Fox Exec says "Blu-Ray Not Remotely Dead Yet"

[Arkadin]

well that's certainly a relief.
btw: ya'll can release the Marilyn Monroe films any year now.
http://www.t3.com/news/blu-ray-and-d...-vp-danny-kaye

[Kosty]

Those are some bullish comments on physical media from a Fox executive.

Thank you for finding that. Those comments make sense and are consistent with what we are seeing now with the numbers but the question is how long that can be sustained.


(crossposted in the sales thread for reference)

“Obviously it’s popular to talk about the ‘decline of physical media’ but even with the last four years of recession which have put a dent in the purchase model where maybe units did decline on DVD faster than perhaps Blu-ray could have compensated for,”

“[However] particularly in the US starting mid year 2011 the market began to stabilise and what you’re now beginning to see in the start of 2012 is growth in the physical market”

Blu-ray 'not remotely' dead says 20th Century Fox top Exec

Updated 17:34 28 Mar 2012 by Thomas Tamblyn

In Danny Kaye's eyes the 'perfect storm' of 2011 is over for Blu-ray and physical media, with the market levelling out he believes the future is bright for the format

According to Twentieth Century Fox Executive Vice President of Global Research & Technology Danny Kaye, Blu-ray and other physical media has a long way to go before it’s written off by the likes of Netflix and LOVEFiLM Instant.

Despite the growth of these services Kaye is confident that physical media is still one of the best routes to go for arguing that the fluid nature of the internet means governance over content is much lower.

“We can govern the quality of Blu-ray, we can govern the quality of DVD for example, but even Netflix or say LOVEFiLM for example, can’t govern the quality of their service delivery because it then depends on someone else [Internet Service Provider]”

Talking about the dip in physical media Kaye points out that there were a culmination of factors to blame, most prominent of which included the boom of streaming services.

“It was the perfect storm you know right? When the recession started perhaps it hit harder and earlier in the US and then started spreading elsewhere.”

“It was the same time that you had a number of alternative channels of distribution begin to evolve and the consumer said, ‘Wow that’s pretty convenient, they’re cheaper, in some cases they’re really convenient and that’s the way I’m going to go.’”

Despite these more 'convenient' alternatives Kaye believes strongly that any such dip in physical media was a natural reaction and has since ended, he further backs this up with the news that for Fox physical media is still growing.

“Obviously it’s popular to talk about the ‘decline of physical media’ but even with the last four years of recession which have put a dent in the purchase model where maybe units did decline on DVD faster than perhaps Blu-ray could have compensated for,”

“[However] particularly in the US starting mid year 2011 the market began to stabilise and what you’re now beginning to see in the start of 2012 is growth in the physical market”

http://www.t3.com/news/blu-ray-and-d...-vp-danny-kaye

[rm082e]

Seems perfectly reasonable to me. It's a combination of all the things we've been saying for a couple of years now.

*shrug*

[Kosty]

Seems perfectly reasonable to me. It's a combination of all the things we've been saying for a couple of years now.

*shrug*

Yeah its pretty much common sense to say that Internet and streaming and the recession hurt DVD sales more than the growth of Blu-ray could compensate for. But some have argued that its all been Blu-ray''s fault so that's more of an argument against that point of view.

[Kosty]

Blu-ray not dead, says Twentieth Century Fox executive

Published Thursday, Mar 29 2012, 12:48pm EDT | By Mark Langshaw | 30 comments


Twentieth Century Fox's executive vice president of global research & technology has said that Blu-ray and physical media will not be phased out by digital any time soon.

Danny Kaye told T3 that services such as Netflix and LOVEFiLM cannot guarantee the same level of viewing quality as Blu-ray.

"We can govern the quality of Blu-ray, we can govern the quality of DVD for example, but even Netflix or say LOVEFiLM for example, can't govern the quality of their service delivery because it then depends on someone else [Internet Service Provider]," he said.

However, Kaye did attribute the downturn of physical media sales to the growing popularity of streaming services, among other factors.

"It was the perfect storm you know, right? When the recession started perhaps it hit harder and earlier in the US and then started spreading elsewhere," he added.

"It was the same time that you had a number of alternative channels of distribution begin to evolve and the consumer said, 'Wow that's pretty convenient, they're cheaper, in some cases they're really convenient and that's the way I'm going to go'."

The executive pointed out that Fox's physical sales began to pick up around mid-2011, and predicted that there will be "growth" in the sector during 2012.

http://www.digitalspy.com/tech/news/...executive.html

[Ace_of_Sevens]

Danny Kaye is in charge of Fox's Home Entertainment division? I thought he was contracted to Paramount.

[silverado]

Yeah its pretty much common sense to say that Internet and streaming and the recession hurt DVD sales more than the growth of Blu-ray could compensate for. But some have argued that its all been Blu-ray''s fault so that's more of an argument against that point of view.

I call Bullshit!! How many times does it have to be said by "bitter HDDVD fanboys" that Blu ray is competing with the internet and the time spent on it! Thousands of times we have stated that Facebook, Youtube, Twitter, Angrybirds, texting....etc are all competition for Blu ray. Then some belittled those members, and now you have magically just discovered that this is the case all along?!?
It's not all Blu ray's fault, just too little too late for the social media generation.

[silverado]

If there is growth in the OD sector in 2012, we still won't see blu ray explode in sales and cover DVD's attrition. Will not happen and it seems that now reality has set in with some here and understand that the new generation coming up that was supposed to purchase catalog that us older collectors already have, are not going to buy.
Even with the recession, we still saw a shift from OD and it will be painfully obvious soon.

[cakefoo]

I call Bullshit!! How many times does it have to be said by "bitter HDDVD fanboys" that Blu ray is competing with the internet and the time spent on it! Thousands of times we have stated that Facebook, Youtube, Twitter, Angrybirds, texting....etc are all competition for Blu ray. Then some belittled those members, and now you have magically just discovered that this is the case all along?!?
It's not all Blu ray's fault, just too little too late for the social media generation.

when he says "some" people, he doesn't mean "all." i know. Complex stuff, the English language!

[Kosty]

If there is growth in the OD sector in 2012, we still won't see blu ray explode in sales and cover DVD's attrition. Will not happen and it seems that now reality has set in with some here and understand that the new generation coming up that was supposed to purchase catalog that us older collectors already have, are not going to buy.
Even with the recession, we still saw a shift from OD and it will be painfully obvious soon.

At the moment Blu-ray actually is fully covering DVD's reduced attrition in 2012.

Blu-ray is also likely to have a much higher YoY rate at the end of the 1Q 2012 period than it did at the end of 1Q 2011 as well and there is not an Avatar or Alice In Wonderland in the comparisons to drive those metrics down either in the 2Q this year either.

[silverado]

when he says "some" people, he doesn't mean "all." i know. Complex stuff, the English language!

Here I thought that the word some meant the few who did not blindly follow the naive..
Of course I read "some", how in the hell did you get "all" from my post??
"Some" (the few that were attacked for supporting HDDVD) have been stating the obvious for quite some time and the "rest" are just realizing it now.
Just like if anyone tells you that Blu ray is covering DVD sales attrition is lying through their teeth, it has not happened before, it is not happening now, and it won't happen in the future.

Nice personal attack though, missed that about this site

[cakefoo]

Here I thought that the word some meant the few who did not blindly follow the naive..
Of course I read "some", how in the hell did you get "all" from my post??

Just because you can name people who didn't fit the profile Kosty described, doesn't mean his statement is false. I can say "some m&m's are brown" and you can't say "Bullshit! I know of plenty of yellow and blue and red m&m's!"

Simmer down, JHC.

[Kosty]

My point here was that the core of the problem of OD decline was not so much that Blu-ray did not grow fast enough or Blu-ray sales were either disappointing or below projections. But rather that the economy being poor, the rise of cheap rental options like Redbox and Netflix and unlimited subscription VOD from Netflix streaming caused DVD sales to collapse at a faster rate than the growth of Blu-ray could compensate for and offset.

So it was not just Blu-ray's fault for slow growth it was other market circumstances that caused DVD to decline faster than expected.

Which sounds a lot like this statement:

Obviously it’s popular to talk about the ‘decline of physical media’ but even with the last four years of recession which have put a dent in the purchase model where maybe units did decline on DVD faster than perhaps Blu-ray could have compensated for,”

“[However] particularly in the US starting mid year 2011 the market began to stabilise and what you’re now beginning to see in the start of 2012 is growth in the physical market”

[cakefoo]

And the people who say, "Blu-ray didn't make up for DVD's declines? Oh, well then it's a failure."

[silverado]

And the people who say, "Blu-ray didn't make up for DVD's declines? Oh, well then it's a failure."

I know you have some bad luck when it comes to thinking, so I am forced to correct you.....again!
NOBODY said Blu ray had to make up for DVD's decline, that is insinuating that unless Blu ray brings in 22 billion a year in sell through, it will be a failure. No one ever said that or implied it.
Whatever DVD lost in a year in sell through, blu ray should replace. Eg. if DVD lost 2 billion in 2009, then Blu ray would only have to 2.1 billion in sell through to be successful, which is not asking too much for the superior format.
It has never done that nor will it ever do that.
Blu ray is not a failure yet, but it is closing in.