View Poll Results: What will Bluray's sell through growth be for 2013?

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  • 15% or more! Bluray is going to take off and have a second wind!

    2 9.52%
  • 10% to 14%

    4 19.05%
  • 5% to 9% about the same as 2012

    4 19.05%
  • 1% to 4%

    9 42.86%
  • Flat. No growth.

    0 0%
  • Negative. Bluray will make less in 2013 than in 2012

    2 9.52%
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  1. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
    Obviously Blu-ray can't be expected to match DVD's success, but come on, it's already peaking at less than 20% of DVD's peak? And less than half of VHS peak? And VHS was 70% rental and as such had yearly sell through + rental revenue that were fairly close to DVD, believe it or not. Especially so when you factor in inflation.

    I don't know what laser disc did, but it was a niche format. Blu-ray is a niche format to a lesser extent. It's market share against DVD is only growing by 4 percent a year and is still less than 30%. Do the math, which will come first: BLu-ray overtakes DVD or OD itself is less than 25% of total sell through?
    I think we need to take a step back and look at HD as a whole. It is pretty apparent by now that most Americans care more about price and availability of content than quality. All you need to do is look at HD cable/sat numbers, streaming, etc. Back in 2005/2007 I suspect many of us thought that most Ameicans care more about picture quality and that as more HDTV's are purchased people would transition to HD media. Hasn't really happened on any level. Cable/sat still have far more SD channels than HD and streaming and EST don't even breakout SD vs HD but I think we would all agree that the bulk of digital is SD. Majority of people are probably still more concerned about price than quality and the industry also could not have seen the impending economic crises in 2007 that has helped fuel cheaper consumption of content (Redbox, Netflix, etc). Latest Time Warner and Comcast numbers show people cutting the cord and you can't tell me price is not a core reason.

    To me, Blu-Ray never had a chance to be as big as DVD knowing what we know now and I will go ahead and state that digital HD streaming/EST will never see the numbers DVD did at it's peak adjusted for inflation.
    Last edited by ack_bak; 02-06-2013 at 03:23 PM.

  2. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
    It is in the US. I'm in construction and it's busy as hell. Housing prices are rising and that the key thing to any recovery. Unemployment has been declining for years.
    Recovery (GDP) contracted in 2012. 3% growth in 2011, 1.7% growth in 2012, but you cannot really use that as a true measure anyway as we say inflation outpace growth. Food costs more, gas costs more, housing prices (rental and buying) is up, healthcare costs rose, etc. With the recent tax adjustments as well most Americans will have a lot less money in their pockets to spend on non-essential goods in 2013. I know my healthcare costs are up about 10% year over year and next year is when companies and individuals will really get hit hard once Obamacare starts to kick in.

    Even if Americans saw a lot more discretionary spending in their pockets, I don't see home video ownership seeing a boom in growth. Too many other alternatives and for many people the damage is done (Redbox, Netflix, On Demand, video games, social media, etc) and owning movies will not be the priority it used to be.

    As for housing there are reports alrady that we may have another bubble:
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/100435276

    This is an interesting analysis and one that I tend to agree with based on what we have seen in my local area:
    http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily...133026817.html

  3. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Malanthius View Post
    Wendell, It's just a fun thing we have been doing here for awhile.
    Got ya!

    Quote Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
    By seeing where Blu-ray has been and where it's going, via the growth curve.
    Iíve had LaserDisc, βeta, VHS, still got DVD, D-VHS D-Theater and Blu-ray. Have only purchased Blu-ray titles for the last 6 years (very few DVDs). Looking forward to affordable 4K Blu-ray and 4K displays. I believe 4K is the next step but I am well aware that it most likely will be to Blu-ray as Blu-ray was/is to DVD.

    Look at like this, we have had HDTV for all most 15 years now and household penetration is about 75% with HDTVs. Color TV took even longer so I guess we are making some progress.

  4. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wendell R Breland View Post
    Got ya!



    Iíve had LaserDisc, βeta, VHS, still got DVD, D-VHS D-Theater and Blu-ray. Have only purchased Blu-ray titles for the last 6 years (very few DVDs). Looking forward to affordable 4K Blu-ray and 4K displays. I believe 4K is the next step but I am well aware that it most likely will be to Blu-ray as Blu-ray was/is to DVD.

    Look at like this, we have had HDTV for all most 15 years now and household penetration is about 75% with HDTVs. Color TV took even longer so I guess we are making some progress.
    I tried to find recent market penetration of HD cable/sat with HDTV owners and I cannot find any recent metrics by AC Nielsen as it appears they stopped tracking it.
    In 2007 only 11% of US homes even had an HDTV connected to an HD capable reciever (cable/sat) that had at least one channel broadcast in HD. If I had to guess, I would not be surprised to find less than 60% of US homes had HD capable reciever and watched HD content on their HDTV's. Pretty eye opening.

  5. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by ack_bak View Post
    I tried to find recent market penetration of HD cable/sat with HDTV owners and I cannot find any recent metrics by AC Nielsen as it appears they stopped tracking it.
    In 2007 only 11% of US homes even had an HDTV connected to an HD capable reciever (cable/sat) that had at least one channel broadcast in HD. If I had to guess, I would not be surprised to find less than 30% of US homes had HD capable reciever and watched HD content on their HDTV's. Pretty eye opening.
    I'm not sure how much of this is ignorance, stupidity, or indifference. LOL, probably combination of all.
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  6. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sbert View Post
    I'm not sure how much of this is ignorance, stupidity, or indifference. LOL, probably combination of all.
    Probably a little bit of everything. I have three HDTV's in my house and all of them get HD programming, but it is an extra expense each month. I know Comcast, Dish, and DirecTV all charge extra for HD vs SD. It can add up and I would guess many people don't want to pay extra.

  7. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by cakefoo View Post
    Why are you shocked?
    Sorry, I just find that as a lame excuse. I mean I expected it from you. But it's still lame. We all know the same thing you do. Should I mot make the poll or participate in one because of that kind of reason? It just makes you seem like you are the type of person that doesn't want to be wrong.
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  8. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by cakefoo View Post
    Clearly Blu-ray is not a repeat of DVD. But what's funny is how we need to have these ravenous fanboy debates about if that pink link will be 1 pixel higher or TWO pixels higher next year.
    Are you trying to now distance yourself from "those ravenous fanboy debates"? You have always seemed pretty involved in them with the rest of us. Why are they all of a sudden so funny now?
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  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by ack_bak View Post
    I think we need to take a step back and look at HD as a whole. It is pretty apparent by now that most Americans care more about price and availability of content than quality. All you need to do is look at HD cable/sat numbers, streaming, etc. Back in 2005/2007 I suspect many of us thought that most Ameicans care more about picture quality and that as more HDTV's are purchased people would transition to HD media. Hasn't really happened on any level. Cable/sat still have far more SD channels than HD and streaming and EST don't even breakout SD vs HD but I think we would all agree that the bulk of digital is SD. Majority of people are probably still more concerned about price than quality and the industry also could not have seen the impending economic crises in 2007 that has helped fuel cheaper consumption of content (Redbox, Netflix, etc). Latest Time Warner and Comcast numbers show people cutting the cord and you can't tell me price is not a core reason.

    To me, Blu-Ray never had a chance to be as big as DVD knowing what we know now and I will go ahead and state that digital HD streaming/EST will never see the numbers DVD did at it's peak adjusted for inflation.
    From what I remember that was highly debated here. Many of the guys I agreed with did not think that. That is why we were ridiculed for thinking Bluray would never do as good as DVD and that HDM was more of an enthusiast format. Guys like yourself defended Bluray on alomst every argument we made. So I'm a little confused as to who you are talking about?
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  10. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sbert View Post
    I'm not sure how much of this is ignorance, stupidity, or indifference. LOL, probably combination of all.
    I still have well to do relatives with multiple HD sets that do not pay for HD. They just think SD is good enough. They like the quality enough when they see it at my house. But not enough to pay for it. Just like some people don't need to collect movies the way I do.
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  11. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by Malanthius View Post
    From what I remember that was highly debated here. Many of the guys I agreed with did not think that. That is why we were ridiculed for thinking Bluray would never do as good as DVD and that HDM was more of an enthusiast format. Guys like yourself defended Bluray on alomst every argument we made. So I'm a little confused as to who you are talking about?
    Yep and I remember lots of people saying Blu-Ray was a failure and HD DVD would win.. yet here we are seven years later still talking about Blu-Ray.... Guess we all learned something... I suspect you will be making these polls for many more years to come

  12. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by ack_bak View Post
    Recovery (GDP) contracted in 2012. 3% growth in 2011, 1.7% growth in 2012, but you cannot really use that as a true measure anyway as we say inflation outpace growth. Food costs more, gas costs more, housing prices (rental and buying) is up, healthcare costs rose, etc. With the recent tax adjustments as well most Americans will have a lot less money in their pockets to spend on non-essential goods in 2013. I know my healthcare costs are up about 10% year over year and next year is when companies and individuals will really get hit hard once Obamacare starts to kick in.

    Even if Americans saw a lot more discretionary spending in their pockets, I don't see home video ownership seeing a boom in growth. Too many other alternatives and for many people the damage is done (Redbox, Netflix, On Demand, video games, social media, etc) and owning movies will not be the priority it used to be.

    As for housing there are reports alrady that we may have another bubble:
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/100435276

    This is an interesting analysis and one that I tend to agree with based on what we have seen in my local area:
    http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily...133026817.html
    Lol at another bubble. How much have home prices in the country as a whole increased in the last year? It can't be by much. And home values as a whole fell by close to 50% to begin with. If prices have recovered by 10% of that, how is that a bubble?

    It's just another sensationalist article that looking for a negative in a positive. Probably someone who voted for the losing candidate in the recent election..

  13. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by ack_bak View Post
    I tried to find recent market penetration of HD cable/sat with HDTV owners and I cannot find any recent metrics by AC Nielsen as it appears they stopped tracking it.
    I will have to find the last report that I saw. IIRC, last summer DEG said there were 80 million HDTV households in the US. Based on 2010 census of 115 million households means 70% had HDTV.

    Everyone with an HDTV, and I do mean everyone that I have saw had it set so that it stretched SD content to fill the screen. No matter that it makes folks look short and fat they want that screen filled.

    See, my take on Blu-ray is the opposite of most folks. I am surprised that it has sold (hardware & software) as well as it has/is. I guess that comes from being in the TV production/broadcast business for 38 years.

  14. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
    Lol at another bubble. How much have home prices in the country as a whole increased in the last year? It can't be by much. And home values as a whole fell by close to 50% to begin with. If prices have recovered by 10% of that, how is that a bubble?

    It's just another sensationalist article that looking for a negative in a positive. Probably someone who voted for the losing candidate in the recent election..
    The housing market will start Rollin again when 80/20s are back on the market. Right now I can't find any 80/20s lenders and I've been looking for some time.
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  15. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by ack_bak View Post
    I think we need to take a step back and look at HD as a whole. It is pretty apparent by now that most Americans care more about price and availability of content than quality. All you need to do is look at HD cable/sat numbers, streaming, etc. Back in 2005/2007 I suspect many of us thought that most Ameicans care more about picture quality and that as more HDTV's are purchased people would transition to HD media. Hasn't really happened on any level. Cable/sat still have far more SD channels than HD and streaming and EST don't even breakout SD vs HD but I think we would all agree that the bulk of digital is SD. Majority of people are probably still more concerned about price than quality and the industry also could not have seen the impending economic crises in 2007 that has helped fuel cheaper consumption of content (Redbox, Netflix, etc). Latest Time Warner and Comcast numbers show people cutting the cord and you can't tell me price is not a core reason.

    To me, Blu-Ray never had a chance to be as big as DVD knowing what we know now and I will go ahead and state that digital HD streaming/EST will never see the numbers DVD did at it's peak adjusted for inflation.
    EST will likely never see the numbers DVD put up in 2006 ($13.9 billion sell through), but EST will certainly peak higher than Blu-ray, and likely EST HD as well (if they ever separate it out so one can measure).

    I agree it's all about convenience with the consumer, and I think that goes for us as well. Do I really want to be rifling through my collection on the wall to choose 3-4 movies for my wife to choose one every time? Or would I rather have both of us choose the movies together via remote while camped in bed? A true videophile will sacrifice all convenience to get the maximum PQ/AQ, but with digital, will it always have to be a sacrifice?

    Also it depends on how far one is sitting from the TV. In the bedroom where I watch movies with the wife, DVD looks just as good as Blu-ray, and it loads faster too. I think a large percentage of people still watch movies from too far away (or have HDTVs too small still) to appreciate Blu-ray.

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