View Poll Results: What will Bluray do in 2012, YOY sell through?

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  • More than 20% Growth. Better than 2011

    13 33.33%
  • 10% - 19%

    19 48.72%
  • 5% - 9%

    4 10.26%
  • 1%-4% Barely above flat.

    2 5.13%
  • Flat to negative

    1 2.56%
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  1. #31
    cakefoo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Malanthius View Post
    Exactly why I created it Lee. There is a lot of heated debates on expectations. Let people put their expectations out there. I have no problem putting mine out there. And if anyone does I just see that as more proof that they don't want to have to own up to them later.

    Kudos to Ack and Analogkid for actually voting.

    And you guys. But I knew that none of you would have a problem putting your expectations out there. What does that tell you?
    It tells me that after you guys sat around bashing Blu-ray through the down weeks and through December, you knew full well that releases mattered all along.

  2. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by cakefoo View Post
    It tells me that after you guys sat around bashing Blu-ray through the down weeks and through December, you knew full well that releases mattered all along.
    I never caved. Historically you can see that December is full of the Holiday Shopping Season Sales Boost. It really doesn't matter what movies are released. The difference is small.

  3. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post
    I never caved. Historically you can see that December is full of the Holiday Shopping Season Sales Boost. It really doesn't matter what movies are released. The difference is small.
    How does it not matter? Poor content = no sales! If it isn't something worthy of being owned it gets rented. This is what the studios need to start understanding. Otherwise no format will save the home entertainment industry.

    ... and the difference is huge $1.20 Vs. $20. Multiply the losses caused by redbox and other rental kiosk companies and it becomes huge.
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  4. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post
    Nope - it makes you a dirty fanboy who now understands reality.
    You are confused. I have been saying since the turn of the mid-year that Blu-ray looked like a 20-25% growth format, as that is where it was trending before Avatar and Alice in Wonderland, and that is where it was quickly returning to after the summer drought. The main stance I took this past year was, releases matter, box office matters, tentpole releases matter, and genres matter. The stance the trolls took was, let's rub the individual down week YOY %'s in the fanboys' faces, and mock them when they say releases matter!"

    I'm better than that, so I have a clean conscience. I would hate to have yours.

  5. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by Solstice X View Post
    How does it not matter? Poor content = no sales! If it isn't something worthy of being owned it gets rented. This is what the studios need to start understanding. Otherwise no format will save the home entertainment industry.

    ... and the difference is huge $1.20 Vs. $20. Multiply the losses caused by redbox and other rental kiosk companies and it becomes huge.
    You really need to compare the TBO for December 2010 and the TBO for December 2011 then look at the BD sales for the month of December 2010 versus 2011.

    Don't forget to look at the movies that were released in the last few weeks of November too. New releases have a sales tail that is longer then 1 week despite what some seem to think here.

  6. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post
    I never caved. Historically you can see that December is full of the Holiday Shopping Season Sales Boost. It really doesn't matter what movies are released. The difference is small.
    If you just looked at the data you would be proven wrong. $25M more sales in the top 20 alone in 2010 solely on the strength of new releases. People don't stop buying new releases in December to make way for buying gifts. December weeks fluctuate based on what released that week. Just look at any weekly revenue graph showing multiple years and you'll see the peaks and valleys as they correspond to release power. You are the one in denial.

  7. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by cakefoo View Post
    You are confused. I have been saying since the turn of the mid-year that Blu-ray looked like a 20-25% growth format, as that is where it was trending before Avatar and Alice in Wonderland, and that is where it was quickly returning to after the summer drought. The main stance I took this past year was, releases matter, box office matters, tentpole releases matter, and genres matter. The stance the trolls took was, let's rub the individual down week YOY %'s in the fanboys' faces, and mock them when they say releases matter!"

    I'm better than that, so I have a clean conscience. I would hate to have yours.
    Releases do matter . . . except in the month of December. And for some reason you are perputrating a myth that brand new releases have a sales tail of 1 week, which is pure bullshit. You're just a legend in your own mind - that's all.

  8. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by Solstice X View Post
    How does it not matter? Poor content = no sales! If it isn't something worthy of being owned it gets rented. This is what the studios need to start understanding. Otherwise no format will save the home entertainment industry.

    ... and the difference is huge $1.20 Vs. $20. Multiply the losses caused by redbox and other rental kiosk companies and it becomes huge.
    It's not that simple though. Even big good releases don't sell the way they would have on DVD. Ownership is down for many other reasons than just poor releases. During DVDs hayday even poor releases sold well. The market has changed. And Bluray didn't stop that change from happening. It wasn't viewed as a must have product like DVD was.
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  9. #39
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    It's very hard to estimate how BD will do this year, but the movie lineup for the year really doesn't look so hot. There looks to be about 7 major titles being released, and likely a few more will really do well, but it's so hard to tell. It'll also be hard to know how much of a changeover to BD buying will actually occur from the current DVD buying crowd vs. just renting. I'm not expecting much.

    I'm thinking about 17%, but really I think a lot depends on the quality of the movies released this year. A few more major hits and BD could do a fair bit better. I don't think it will do worse than 15% though.

    Maybe the poll could have been broken up a bit more because I think 15% is a pretty easy answer and hits right between 10 and 19 perecent.
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  10. #40
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    I voted 10-19%. closer to 10%.

  11. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post
    Releases do matter . . . except in the month of December. And for some reason you are perputrating a myth that brand new releases have a sales tail of 1 week, which is pure bullshit. You're just a legend in your own mind - that's all.
    No, you have a tendency to put words in my mouth just because you assumed so and just because I don't have time to respond to your fud. The fact of the matter is that compared to 2010's December releases, 2011's releases were Joan Rivers and 2010's were Kim Kardashian. So let's not sit here and pretend that 2010 didn't have an advantage in box office power and new release freshness.

  12. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by AV_Integrated View Post
    It's very hard to estimate how BD will do this year, but the movie lineup for the year really doesn't look so hot. There looks to be about 7 major titles being released, and likely a few more will really do well, but it's so hard to tell. It'll also be hard to know how much of a changeover to BD buying will actually occur from the current DVD buying crowd vs. just renting. I'm not expecting much.

    I'm thinking about 17%, but really I think a lot depends on the quality of the movies released this year. A few more major hits and BD could do a fair bit better. I don't think it will do worse than 15% though.

    Maybe the poll could have been broken up a bit more because I think 15% is a pretty easy answer and hits right between 10 and 19 perecent.
    I was going to break it up more but thought the ranges are close enough. How close can anyone really get? It's all just guess work anyway. I appreciate your vote and laying it on the line. I respect anyone for doing that. As for releases? Here's a gem coming>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
    Scorpion King 3? With Billy Zane and Kimbo Slice? See that advertising?! Didn't even hear about that one coming.
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  13. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by cakefoo View Post
    No, you have a tendency to put words in my mouth just because you assumed so and just because I don't have time to respond to your fud. The fact of the matter is that compared to 2010's December releases, 2011's releases were Joan Rivers and 2010's were Kim Kardashian. So let's not sit here and pretend that 2010 didn't have an advantage in box office power and new release freshness.
    So then whats your vote? You think things are looking any better for 2012? I don't. And I think streaming, VOD and especially rentals are going to impact Bluray even more in 2012. That's why I voted the way I did.
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  14. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by cakefoo View Post
    No, you have a tendency to put words in my mouth just because you assumed so and just because I don't have time to respond to your fud. The fact of the matter is that compared to 2010's December releases, 2011's releases were Joan Rivers and 2010's were Kim Kardashian. So let's not sit here and pretend that 2010 didn't have an advantage in box office power and new release freshness.
    "if all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail"

    That too profound for you?

  15. #45
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    I'll join you Mal. You look kinda lonely down there.

    This year the studios will hold the line with higher prices on new releases resulting in stagnant sales revenue overall.....OR NOT!
    = 22
    Dumped Dish and moved over to DirecTV mostly to get 3D content.
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