2011 Blu-ray Sales Metrics Stats: Weekly-HMM Nielsen/Videoscan Quarterly-Rentrak/DEG

[Rob71]

I don't look at any of your charts.

Not surprised actually. With what you post on a near constant basis, I'd be worried if you did.

[Kosty]

That is generally true, but certainly you don't expect 20% (or even 30%) growth for Blu-ray sell through this year to be perceived as strong. Even 30% growth would result in Blu-ray sell through at about $2.3 billion for 2011. There is no way that can be perceived as "strong" growth.

I think its going to be larger than those numbers, but its not only the ratios that are important its the absolute magnitude of the growth as well. Its also going to be more important when we get the Rentrak/DEG data which will also include rental income growth for Blu-ray which will be a boost to the final figures as the growth in Netflix and Redbox Blu-ray rental revenues will be much greater in the 2011 to 2010 comparison than they were in the 2010 to 2009 figures.

What was the percentage difference in growth at the end of April 2010 and the end of 2010?

I really don't know as we have now revised much of the Q1 2010 numbers and I have not recalculated the data 2010 to 2009 as of yet. I'll do that soon for the YTD data and will give the running best total for the end of March Q1 data set. But thats not so much a really projectable figure anyway as it seems the Blu-ray 2010 seasonal pattern was a bit abnormal with a stronger than usual Q1 and a poorer than usual Q2 and Q3 that I would contend is unlikely to repeat this year.

I'll try to provide a running Q1 2010 and running YTD comparison estimates today or over the weekend when I finish the data chart conversion to the new 1-52 week sequence and shift all the historical quarterly chart data by a week to match the new sequence. Its a bit of a PITA and I have not had time to complete that task and double check it all before I post it up. I'm planning to have it up by Monday.

I know that is not an end-all comparison, but it reflects that growth results now do matter. At the end of April, we will be a 1/3rd of the way through 2011. I find it hard to believe we will even be at 30% growth at that time (and fully expect it to be closer to 20%).

Well at this time we only have data through mid March not the end of April so thats still 6 or 7 weeks before we even have that much data.

But even then , the actual calendar days elapsed would show less of the yearly total than you imply as the seasonal holiday 4Q results are basically at a two or three times pace than the rest of the year. So even by the end of April, that 4 months of data (we now only have 2 1/2 months) does not represent 1/3rd of the way of the total projected yearly revenues, it only would be about 4/15ths or less of the annual results as the last three months of the year basically count double or treble in the yearly trends.

Right now we basically have 2.5/15ths or only about 1/6th of the yearly trend data to work with. Lots of the year is still upcoming and its really too soon to make any projections based on the type of releases that we have seen so far this year. We will have much better data to work with by the time we get to the end of April data about six weeks from now.

I think its going to be much higher than 20% by that time. That would mean that things would decrease substantially in the next six weeks and I do not think that will be the case at all.

It will be interesting to see how things turn out.

[Kosty]

I don't look at any of your charts.

That hardly shocks me.

You don't actually need data or information to post the stuff you do anyway and actual facts to be considered would just end up being inconvenient to you anyway.

Unlike you, I actually try to use the best information and data available for my assessments and commentary to ground my commentary in reality.

Its a shame though. You should look at them as they do show the best available data we have and its not all rosy for Blu-ray. The slowdown in the Q1 YTY growth for Blu-ray is clearly seen as well as the failure of Blu-ray to fully cover the total DVD attrition this year as well as the long term attrition in DVD revenues and DVD+Blu-ray revenues over time. You should be able to use some of them to suit your gloom and doom agenda if you actually wanted to discuss the facts instead of just saying stuff that is not based on the actual situation.

HMM is the source for the information for the most part and as the industry trade publication that covers that industry its the best data we have. Its not my data, I only present it visually so we actually have some data and evidence to provide some common ground.


That also does not surprise me that you would not like to look at the historical charts as they tend to refute your gloom and doom BS as the growth trends over time are undeniable.

[Kosty]

I don't look at any of your charts.

Yet you have posted already 252 times in this thread this year and thousands of times in its previous versions.

Thats the entire subject of this thread is to discuss that data and other metrics on Blu-ray's growth, so its just amazingly telling that you admit that the actual data and facts do not matter to you.

That says a lot about your credibility and motivations in posting here in this thread and in other places here if you say that the data does not matter to you and you do not even bother to look at it.

Of course that hardly surprises most of us based on your posting history.

[Kosty]

Originally Posted by Kosty
Shocking that you have another gloom and doom prediction that will again be proven wrong.

Any evidence to support your projection?

Any to support yours?

I have charts and data that I try to update each week to provide us with the best available data to aid in our discussion that help me understand the trending.

Which you say you don't bother to look at.

[GizmoDVD]

I don't look at your charts for a reason. I explained as much over a PM that you ignored. We can discuss more via PM if you like, otherwise quoting me and responding several times won't result you with any explanation.

[Rob71]

I don't look at your charts for a reason. I explained as much over a PM that you ignored. We can discuss more via PM if you like, otherwise quoting me and responding several times won't result you with any explanation.

You brought it up.

[Kosty]

I don't look at your charts for a reason. I explained as much over a PM that you ignored. We can discuss more via PM if you like, otherwise quoting me and responding several times won't result you with any explanation.

What PM?

Your motivations here always seem quite clear anyway. Besides you also seem like you don't follow the long term trends of the HMM data anyway so if all you do is drop in an comment on the weekly graphs without any perspective shows that you are more interested in entertaining yourself in stirring up the natives here than you are in seriously discussing the trends and data.

If all you do is bitch moan and complain without caring to gather information that puts the weekly numbers into a longer term context then that says a lot.

[Pro-bassoonist]

I don't look at your charts for a reason.

You could not possibly have a valid reason.

The thread title is very clear: Sales Metrics Stats.

If you don't look at Kosty's stats, and since you are not posting any stats to refute his observations, why are you in this thread?

Pro-B

[Rob71]

You could not possibly have a valid reason.

The thread title is very clear: Sales Metrics Stats.

If you don't look at Kosty's stats, and since you are not posting any stats to refute his observations, why are you in this thread?

Pro-B

My guess is with the announced titles being released, i.e. Platoon, Scarface, Once Upon a Time in the West to name a few we are going to start seeing desperation setting in. Even moreso than usual. I myself am awaiting more than a few of the Echo Bridge, Mills Creek and Vivendi titles up for release. Or are we already crapping on those site unseen?

[Taffy]

My guess is with the announced titles being released, i.e. Platoon, Scarface, Once Upon a Time in the West to name a few we are going to start seeing desperation setting in. Even moreso than usual. I myself am awaiting more than a few of the Echo Bridge, Mills Creek and Vivendi titles up for release. Or are we already crapping on those site unseen?

Hmmmmmm.....Platoon, Scarface and Once Upon a Time in the West have all enjoyed extensive runs on broadcast HD channels over the past several years and have already played to millions upon millions of sat/cab/telco HD subscribers. So there release on Blu ray is like, hooooooo....hummmmmm, so what else is new.

Now...what would get me excited would be if these titles, and many others, were converted to 3D...than released on 2D/3D Blu ray.

[vikingfan]

Platoon, Scarface and Once Upon a Time in the West have all enjoyed extensive runs on broadcast HD channels over the past several years

And they've looked and sounded like shit.

[Rob71]

And they've looked and sounded like shit.

Yeah, and for all his talk he now has no access to them. No, somehow being able to actually own them without relying on a monthly fee to a provider to keep my collection viable is a better proposition from my point of view.

[Kosty]

Hmmmmmm.....Platoon, Scarface and Once Upon a Time in the West have all enjoyed extensive runs on broadcast HD channels over the past several years and have already played to millions upon millions of sat/cab/telco HD subscribers. So there release on Blu ray is like, hooooooo....hummmmmm, so what else is new.

Now...what would get me excited would be if these titles, and many others, were converted to 3D...than released on 2D/3D Blu ray.

What has this to do with Blu-ray sales metrics?

Thank you for once again spamming this thread with your off topic nonsense. Its nice to know that when they eventually come around again in the future you can record them again as any past showings of them don't matter to you as you lost your access to them when you switched away from DISH and lost access to your recordings.

BTW, the mention of those titles on Blu-ray is appropriate as they are new to Blu-ray releases and obviously more prominent Blu-ray catalog titles will have an impact on future Blu-ray sales.

Again, thank you Captain Obvious for your observation that older theatrical movies have already been shown on cable and sat. Duh.

[vinnie97]

Fucking hell, Taffy, those titles converted to 3D? What a hideous idea.