View Poll Results: What will Bluray's sell through growth be for 2013?

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  • 15% or more! Bluray is going to take off and have a second wind!

    2 10.00%
  • 10% to 14%

    4 20.00%
  • 5% to 9% about the same as 2012

    4 20.00%
  • 1% to 4%

    9 45.00%
  • Flat. No growth.

    0 0%
  • Negative. Bluray will make less in 2013 than in 2012

    1 5.00%
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  1. #91
    Quote Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
    I'm touting EST vs. Blu-ray because this forum has historically touted BLu-ray YoY vs. EST over and over and I'm just pointing out that the tide has turned.

    I agree that for HD vs. SD the only apples to apples info available is comparing OD vs. EST, as EST doesn't separate HD vs. SD. However it still remains that there are two growth areas in sell through and that's Blu-ray and EST. DVD has been declining for years. It's not unreasonable to compare these two growth areas. It's been done here for years and no one has complained before. But now that the numbers are less favorable for Blu-ray all of a sudden it's not a fair comparison? I don't get it.
    I see where you're coming from. I think digital delivery being present for so long, finally picking up is a good thing. I just don't find anything really important to hang a hat on in regards to comparing those two growths other than; yes, digital is finally picking up and yes, blu-ray is a mature format.

    Both I think almost everyone here would agree with that off the get go. It's hard to see any other significance in that data.

    That being said blu-ray can no longer boast that being a HD physical format even with curtailed adoption for reasons speculated here is not longer growing faster than all of EST <- this is true as you said.
    Last edited by Sbert; 02-07-2013 at 11:27 PM.
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  2. #92
    Quote Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
    Actually it's:

    50% YoY growth in Q4 2012
    35% YoY growth in ALL 2012
    19% YoY growth in ALL 2011.
    Ohhhh, I see now. Another dumb mistake on my part. Thanks for having the patience to correct me.

    So it'll probably quickly surpass Blu-ray in just a few short years, but the appeal is very limited in its current form as you and ack said.
  3. #93
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    Quote Originally Posted by cakefoo View Post
    Ohhhh, I see now. Another dumb mistake on my part. Thanks for having the patience to correct me.

    So it'll probably quickly surpass Blu-ray in just a few short years, but the appeal is very limited in its current form as you and ack said.
    That chart can be confusing to read. I doubt if EST will pass Blu-ray that soon, it would have to maintain the current growth rate while Blu-ray stays flat and starts to decline. Too many unknowns with EST and UV. Historically EST had been growing only around 10-15% a year, so if UV is a bust it may revert to that.

    One also has to wonder why exactly was EST up so much last year. I don't think they sold many UV downloads so it may have been the Walmart DVD-->UV trade in program or something. That kind of revenue stream is not sustainable.
  4. #94
    Expecting 1 to 4% of increase..
  5. #95
    Quote Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
    I'm touting EST vs. Blu-ray because this forum has historically touted BLu-ray YoY vs. EST over and over and I'm just pointing out that the tide has turned.

    I agree that for HD vs. SD the only apples to apples info available is comparing OD vs. EST, as EST doesn't separate HD vs. SD. However it still remains that there are two growth areas in sell through and that's Blu-ray and EST. DVD has been declining for years. It's not unreasonable to compare these two growth areas. It's been done here for years and no one has complained before. But now that the numbers are less favorable for Blu-ray all of a sudden it's not a fair comparison? I don't get it.
    It's not unfair. Especially when you can be in a store and find comparable DVDs and blurays next to each other for the same price. Tat shows me that like you said. There really isn't SD or HD anymore. It's just all physical media disc really. I doubt that was the goal set when Bluray was created. This is one of the reasons I consider Bluray a failure. Despite Bluray, the market will never be the same. The intent for Bluray was to replace DVD and continue that market for the studios. It failed to do that. It just ended up being another option for people as the market declines.
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  6. #96
    Quote Originally Posted by Malanthius View Post
    It's not unfair. Especially when you can be in a store and find comparable DVDs and blurays next to each other for the same price. Tat shows me that like you said. There really isn't SD or HD anymore. It's just all physical media disc really. I doubt that was the goal set when Bluray was created. This is one of the reasons I consider Bluray a failure. Despite Bluray, the market will never be the same. The intent for Bluray was to replace DVD and continue that market for the studios. It failed to do that. It just ended up being another option for people as the market declines.
    It's not unfair. I agree. It's just framed in a way that makes it sound worse for blu-ray than it really is; when in reality, it's nothing other than digital finally growing, and blu-ray maturing. Kinda sad that digital only now after years of availability is just started to grow and out clip a 7 year old mature format.

    When I think of blu-ray to est comparison, those critical of blu-ray performance all this time should be even more critical about digital's growth.
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  7. #97
    Quote Originally Posted by Malanthius View Post
    It's not unfair. Especially when you can be in a store and find comparable DVDs and blurays next to each other for the same price. Tat shows me that like you said. There really isn't SD or HD anymore. It's just all physical media disc really. I doubt that was the goal set when Bluray was created. This is one of the reasons I consider Bluray a failure. Despite Bluray, the market will never be the same. The intent for Bluray was to replace DVD and continue that market for the studios. It failed to do that. It just ended up being another option for people as the market declines.
    So do you consider MP3's and iTunes a complete failure for the music industry? What about HD satellite/cable?

    Is digital a complete failure for home video as well? I mean it has been out for quite awhile now and has failed to do what DVD did at the same point in time. I think we all agree that EST will never match what DVD generated at it's peak in terms of revenue growth. So does that make it a failure?

    Or are there other factors to consider, like I don't know, a market that has shifted considerably from buying to renting/streaming cheaply? Could that not have something to do with it?
  8. #98
    Quote Originally Posted by ack_bak View Post
    So do you consider MP3's and iTunes a complete failure for the music industry? What about HD satellite/cable?

    Is digital a complete failure for home video as well? I mean it has been out for quite awhile now and has failed to do what DVD did at the same point in time. I think we all agree that EST will never match what DVD generated at it's peak in terms of revenue growth. So does that make it a failure?

    Or are there other factors to consider, like I don't know, a market that has shifted considerably from buying to renting/streaming cheaply? Could that not have something to do with it?
    Yes, iTunes is a complete failure for the music industry. But it's really an apples to oranges comparison isn't it? iTunes was too late. Piracy already took hold when Napster took off. The music studios let that happen with their greed refusing to offer the same. Or maybe it was lack of vision? If the studios came up with a pay for digital offering maybe people would not have been trained to get digital content for free. That affected the movie industry as well as that mindset spilled over with people who wanted to share movies. So if iTunes was the music industry's successor to te CD? Yes complete failure.

    HDTV? I don't know enough about the costs that were involved and how much money those involved have made to really give an opinion. My guess is that it hasn't done much at all.

    Digital streaming? So for yes. Failure. But unlike Bluray. Digital is the future and has a future. Bluray doesn't. So there is still time for it being a totally new way of getting your content. Physical had a 100 year or so run? Digital is just starting. I'd love to hear what you think of my opinion rather than just ignoring my answer to your question.
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  9. #99
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    Quote Originally Posted by Malanthius View Post
    Yes, iTunes is a complete failure for the music industry. But it's really an apples to oranges comparison isn't it? iTunes was too late. Piracy already took hold when Napster took off. The music studios let that happen with their greed refusing to offer the same. Or maybe it was lack of vision? If the studios came up with a pay for digital offering maybe people would not have been trained to get digital content for free. That affected the movie industry as well as that mindset spilled over with people who wanted to share movies. So if iTunes was the music industry's successor to te CD? Yes complete failure.

    HDTV? I don't know enough about the costs that were involved and how much money those involved have made to really give an opinion. My guess is that it hasn't done much at all.

    Digital streaming? So for yes. Failure. But unlike Bluray. Digital is the future and has a future. Bluray doesn't. So there is still time for it being a totally new way of getting your content. Physical had a 100 year or so run? Digital is just starting. I'd love to hear what you think of my opinion rather than just ignoring my answer to your question.
    I hope home video don't fall as fast as what music video did. I don't think it will. Hollywood is a lot more established than the music industry and the quality of video will always matter more to consumers than that of audio. Just look at all those people who are using their TV speakers for audio.

    Physical has been around for 100 years or more, and I think it will always be around because people want to collect or own something tangible. Sometimes the packaging is just as important as the content. I bought a digibook of TDK Returns not because I wanted the packaging more than I wanted the movie. If I just wanted the movie and wasn't in any hurry to see it, then I would have waited 1-2 years and bought on a BF sale for $3.99. But I bought the digibook because I thought it looked cool and it was a Target exclusive.

    I think laserdisc was highly collectible as well, and DVD as well. There will always be collectors. The question is, to what extent?
  10. #100
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    An analyst is predicting 6% growth for BD in 2013.

    The decline is primarily driven by a projected 15% drop in DVD sales to $5.2 billion, offset by 6% rise in Blu-ray purchases to $2.5 billion and 40% surge in electronic sellthrough to $1.1 billion.
    http://www.homemediamagazine.com/ind...ugh-2013-29641
  11. #101
    Quote Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
    An analyst is predicting 6% growth for BD in 2013.



    http://www.homemediamagazine.com/ind...ugh-2013-29641
    I wonder what he used to come up with a 6% increase? Just a guess like us? Not saying he is going to be wrong. Obviously My guess is much less as I voted in the poll Bluray would see negative growth. But like I said I wouldn't be surprised to see some positive growth because after all. It is just a guess. But I gave my reasons why I think the way I do. Like lack of big catalog titles as all the big titles are already released. Plus I just see the streaming/vod mindset taking over the need to own physical mindset more and more with people I know, kids and their friends ect... I think we are going to be surprised at how fast that segment is going to grow. But then again. The studios may not see the money because of file sharing. I think they have already lost that fight the way the music industry lost it. IMO the movie industry has to radically change the way they think about distributing movies. If they want to make the kind of money they once did they may have to get rid of physical media all together and improve the VOD/streaming option. I think thats the only way they will fight piracy.
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  12. #102
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    Quote Originally Posted by Malanthius View Post
    I wonder what he used to come up with a 6% increase? Just a guess like us? Not saying he is going to be wrong. Obviously My guess is much less as I voted in the poll Bluray would see negative growth. But like I said I wouldn't be surprised to see some positive growth because after all. It is just a guess. But I gave my reasons why I think the way I do. Like lack of big catalog titles as all the big titles are already released. Plus I just see the streaming/vod mindset taking over the need to own physical mindset more and more with people I know, kids and their friends ect... I think we are going to be surprised at how fast that segment is going to grow. But then again. The studios may not see the money because of file sharing. I think they have already lost that fight the way the music industry lost it. IMO the movie industry has to radically change the way they think about distributing movies. If they want to make the kind of money they once did they may have to get rid of physical media all together and improve the VOD/streaming option. I think thats the only way they will fight piracy.
    Not really much difference between his guess (which is just a guess and probably not more informed than yours) and yours. Both forecast basically flat growth. He guess $2.5 billion and you guess about $2.3 billion. A difference of only $200 million which is chump change for DVD. My guess would put it around $2.4 billion. Peak City for everyone basically.
  13. #103
    Quote Originally Posted by Malanthius View Post
    It's not unfair. Especially when you can be in a store and find comparable DVDs and blurays next to each other for the same price. Tat shows me that like you said. There really isn't SD or HD anymore. It's just all physical media disc really. I doubt that was the goal set when Bluray was created. This is one of the reasons I consider Bluray a failure. Despite Bluray, the market will never be the same. The intent for Bluray was to replace DVD and continue that market for the studios. It failed to do that. It just ended up being another option for people as the market declines.
    Being a failure and failing to surpass the loftiest of goals are not the same thing.



    If people could have predicted a shift away from purchasing towards rentals and unlimited streaming and streaming TV shows, and if the CE manufacturers could have sooner recognized the true intent behind HDTV purchases was for the form factor and energy consumption and not necessarily HD content, then Blu-ray's expectations would never have been so high.
  14. #104
    Quote Originally Posted by cakefoo View Post
    Being a failure and failing to surpass the loftiest of goals are not the same thing.



    If people could have predicted a shift away from purchasing towards rentals and unlimited streaming and streaming TV shows, and if the CE manufacturers could have sooner recognized the true intent behind HDTV purchases was for the form factor and energy consumption and not necessarily HD content, then Blu-ray's expectations would never have been so high.
    What lofty goal are you talking about? I was talking about how I didn't think the studios envisioned Bluray selling side by side with DVD and not replacing it. That's a lofty goal now?

    Yes cakefoo. Things change sometimes. But what you seem to be saying is that all of the fanboy rants that Bluray will be a great success because of the bit rates and picture and disc size and scratch proof were really wrong? That DVD wasn't good enough and that mainstream consumers would be on board with Bluray were wrong? Because you do remember at the height of our debates here when some of us saw the writing on the wall looking at poor Bluray sales, we said all these things and were met with much disagreement? I sure do. Hey, don't feel bad. I thought the same thing too about HDM. I just wasn't attached to the winning format to be in denial about it for so long. I saw it as soon as we started seeing such lackluster sales. Maybe if HDDVD had won we would be having the same arguments from different ends of the table?
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  15. #105
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    I think Cakefoo and Sbert think you are saying Blu-ray should surpass what DVD did in its peak ($13.9 billion in 2006), while you're actually saying that Blu-ray should be replacing DVD period. I don't think it ever was a lofty goal that Blu-ray should be the dominant format for watching movies. That's what everyone was expecting. But that's not going to happen now. Blu-ray will never be the "next gen" format (ie, the most popular), because even if it gets close to overtaking DVD, IF it does, digital will be the dominant sell through format by then.

    I have doubts now that Blu-ray will ever overtake DVD. If it ever does, by then OD will be of small consequence and it won't really matter. Two years ago I was sure it would happen, but not now. Not the way growth has been stifled. I'm amazed that in spite the studios best efforts (short of cutting off their own arm by discontinuing DVD), consumer interest is so weak.

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