Analyst: Netflix Facing Uncertain Environment: Pricing Subscriber Loss International

[Kosty]

I am only sharing my personal take on what information I can gather from the questions I ask.

I am in no way shape or form a representative of Home Media Magazine.

My opinions are my own and any additional information I may obtain from any industry source I ever interact with is always unofficial and informal in nature and is obviously processed through my own filters.

Again you distort the nature of my informal relationship with HMM.

Just because I can give them the head's up courtesy of pointing out an error so they can correct it online and before final publication and can ask questions and get a response does not hardly make me a representative of that organization.

[PSound]

I am only sharing my personal take on what information I can gather from the questions I ask.

You are speaking their view based on information from your personal and professional contacts that others do not have.


Since you are receiving non-public data from them in support of their position and posting their take of the issue in this site, you are speaking for them on this site.

[Kosty]

You are speaking their view based on information from your personal and professional contacts that others do not have.


Since you are receiving non-public data from them in support of their position and posting their take of the issue in this site, you are speaking for them on this site.

Non public data? You are sounding like they are obligated to give public data like a publicly traded company on their operations. LOL.

I am hardly being asked to support their positions.

I do ask questions for us to gain additional information from time to time from them and have informal bits of clarifying information that I ask about and get some feedback from, but I hardly get enough information to speak for them nor am I in any manner authorized to speak for them or represent them in any way shape or form.

Any comments I may have that may be deemed by you to be supportive of them over time are my own personal opinions that may be enhanced by additional information I may have informally received.

Again you simply distort the nature of my relationship with them.

[PSound]

Again you simply distort the nature of my relationship with them.

So please explain the nature of your relationship with them, including data they regularly provide to you and data you provide to them.

[Sarang]

Depends on the type of Soap, I LOVE my Korean Drama's and wish Netflix would carry more. Along those lines I'd love to see Netflix carry some Japanese one's as well.
There IS an audience for these Gizmo.

For "Sanctuary" and "Eureka" they're both great shows and it would be a fucking shame to see the only shows left be "Warehouse 13" and "Haven" for Dramatic shows. "Sanctuary" was a breath of fresh air to me when I expected it to be another alien show.
"Haven" is adapted from a Stephen King story. That's the one thing about it that leaves a bad taste in my mouth even though it's a good show.
What is Sci-Fi going to have left? Fucking "Ghost Adventures" and "Ghost Hunters"?! Both extremely low budget reality shows. I get the impression the "Ghost Hunters" don't get paid or get paid an EXTREMELY low fee. Oh wait, there's "Legend Quest".

You watch these shows at least right Kosty?!

[Kosty]

So please explain the nature of your relationship with them, including data they regularly provide to you and data you provide to them.

Well I describe my interactions with them all the time here as it occurs much of the time.

I am a long time print edition subscriber and many other professional contacts I have at the retail level read the issue completely all the time and provide feedback to me of the magazine as they find Home Media Magazine to be a trusted and valuable resource to them over time.

I had some occasional contact with the staff there in 2005 even before the HD DVD vs Blu-ray format war when I was very skeptical of Blu-ray in 2006 and 2007. Ever since 2008 when they started Blu-ray sales statistics in detail I have asked questions and had occasional informal contact with the research staff there asking questions on the Nielsen Videoscan first alert data and their weekly estimates for both DVD and Blu-ray and before it died also HD DVD. I had similar contacts with Video Business before they stopped publishing and I have on occasion had contact with other trade journals such as Twice and Consumer Electronics Daily.

I really can't describe it with any precision my relationship with HMM as its informal contact and I am not compensated in any way from them or any other industry source.

I routinely get periodic updates of some data and I ask questions on our behalf of any issues in their published data that I see and I suppose I probably am considered to be an ad hoc data checker for them over time. I generally provide links and occasional updates to them of the charts and graphs I post here using their data as a courtesy to them. Sometimes I am given access to some early data to be published in future issues and asked not to post it before publication for background.

Some on their staff know I read the entire magazine on a weekly basis and look at the sales data immediately so I'm a useful trusted resource to them when I point out any errors or things we see that are confusing. They seem to react well to that mutual good will and generally respond quickly to any issues I might bring to their attention. I rarely contact the reporters except to feel free to point out errors or ask some questions but do have more contact with the research desk on the statistics for our benefit here at HDD and AVS Forum for the sales threads.

I treat them with respect and the courtesy I provide with any professional or adult contacts I have developed over the years.

Sometimes as a courtesy I am provided with additional statistical information they do not publish for background and things like the weekly data sets for weeks they do not publish on holidays and special editions so I can have a complete data set for our use here.

When they change methodology or procedures I am given a detailed explanation when asked. Sometimes on some unusual weeks I am sometimes asked along with many others to provide some local observations of retail activity on an anecdotal basis or to provide some suggestions on some issues they are researching.

I know that things like the reference thread that sort and compile their own data in logical ways are useful over time to many people including even people at HMM as well.

I ask questions of things I see as small mistakes in the data or graphics as I see them so they have a chance to correct errors before publication. Sometimes I and many others may be shown some information or graphic and asked for input if it makes sense for their readers or how something may be improved.

Sometimes I have been asked for information on regional retail observations or to suggest some retailer contact to verify information being used in developing a story for the magazine.

My relationship with them is similar to dozens and hundreds of networking contacts I have and have developed over many years in following these issues we discuss here and other things of interest in my personal and professional life.

But all of that is informal and uncompensated and in no way do I speak for them or represent them in any way.

[Kosty]

Depends on the type of Soap, I LOVE my Korean Drama's and wish Netflix would carry more. Along those lines I'd love to see Netflix carry some Japanese one's as well.
There IS an audience for these Gizmo.

For "Sanctuary" and "Eureka" they're both great shows and it would be a fucking shame to see the only shows left be "Warehouse 13" and "Haven" for Dramatic shows. "Sanctuary" was a breath of fresh air to me when I expected it to be another alien show.
"Haven" is adapted from a Stephen King story. That's the one thing about it that leaves a bad taste in my mouth even though it's a good show.
What is Sci-Fi going to have left? Fucking "Ghost Adventures" and "Ghost Hunters"?! Both extremely low budget reality shows. I get the impression the "Ghost Hunters" don't get paid or get paid an EXTREMELY low fee. Oh wait, there's "Legend Quest".

You watch these shows at least right Kosty?!

I watch a lot of Syfy channel stuff and any thing of a science fiction nature I'm a sucker for.

Any SF movie that shows me another world is appealing to me even if it sucks in plot if I see it done in any sort of a consistent matter. I love all SF series and movies even with their quirks.

Eureka is great as is any sort of military orientated Science Fiction as military history and science fiction have been great passions in my life and my background as a military officer gives me a lot of perspective in good military SF done right.

I love any alien invasion Sf conspiracy stuff as well.

[Kosty]

So please explain the nature of your relationship with them, including data they regularly provide to you and data you provide to them.

So please explain what contact and exact relationship do you have with Netflix or any other streaming or digital cloud base service or provider?

Why are you so defensive of anything even mildly skeptical of Netflix streaming?

Why are you so familiar with the investment information and financials of Netflix?

Do you invest in Netflix or have any other stake in Netflix's financial success or do you personally have any relationship with Netflix including any and all contact with them that you have had throughout the years.

Why were you apparently banned from AVS Forum for your continued advocacy of Netflix or was it because of some undisclosed relationship with Netflix that you had?

Why are you so seemingly passionate of promoting Netflix here on this site and defensive of any negative news or analyst statements being talked about concerning Netflix?

[MrAngles]

How does the Hulu auction actually affect the environment when it comes down to it? Maybe I'm reading the article wrong, but it seems to just be saying that Netflix is taking a gamble on expanding to latin america. I would think that such an expansion would obviously require a large investment, but the article isn't expanding on why it's a risky one, so it just seems like they're talking a lot without really saying anything.

[Kosty]

How does the Hulu auction actually affect the environment when it comes down to it? Maybe I'm reading the article wrong, but it seems to just be saying that Netflix is taking a gamble on expanding to latin america. I would think that such an expansion would obviously require a large investment, but the article isn't expanding on why it's a risky one, so it just seems like they're talking a lot without really saying anything.

From the article it seems the analyst is saying the increased costs for the international roll out may limit Netflix's flexibility in some manner.

Maybe we can get some more information from the source analyst report?

Eric Wold, research director with Merriman Capital in San Francisco, said Netflix shares have dropped 26% in value since he downgraded the stock to a “neutral” rating on July 6. The analyst now is discounting further 10% to 20% Netflix’s stock valuation for 2012.

Principal culprits include burgeoning costs involved rolling out streaming service in 43 Latin American countries, Mexico and the Caribbean, and the unknown impact of a 60% monthly price increase (to $15.98 from $9.99) to select domestic subscribers beginning Sept. 1.

[GizmoDVD]

Depends on the type of Soap, I LOVE my Korean Drama's and wish Netflix would carry more. Along those lines I'd love to see Netflix carry some Japanese one's as well.
There IS an audience for these Gizmo.

For "Sanctuary" and "Eureka" they're both great shows and it would be a fucking shame to see the only shows left be "Warehouse 13" and "Haven" for Dramatic shows. "Sanctuary" was a breath of fresh air to me when I expected it to be another alien show.
"Haven" is adapted from a Stephen King story. That's the one thing about it that leaves a bad taste in my mouth even though it's a good show.
What is Sci-Fi going to have left? Fucking "Ghost Adventures" and "Ghost Hunters"?! Both extremely low budget reality shows. I get the impression the "Ghost Hunters" don't get paid or get paid an EXTREMELY low fee. Oh wait, there's "Legend Quest".

You watch these shows at least right Kosty?!

The audience for soaps is dwindling every year. The ratings have gone no where but down. People are watching other things - like reality shows - instead. They are 20-50x cheaper to produce, and are repeatable (unlike Soaps). So why continue to spend $35+ million a year when a $6-7 million show will bring in more ratings? Plus, SoapNET is going away in 2012, so that leaves less of a reason to continue when they can sell the soaps into sydication (or whatever deal they have). Yeah, I've watched the Soaps on and off for 20 years, and it's a shame to see them end. But it's time. They no longer make sense to continue when these dying Networks are scrambling for ratings and competing against 100+ other channels (and Netflix, and DVDs etc.).

I don't watch any of the shows you mentioned. Never had time to get into them.

[ack_bak]

Netflix has taken a major beating in the last month in the stock market. They peaked around $300 per share in July and are now around $220. That is a major drop.

I have noticed that Amazon has been making some plays recently to beef up their streaming. As a Prime customer, I am liking what they are doing. If they can get some more content I will say bye bye to Netflix streaming and just leverage their disc plan.

[PSound]

So please explain what contact and exact relationship do you have with Netflix or any other streaming or digital cloud base service or provider?

None.

I have zero professional relationship with any part of the Home Video infrastructure. None with the studios. None with the retailers. None with the rentailers (including Netflix). I don't have any personal relationships with anyone employed at Netflix. I have some distant contact (Facebook friends) from my work with Disney, but none at Studios.

I use a CDN for my own purposes, but that CDN does not work with the Hollywood/studios (and it not even based in the US).


I follow this because I want to. I discuss the facts around Netflix, Vudu, etc because I want to. If there is data that is in conflict with other known data, I will bring it to light as I believe that discussion based on false or made-up information is not a positive. It is also why I vehemently oppose those who post or publish false or made-up information (as Home Media Magazine did).


And unlike you, absolutely all my facts and info come from public data. I do not get data that others do not, as my only access is public sources. I do not provide fact checking to journalistic organizations. If I did, I would disclose that clearly in my signature as that clearly creates an inevitable conflict of interest.

[PSound]

I routinely get periodic updates of some data and I ask questions on our behalf of any issues in their published data that I see and I suppose I probably am considered to be an ad hoc data checker for them over time.

Sometimes I am given access to some early data to be published in future issues and asked not to post it before publication for background.

I rarely contact the reporters except to feel free to point out errors or ask some questions but do have more contact with the research desk on the statistics for our benefit here at HDD and AVS Forum for the sales threads.

Sometimes as a courtesy I am provided with additional statistical information they do not publish for background and things like the weekly data sets for weeks they do not publish on holidays and special editions so I can have a complete data set for our use here.

When they change methodology or procedures I am given a detailed explanation when asked. Sometimes on some unusual weeks I am sometimes asked along with many others to provide some local observations of retail activity on an anecdotal basis or to provide some suggestions on some issues they are researching.

Sometimes I and many others may be shown some information or graphic and asked for input if it makes sense for their readers or how something may be improved.

Sometimes I have been asked for information on regional retail observations or to suggest some retailer contact to verify information being used in developing a story for the magazine.

In other words, they provide you with data and you provide them with data and analysis, including that which impacts their publication.

You have a professional relationship with Home Media Magazine.

[mikemorel]

In other words, they provide you with data and you provide them with data and analysis, including that which impacts their publication.

You have a professional relationship with Home Media Magazine.

You are assuming that what he says in those posts is true. There is zero evidence of that.