"...notably in Blu-ray": An honest HMM mistake or an intentional add-on quote?

[TheAnalogKid]

I'm not distorting anything Kosty. You are playing this word game in order to makes things sound and look better for Bluray. Please read me back what you wrote and explain to me how I should take that any other way than the way that I did. You are in fact making lite of DVDs decline and pumping up Blurays growth saying it that way. Are you not?

I don't see where he said that blu ray is outpacing the decline of dvd like you accused him of. You don't like the word substantially, ok fine. That doesn't make it right for you to lie about what he said. You play the word game all the time, trying to make things sound and look worse than they are for blu ray. So you dont really have a right to complain about anyones perceived spin or bias when you throw out just as much garbage as anyone else.

[Lee Stewart]

I don't see where he said that blu ray is outpacing the decline of dvd like you accused him of. You don't like the word substantially, ok fine. That doesn't make it right for you to lie about what he said. You play the word game all the time, trying to make things sound and look worse than they are for blu ray. So you dont really have a right to complain about anyones perceived spin or bias when you throw out just as much garbage as anyone else.

BD Revenue (sales and rentals)

2008 = $0.9B
2009 = $1.5B
2010 = $2.3B

So you think those are good numbers? How about 2011? Take a guess at what the total revenue will be for BD.

[PSound]

BD Revenue (sales and rentals)

2008 = $0.9B
2009 = $1.5B
2010 = $2.3B

So you think those are good numbers? How about 2011? Take a guess at what the total revenue will be for BD.

Anything less than $3.1 billion would be disastrous. That would represent the same actual revenue increase of last year with a much, much larger base.

$3.2 - $3.3 billion would be moderate (40%) growth.

$3.4 - $3.5 would be considered good growth, although the packaging shifts occurring kind of mess up the projections as DVD revenue is purposefully being hobbled in order to boost Blu-ray.

[Sbert]

Anything less than $3.1 billion would be disastrous. That would represent the same actual revenue increase of last year with a much, much larger base.

$3.2 - $3.3 billion would be moderate (40%) growth.

$3.4 - $3.5 would be considered good growth, although the packaging shifts occurring kind of mess up the projections as DVD revenue is purposefully being hobbled in order to boost Blu-ray.

The format will peak in the next couple years. It's going to slow down. There's nothing disastrous about it.

Talk about over blowing things.

I think if we end up with 20 percent growth, so be it. It only tells us that next year or the year after we're going to peak.

It happens and really isn't a big deal.

The big deal is where is digital going to go with revenue. That's the next star on the block coming up.

[Kosty]

Unit sale increases and marketshare gains will also be higher for Blu-ray than the revenue gains as the revenue statistics are affected by the unit price reductions as well.

Saying any growth figure under 31% would be considered disastrous in the face of this economy is pure hyperbole anyway. Especially if Blu-ray's growth is a lot more than digital with the same releases.

[Lee Stewart]

Unit sale increases and marketshare gains will also be higher for Blu-ray than the revenue gains as the revenue statistics are affected by the unit price reductions as well.

Saying any growth figure under 31% would be considered disastrous in the face of this economy is pure hyperbole anyway. Especially if Blu-ray's growth is a lot more than digital with the same releases.

All that means is they have reduced the price of BD units. That doesn't bode well with your soapbox speech that BD is a higher margin product

[Sbert]

Unit sale increases and marketshare gains will also be higher for Blu-ray than the revenue gains as the revenue statistics are affected by the unit price reductions as well.

Saying any growth figure under 31% would be considered disastrous in the face of this economy is pure hyperbole anyway. Especially if Blu-ray's growth is a lot more than digital with the same releases.

but but...top line revenue and conversion factors say otherwise. And not to mention we had a record selling box office this past july.

Kosty, the economy is obvious a major factor.

I think we will peak in the next couple years but marketshare will continue to go up as dvd continues to decline at a faster rate. Blu-ray probably going to stay near peak for a 3-4 years before shrinking.

That's 8-9 years before decline for BD. Not a bad life cycle per se.

[Sbert]

All that means is they have reduced the price of BD units. That doesn't bode well with your soapbox speech that BD is a higher margin product

well, we are going to cross year 6, the margin is going to be smaller and will in effect possibly push DVD even lower and make it even less profitable.

Let's not forget the NATURAL progression of OD will be shrinking probably to <40 percent peak revenue and eventual hope of a digital solution to pick up the slack.

[Lee Stewart]

but but...top line revenue and conversion factors say otherwise. And not to mention we had a record selling box office this past july.

Kosty, the economy is obvious a major factor.

I think we will peak in the next couple years but marketshare will continue to go up as dvd continues to decline at a faster rate. Blu-ray probably going to stay near peak for a 3-4 years before shrinking.

That's 8-9 years before decline for BD. Not a bad life cycle per se.

That would put the peak of BD at a longer time period then the most successful HV format; DVD

DVD never plateaued. It went up, then it went down.

[PSound]

Saying any growth figure under 31% would be considered disastrous in the face of this economy is pure hyperbole anyway. Especially if Blu-ray's growth is a lot more than digital with the same releases.

Seeing YoY declines in actual revenue growth at this phase would be disastrous, especially considering the massive DVD market that Blu-ray is designed to cannibalize from.


That would mean less actual revenue growth in 2011 vs 2010 with a much larger installed base and two of the largest catalog offerings available for Home Video getting BD releases (LOTR and Star Wars). Think about that for a second... Less actual revenue dollar growth despite the BD only sell through window for a major sequel, Blu-ray only catalog releases for LOTR and Star Wars and the much larger installed base. That would be a disastrous year.

[Sbert]

That would put the peak of BD at a longer time period then the most successful HV format; DVD

DVD never plateaued. It went up, then it went down.

well, I said near peak might be marginal declines or gains to me this is <5 percent range. I think the cannibalization of dvd will convert into a steady state product for a bit.

[Sbert]

Seeing YoY declines in actual revenue growth at this phase would be disastrous, especially considering the massive DVD market that Blu-ray is designed to cannibalize from.


That would mean less actual revenue growth in 2011 vs 2010 with a much larger installed base and two of the largest catalog offerings available for Home Video getting BD releases (LOTR and Star Wars). Think about that for a second... Less actual revenue dollar growth despite the BD only sell through window for a major sequel, Blu-ray only catalog releases for LOTR and Star Wars and the much larger installed base. That would be a disastrous year.

There's a big ass difference between poor performance and disastrous for the format.

If you mean by disaster that it will herald the pullback of studios from making BD's, then yes it would be disastrous; however, I don't think that's going to happen. So it doesn't really matter to some degree.

PSound is spinning to keep the eye/discussion off of netflix's disaster.

[Malanthius]

but but...top line revenue and conversion factors say otherwise. And not to mention we had a record selling box office this past july.

Kosty, the economy is obvious a major factor.

I think we will peak in the next couple years but marketshare will continue to go up as dvd continues to decline at a faster rate. Blu-ray probably going to stay near peak for a 3-4 years before shrinking.

That's 8-9 years before decline for BD. Not a bad life cycle per se.

Really? Maybe if Bluray were topping out at 6-7 Billion a year in sales I could agree with you. But if it's best year is less that 3 Billion? Didn't Laserdisc do better than that? Or near that? That would be pathetic IMO. Especially when you consider the amount of marketing that has been put into Bluray.

[Malanthius]

There's a big ass difference between poor performance and disastrous for the format.

If you mean by disaster that it will herald the pullback of studios from making BD's, then yes it would be disastrous; however, I don't think that's going to happen. So it doesn't really matter to some degree.

PSound is spinning to keep the eye/discussion off of netflix's disaster.

Why would that happen? Bluray is only complimenting DVD. So the studios will be happy with what they get from it.

[Sbert]

Why would that happen? Bluray is only complimenting DVD. So the studios will be happy with what they get from it.

That's my point. At this point, there is very little that can be disastrous enough to cause pull back of BD support either software or hardware significantly by the studios.

I was commenting on PSounds choice of words and how the performance at this time would be disastrous.