 2010 - might have been q4 2009 - I don't remember. I think as of Q4 2010, we all kinda knew what the writing on the wall was by then. Like I said, none of this is new news as of 2-3 years ago.
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  3. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sbert View Post
    I actually prognosticated it would 30 percent in q4 2010 - might have been q4 2009 - I don't remember. I think as of Q4 2010, we all kinda knew what the writing on the wall was by then. Like I said, none of this is new news as of 2-3 years ago.
    Back in 2010, Blu-ray was enjoying 70% growth. I didn't see that writing on the wall back then. I certainly didn't anticipate that growth would plummet to the single digits a mere 2 years later. Maybe others did, but not me. So even though you prognosticated it, for many yeah it is new news.

  4. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sbert View Post
    Fair enough. I'll stop busting balls. LOL. I thought Blu-ray would have a better trajectory personally, but I've been pretty much floored by how bad our economy has gotten.

    My personal hypothesis about home media is that it isn't recession/economy proof. It might be resistant but definitely affected by economy. However, watching movies at movie theaters isn't much more recession proof/economy proof / resistant as it is one of the most popular ways to be entertained outside of the house for families, dates, etc.

    My position has always been that blu-ray has been performing par for the course under the circumstances. I actually thought that blu-ray was possibly going to go under before Heath ledgers untimely death made batman sell so well. Until then, I thought BD might have gone the way of the do-do bird.

    The economy no matter how you slice it, affects the whole chain in regards to development of resources to make BD's, make BD players, etc. With better economy more companies, more competition more development cheaper prices, economies of scale develop faster, consumers buy more, cheaper components, etc etc.
    I never thought Bluray was going to go under at that time! It sounds like I was more Pro bluray than even you! I thought it would last for years under performing DVD. But I thought it would do way better than this. I thought if it did hald as good as DVD I would cut it slack seeing how big DVD was. I thought it would do better than VHS. After all they are many more consumers in the world now as far as population. There are many more movies available now to sell to those consumers. And Blurays quality is so much better. But when it failed to even get close to VHS's numbers thats when I considered it a failure. Now I just see it as a better than nothing product that the studios are NOT going to abandoned because frankly they need every penny they can get. But they sure are not getting rich off of Bluray. Honestly from a business standpoint they might have been better off just sticking with DVD and save all those costs and effort involved with creating Bluray. Not good for us, but I'm trying to look at it from a business standpoint. Hind site is 20/20 as they say. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe all the costs have been recouped?
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