View Poll Results: What will the weekly revenue be?

Voters
23. You may not vote on this poll
  • $125 million + (81% or greater growth)

    0 0%
  • $118-124 million (71-80% growth)

    1 4.35%
  • $111-117 million (61-70% growth)

    2 8.70%
  • $105-110 million (51-60% growth)

    2 8.70%
  • $98-104 million (41-50% growth)

    3 13.04%
  • $90-97 million (31-40% growth)

    3 13.04%
  • $84-89 million (21- 30% growth)

    6 26.09%
  • $77-83 million (11- 20% growth)

    3 13.04%
  • $70-76 million (1-10% growth)

    1 4.35%
  • $69 million (0% growth or less)

    2 8.70%
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  1. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by comixguru View Post
    Just doesn't seem like the Black Friday deals this year are capable of more than a modest bump over last year.
    From what I understand the major retailers are going to have at least double the amount of Blu-ray promotional inventory pushed to them in the raw number of units included in the promotional packs.

    Most of those final decisions on what inventory to have on hand were probably made around the last week of September or the first weeks of October about the time Iron Man 2 came out with $50 M in Blu-ray sales and a 52% Nielsen Videoscan Blu-ray marketshare. So that would tend to bias those inventory and selection and promotional activity decisions upward because of that event.

    But like I said before, everybody knows the Blu-ray hardware and movie units sold is going to be much higher, how much higher is an open question. The other question is how much the lower prices offset the gains in units sold.

    One thing to consider is that the deals to you and I may seem about the same or that we have already collected those older titles, but to new Blu-ray hardware buyers that week or people who bought into Blu-ray in the past year, these are the real first heavily discounted set of Blu-ray titles they have seen. Anecdotally, I know of quite a few people that are excited about the 60 Blu-ray titles , some yet unknown that are going to be available at Walmart for $5.


    FWIW YMMV
    .
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  2. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
    From what I understand the major retailers are going to have at least double the amount of Blu-ray promotional inventory pushed to them in the raw number of units included in the promotional packs.Most of those final decisions on what inventory to have on hand were probably made around the last week of September or the first weeks of October about the time Iron Man 2 came out with $50 M in Blu-ray sales and a 52% Nielsen Videoscan Blu-ray marketshare. So that would tend to bias those inventory and selection and promotional activity decisions upward because of that event.

    But like I said before, everybody knows the Blu-ray hardware and movie units sold is going to be much higher, how much higher is an open question. The other question is how much the lower prices offset the gains in units sold.

    One thing to consider is that the deals to you and I may seem about the same or that we have already collected those older titles, but to new Blu-ray hardware buyers that week or people who bought into Blu-ray in the past year, these are the real first heavily discounted set of Blu-ray titles they have seen. Anecdotally, I know of quite a few people that are excited about the 60 Blu-ray titles , some yet unknown that are going to be available at Walmart for $5.


    FWIW YMMV
    So basically the studios are taking a hit on this then right?
  3. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by chipvideo View Post
    So basically the studios are taking a hit on this then right?
    As usual. They hope *chuckles* that all these cheap players will get people to *chuckle* start their collection over - in Blu-rays! We all know how that worked out for them in 2009...2008...2007...2006. Consumers won't go for it. They'll buy a crap load of $5 BDs, and ignore the New Releases. But hey, those BD players make excellent upconverters and Netflix machines! I just got in the Disney S470 deal so my sister can now enjoy MKVs as well as Netflix and DVD. Anyone want to buy a LG BD370?
  4. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kosty View Post
    From what I understand the major retailers are going to have at least double the amount of Blu-ray promotional inventory pushed to them in the raw number of units included in the promotional packs.
    Are you planning on voting in this poll or your own? I don't see the $140+ option needed for the 2 billion goal.
  5. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by GizmoDVD View Post
    As usual. They hope *chuckles* that all these cheap players will get people to *chuckle* start their collection over - in Blu-rays! We all know how that worked out for them in 2009...2008...2007...2006. Consumers won't go for it. They'll buy a crap load of $5 BDs, and ignore the New Releases. But hey, those BD players make excellent upconverters and Netflix machines! I just got in the Disney S470 deal so my sister can now enjoy MKVs as well as Netflix and DVD. Anyone want to buy a LG BD370?
    Please! You know very well there were no expectations of people re-buying their collections. Bluray was created to complement DVD. Not replace it. Get that through your head!
    Roku2, Roku3, Samsung 1600, Insignia BR W/Netflix!
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  6. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Malanthius View Post
    Please! You know very well there were no expectations of people re-buying their collections. Bluray was created to complement DVD. Not replace it. Get that through your head!
    Oh, right. I forgot that's what they wanted when they created Blu-ray and HD DVD. Just a compliment. Much like how Netflix "compliments" Blu-ray (or the other way around...)

    Do they really believe that? I mean, I know they have changed their tune since the horrific Q2/Q3 and no Q4, but I wonder if they actually believe that's why billions of dollars were invested - to get people to buy New Releases and 'good' catalog only.
  7. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by GizmoDVD View Post
    As usual. They hope *chuckles* that all these cheap players will get people to *chuckle* start their collection over - in Blu-rays! We all know how that worked out for them in 2009...2008...2007...2006. Consumers won't go for it. They'll buy a crap load of $5 BDs, and ignore the New Releases. But hey, those BD players make excellent upconverters and Netflix machines! I just got in the Disney S470 deal so my sister can now enjoy MKVs as well as Netflix and DVD. Anyone want to buy a LG BD370?
    Is it region free?
  8. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by chipvideo View Post
    Is it region free?
    Nope. Only the HD DVD/Blu-ray combo ones are Region free (with a hack). The BD only stuff was Region 1/A locked.
  9. #24
    The biggest issue we are going to have is Walmart. By far they are the biggest store pushing Blu-Ray on BF and they are not counted by HMM (HMM estimates). We won't really know how big BF was until we get the DEG numbers.
  10. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Malanthius View Post
    Please! You know very well there were no expectations of people re-buying their collections. Bluray was created to complement DVD. Not replace it. Get that through your head!
    Its ok. Even though no one is defending that notion cause it never happened. Its fine that you guys can bring it up so you have this made up argument amongst yourselves.

    Remember when you thought digital sales would surpass DVD by now?

    ..jk you never said that cause that would mean you actually set a solid goal post you couldnt move.
  11. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by ack_bak View Post
    The biggest issue we are going to have is Walmart. By far they are the biggest store pushing Blu-Ray on BF and they are not counted by HMM (HMM estimates). We won't really know how big BF was until we get the DEG numbers.
    Thats not accurate. The weekly revenue estimate that we get from HMM on the pie chart does include an estimate for Walmart. They take the Nielsen Videoscan first alert numbers and crunch them in a model to estimate and account for Walmart DVD and Blur-ray revenues for the week. Its just that they have to be quite conservative in that estimate and they have been about a 17% undercount underestimation than what the Rentrak/DEG numbers have estimated in their quarterly report. So there DVD and Blu-ray revenue estimates and the revenue percentage pie chart do include Walmart sales for the week (but probably underestimated)

    The unit marketshare numbers and the marketshare numbers for the individual titles on the Top 20 Sellers and Top 20 Blu-ray charts though are straight off the preliminary Nielsen Videoscan first alert report and are calculated without Walmart electronic point of sales transactional input. Those Blu-ray unit marketshare numbers and the index numbers on the chart are calculated only from Nielsen Videoscan first alert reporting retailers (basically everybody except Walmart and Sam's Club)
    .
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  12. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by GizmoDVD View Post
    Are you planning on voting in this poll or your own? I don't see the $140+ option needed for the 2 billion goal.
    I plan to vote on this poll.
    .
    "A lot of good arguments are spoiled by some fool who knows what he is talking about." - Miguel de Unamuno

    "I understand the concept of optimism. But I think with me what you get is a lack of cynicism." - Tom Hanks

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  13. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by chipvideo View Post
    So basically the studios are taking a hit on this then right?
    Well its a hit off the MSRP or normal margins. But not from a production cost or loss from a studio standpoint. Its a normal thing now that the studios will not only select a mix of titles to be heavily discounted here but for some retailers to extend that by selling some titles as loss leaders or at cost.
    .
    "A lot of good arguments are spoiled by some fool who knows what he is talking about." - Miguel de Unamuno

    "I understand the concept of optimism. But I think with me what you get is a lack of cynicism." - Tom Hanks

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  14. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Malanthius View Post
    Please! You know very well there were no expectations of people re-buying their collections. Bluray was created to complement DVD. Not replace it. Get that through your head!
    Catalog sales for Blu-ray as well as DVD this week here will be much higher than normal.

    Thats one of the issues that people are looking at is how deep and wide the sales are for Blu-ray among not only the promotional titles but also the skus that are not as heavily discounted.

    BTW, as an anecdote, my local Best Buys all just revised their media sections and actually expanded the Blu-ray sections. They moved them more to the front. added an additional 2 sided full full of Blu-ray facings and now have three distinct sections of Blu-ray new releases, Blu-ray values and Blu-ray titles from A-Z.
    .
    "A lot of good arguments are spoiled by some fool who knows what he is talking about." - Miguel de Unamuno

    "I understand the concept of optimism. But I think with me what you get is a lack of cynicism." - Tom Hanks

    follow me on Twitter
  15. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by Malanthius View Post
    I'm going to wait to see how Black Friday does before I give my prediction.
    Quote Originally Posted by GizmoDVD View Post
    I like that idea. I'll give by 2010 prediction in February 2011.
    I'm not going to make a prediction until we get numbers from Black Friday for the week ending 11/28/10. There is a lot of uncertainty on just how large the Blu-ray gains will be at that time. But once we get that number, there will be less uncertainty on what the high volume week will be.

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