View Poll Results: What will Bluray's sell through growth be for 2013?
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Results 16 to 30 of 168
02-06-2013, 01:29 PM #16
02-06-2013, 01:36 PM #17
Blu-ray will continue to steadily cannibalize DVD. I believe the rate of change will be probably high enough to offset the price erosion. But I also think this will be a growth year still.
I hope to see you singing some blu-ray laurel's if it is positive, mal. Being that you're expectations are as low as they are, if blu-ray outperforms your own expectations, you should be more positive about blu-ray's general performance otherwise.
I, however, find blu-ray's performance as expected under the current economy/market conditions and competition.
Streaming right now for new releases is more of a comparison of rental revenue more so than sell through.
If there was a way to directly compare, digital purchases of media vs blu-ray, that would be more appropriate. Someone renting a movie to stream vs renting from red/box / video b&M stores would be all in the same category.
Those actually buying digital licenses to own the movie forever more would be akin to buying the disc - dvd if sd, bd if HD.
02-06-2013, 01:47 PM #18
The OWNERSHIP pie is getting smaller, not the OPTICAL DISC pie alone. Rentals are up, streaming is up. If people really were just sick of plastic discs, then digital movie purchases would be skyrocketing ala DVD's inception.
This isn't JUST a disc smackdown forum guys.
02-06-2013, 01:51 PM #19
02-06-2013, 02:01 PM #20
02-06-2013, 02:09 PM #21
02-06-2013, 02:11 PM #22
02-06-2013, 02:11 PM #23
02-06-2013, 02:13 PM #24
02-06-2013, 02:13 PM #25
02-06-2013, 02:19 PM #26
I don't know what laser disc did, but it was a niche format. Blu-ray is a niche format to a lesser extent. It's market share against DVD is only growing by 4 percent a year and is still less than 30%. Do the math, which will come first: BLu-ray overtakes DVD or OD itself is less than 25% of total sell through?
02-06-2013, 02:21 PM #27
02-06-2013, 03:08 PM #28
1- GDP contracted last quarter, another contraction this quarter is recession.
2 - Obamacare is going to cost 7 million people their healthcare insurance and a lot of those will be people loosing full time jobs to either getting let go or going part time.
3- fiscal cliff and inflation is going to hit us. Furloughing the government isn't an option so expect inflation to pick up more.
4 - middle class in light of more jobs is actually shrinking because the job growth is lower skilled and paying jobs.
5- people's buying habits especially for impulse buying don't come back after economy returns to normal. I would not expect people to buy like they did before the economy tanked.
There are links for all of the above I will post them later if you want. If you really think that the economy isn't related to consumer spending on non necessary items then show me your links.
Necessary items food shelter transportation health.
02-06-2013, 03:17 PM #29
As much as sales only account for sub 30 percent, we do know on drill down that it's sales are dependent on day/date releases and certain genres. Obviously catalog is lackluster and so is straight up drama etc but that being said the sales percentage in other areas and market presense makes it mainstream.
I don't think bluray is in anyway a niche product at this time.
02-06-2013, 03:47 PM #30
I voted 1-4%. Blu-Ray is 7 years old this year and I think we will continue to see prices drop as the market is more saturated which will result in lower growth. There are a few events that could trigger more growth with one of them being the studios pushing more combo packs and phasing out DVD day and date and catalog titles in favor of combo packs. I don't see them doing it, but it is a potential scenario.
One thing is for certain. It will be a very long transition from optical media to digital based on the numbers we have. Optical still has a huge slice of the overall pie and 4K could extend the life of Blu-Ray if the industry decides to use the format as the physical medium for 4K.