View Poll Results: What will Bluray's sell through growth be for 2013?

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  • 15% or more! Bluray is going to take off and have a second wind!

    2 9.52%
  • 10% to 14%

    4 19.05%
  • 5% to 9% about the same as 2012

    4 19.05%
  • 1% to 4%

    9 42.86%
  • Flat. No growth.

    0 0%
  • Negative. Bluray will make less in 2013 than in 2012

    2 9.52%
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  1. #16
    cakefoo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
    Clearly Blu-ray is not a repeat of DVD. But what's funny is how we need to have these ravenous fanboy debates about if that pink link will be 1 pixel higher or TWO pixels higher next year.

  2. #17
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    Blu-ray will continue to steadily cannibalize DVD. I believe the rate of change will be probably high enough to offset the price erosion. But I also think this will be a growth year still.

    I hope to see you singing some blu-ray laurel's if it is positive, mal. Being that you're expectations are as low as they are, if blu-ray outperforms your own expectations, you should be more positive about blu-ray's general performance otherwise.

    I, however, find blu-ray's performance as expected under the current economy/market conditions and competition.

    Streaming right now for new releases is more of a comparison of rental revenue more so than sell through.

    If there was a way to directly compare, digital purchases of media vs blu-ray, that would be more appropriate. Someone renting a movie to stream vs renting from red/box / video b&M stores would be all in the same category.

    Those actually buying digital licenses to own the movie forever more would be akin to buying the disc - dvd if sd, bd if HD.
    Cheers to the ever positive Kosty, may you find peace and happiness in the heavens above.
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  3. #18
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    The OWNERSHIP pie is getting smaller, not the OPTICAL DISC pie alone. Rentals are up, streaming is up. If people really were just sick of plastic discs, then digital movie purchases would be skyrocketing ala DVD's inception.

    This isn't JUST a disc smackdown forum guys.

  4. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by cakefoo View Post
    The OWNERSHIP pie is getting smaller, not the OPTICAL DISC pie alone. Rentals are up, streaming is up. If people really were just sick of plastic discs, then digital movie purchases would be skyrocketing ala DVD's inception.

    This isn't JUST a disc smackdown forum guys.
    You're right. Economy is squeezing people. Obamacare, inflation, etc...the money pie in general is gone. People are tighter with money more than ever before and buying a disc / candy / magazine off the rank in the aisle is happening less and less.
    Cheers to the ever positive Kosty, may you find peace and happiness in the heavens above.
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  5. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by cakefoo View Post
    Clearly Blu-ray is not a repeat of DVD. But what's funny is how we need to have these ravenous fanboy debates about if that pink link will be 1 pixel higher or TWO pixels higher next year.
    What's really funny is that Blu-ray's growth can even be measured in pixels. Is growth so small that you need a magnifying glass when it's stacked against its predecessors?

  6. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by cakefoo View Post
    The OWNERSHIP pie is getting smaller, not the OPTICAL DISC pie alone. Rentals are up, streaming is up. If people really were just sick of plastic discs, then digital movie purchases would be skyrocketing ala DVD's inception.

    This isn't JUST a disc smackdown forum guys.
    Umm, total sell through is down only 2.9% thanks to digital, which actually outgrew Blu-ray last year in net revenue gain. So EST actually covered more of DVD's attrition than did BLu-ray. Digital is now 8.8% of total sell through (meaning OD is the other 91.2%) after growing 35% last year. OD sell through itself was down 8% last year.

  7. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sbert View Post
    You're right. Economy is squeezing people. Obamacare, inflation, etc...the money pie in general is gone. People are tighter with money more than ever before and buying a disc / candy / magazine off the rank in the aisle is happening less and less.
    Still beating that ecomony drum. Face it, the economy is recovering, but OD is not following suit. Meaning: OD was not down because of the economy to begin with, but by other, much stronger forces that accompany every format when it reaches saturation. Consumers have never considered Blu-ray a separate format but rather as an add-on for DVD. Even the DEG report itself doesn't bother to separate out Blu-ray vs. DVD revenue. It's "optical disc" to them.

  8. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
    What's really funny is that Blu-ray's growth can even be measured in pixels. Is growth so small that you need a magnifying glass when it's stacked against its predecessors?
    You mean vs dvd right and possibly vhs?

    Obviously, against laser disc (a predecessor) or mini disc (a predecessor) or betamax (another predecessor) it would be a bit more apparent.

    All things are relative the way I see it.
    Cheers to the ever positive Kosty, may you find peace and happiness in the heavens above.
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  9. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
    Still beating that ecomony drum. Face it, the economy is recovering, but OD is not following suit. Meaning: the two are not related.
    We all know this will end up being where everything ends up going re: digital. It can only really go up. The question is how fast.

    Optical disc will die eventually. Obviously this won't happen anytime soon. Blu-ray will essentially be around until that happens.
    Cheers to the ever positive Kosty, may you find peace and happiness in the heavens above.
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  10. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
    Still beating that ecomony drum. Face it, the economy is recovering, but OD is not following suit. Meaning: the two are not related.
    Do you really think economy is recovering? LOL@U.
    Cheers to the ever positive Kosty, may you find peace and happiness in the heavens above.
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  11. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sbert View Post
    You mean vs dvd right and possibly vhs?

    Obviously, against laser disc (a predecessor) or mini disc (a predecessor) or betamax (another predecessor) it would be a bit more apparent.

    All things are relative the way I see it.
    Obviously Blu-ray can't be expected to match DVD's success, but come on, it's already peaking at less than 20% of DVD's peak? And less than half of VHS peak? And VHS was 70% rental and as such had yearly sell through + rental revenue that were fairly close to DVD, believe it or not. Especially so when you factor in inflation.

    I don't know what laser disc did, but it was a niche format. Blu-ray is a niche format to a lesser extent. It's market share against DVD is only growing by 4 percent a year and is still less than 30%. Do the math, which will come first: BLu-ray overtakes DVD or OD itself is less than 25% of total sell through?

  12. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sbert View Post
    Do you really think economy is recovering? LOL@U.
    It is in the US. I'm in construction and it's busy as hell. Housing prices are rising and that the key thing to any recovery. Unemployment has been declining for years.

  13. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
    It is in the US. I'm in construction and it's busy as hell. Housing prices are rising and that the key thing to any recovery. Unemployment has been declining for years.
    I'm in my iPhone but this is the important stuff about economy that I wanted to relate.
    1- GDP contracted last quarter, another contraction this quarter is recession.
    2 - Obamacare is going to cost 7 million people their healthcare insurance and a lot of those will be people loosing full time jobs to either getting let go or going part time.
    3- fiscal cliff and inflation is going to hit us. Furloughing the government isn't an option so expect inflation to pick up more.
    4 - middle class in light of more jobs is actually shrinking because the job growth is lower skilled and paying jobs.
    5- people's buying habits especially for impulse buying don't come back after economy returns to normal. I would not expect people to buy like they did before the economy tanked.

    There are links for all of the above I will post them later if you want. If you really think that the economy isn't related to consumer spending on non necessary items then show me your links.

    Necessary items food shelter transportation health.
    Cheers to the ever positive Kosty, may you find peace and happiness in the heavens above.
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  14. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by bruceames View Post
    Obviously Blu-ray can't be expected to match DVD's success, but come on, it's already peaking at less than 20% of DVD's peak? And less than half of VHS peak? And VHS was 70% rental and as such had yearly sell through + rental revenue that were fairly close to DVD, believe it or not. Especially so when you factor in inflation.

    I don't know what laser disc did, but it was a niche format. Blu-ray is a niche format to a lesser extent. It's market share against DVD is only growing by 4 percent a year and is still less than 30%. Do the math, which will come first: BLu-ray overtakes DVD or OD itself is less than 25% of total sell through?
    Well, my point is that you were comparing to DVD and you generalized to predecessors and I don't think that's an accurate portrayal.

    As much as sales only account for sub 30 percent, we do know on drill down that it's sales are dependent on day/date releases and certain genres. Obviously catalog is lackluster and so is straight up drama etc but that being said the sales percentage in other areas and market presense makes it mainstream.

    I don't think bluray is in anyway a niche product at this time.
    Cheers to the ever positive Kosty, may you find peace and happiness in the heavens above.
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  15. #30
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    I voted 1-4%. Blu-Ray is 7 years old this year and I think we will continue to see prices drop as the market is more saturated which will result in lower growth. There are a few events that could trigger more growth with one of them being the studios pushing more combo packs and phasing out DVD day and date and catalog titles in favor of combo packs. I don't see them doing it, but it is a potential scenario.

    One thing is for certain. It will be a very long transition from optical media to digital based on the numbers we have. Optical still has a huge slice of the overall pie and 4K could extend the life of Blu-Ray if the industry decides to use the format as the physical medium for 4K.

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