Poll: Digital downloads replace physical HDM or supplament?

[crazzeto]

So, now that there's a whole digital downloads forum... What role do people think HD digital downloads will play in the future? Will they completely replace physical media very soon? Or perhaps in the distant future? Or do you just see digital downloads replacing your trips to block buster and thats it... Personally, I see it in a rentals only catagory, I don't want to rely on it as my primary source for HD content.

[tranzparentl]

I voted for replacement in 10 years but I think it will be sooner than that. But no way it will completely erase physical media sooner than that.

Look at CDs. I consider digital distribution to already have killed off the CD, but of course you can still buy them in stores. (Just not many people do)

So i see a similar situation to that in a couple years.

[rasputin]

The way I process digital pictures from my camera is : 1) take flash memory card out of camera, 2) put card into machine in camera shop, 3) download pictures from card, 4) select pictures and sizes to print, 5) pay and pick up pictures later.

Buying a film in the future may be a similar procedure once high capacity USB 3.0 devices are available - 1) insert your HD memory card, 2) select film to download, 3) pay, 4) download to card, 5) take card home and play from card directly or copy to hard disk.

USB 3.0 supports 4.8Gbit/Sec or 600Mb/sec, so a typical DVD would take 14 seconds to download a 8.5Gb file or 50 seconds for a 30Gb HD movie.

I can see something like this happening over the next 5 years. Typically I rent 95% of all films, and only buy the occasional film.

[crazzeto]

Originally Posted by rasputin

The way I process digital pictures from my camera is : 1) take flash memory card out of camera, 2) put card into machine in camera shop, 3) download pictures from card, 4) select pictures and sizes to print, 5) pay and pick up pictures later.

Buying a film in the future may be a similar procedure once high capacity USB 3.0 devices are available - 1) insert your HD memory card, 2) select film to download, 3) pay, 4) download to card, 5) take card home and play from card directly or copy to hard disk.

USB 3.0 supports 4.8Gbit/Sec or 600Mb/sec, so a typical DVD would take 14 seconds to download a 8.5Gb file or 50 seconds for a 30Gb HD movie.

I can see something like this happening over the next 5 years. Typically I rent 95% of all films, and only buy the occasional film.

Not a bad idea, I've already seen DVD rental kiosks so that makes sense... The only thing I wouldn't like is a lack of supplamentals.

[jrutz]

You have a big gap between 2-9 years where digital distribution will occur. I say within the next five. For the naysayers out there, it's already happening, albeit in its infancy. Too many companies are heavily getting into the space for it to be a long-term bet.

[crazzeto]

Originally Posted by jrutz

You have a big gap between 2-9 years where digital distribution will occur. I say within the next five. For the naysayers out there, it's already happening, albeit in its infancy. Too many companies are heavily getting into the space for it to be a long-term bet.

Yeah, didn't think about that until the poll was created.... It's my first one so I hope you guys can forgive... I guess assume near future certainly includes anything in the next 5 years, or for consistancy up to 9 like I probably should have done... Sorry

[voidchalice]

...the studios can plan to do.

a) what if they decide to fix the HD downloads to 720p, leaving physical discs and VOD to have the 1080p resolution? (infrastructure/bandwidth would be their excuse)
b) what if they decide to have a standard on downloads so that CE manufacturers can participate in the portable player market? i'm not so sure they want to let Apple or MS dictate distribution methods similar to what happened with iTunes and iPod.
c) what if they plan to ween us off DVD by offering SD Divx files along with the Blu-ray discs? then Sony introduces BD-Audio with 256 mp3 files to replace the CD.

just what ifs, but are possible with how the studios think...

[zacman]

Originally Posted by voidchalice

...the studios can plan to do.
a) what if they decide to fix the HD downloads to 720p, leaving physical discs and VOD to have the 1080p resolution? (infrastructure/bandwidth would be their excuse)

It's all about money. They will offer both for downloads: 720p for 2.99USD, 1080p for 3.99USD. That's not possible with physical discs and therefore an advantage for the studios to get more money. Same with extras: just pay an additional 0.99USD to watch the Making Of, or only 2.99USD to get all features...

b) what if they decide to have a standard on downloads so that CE manufacturers can participate in the portable player market? i'm not so sure they want to let Apple or MS dictate distribution methods similar to what happened with iTunes and iPod.

Already happened. You can only transfer the movies you rented at iTunes to an ipod or iphone. And itunes jnow has support from all studios. Steve Jobs is just a genius: He just makes contracts with all the studios when nobody thinks that downloads will happen in the near future. Then mass market starts downloading like hell, Apple has a monopoly and can dictate prices to the studios. Same story with the music industry and iTMS.

c) what if they plan to ween us off DVD by offering SD Divx files along with the Blu-ray discs? then Sony introduces BD-Audio with 256 mp3 files to replace the CD.

FOX already ships DVD with ipod compatible digital media on the disc. I think it's only a matter of time until the files will be included on the BD.

[Reverend Blu]

Originally Posted by voidchalice

...the studios can plan to do.

a) what if they decide to fix the HD downloads to 720p, leaving physical discs and VOD to have the 1080p resolution? (infrastructure/bandwidth would be their excuse)
b) what if they decide to have a standard on downloads so that CE manufacturers can participate in the portable player market? i'm not so sure they want to let Apple or MS dictate distribution methods similar to what happened with iTunes and iPod.
c) what if they plan to ween us off DVD by offering SD Divx files along with the Blu-ray discs? then Sony introduces BD-Audio with 256 mp3 files to replace the CD.

just what ifs, but are possible with how the studios think...

That sounds real nice for studios to double and triple dip:
Watch at the theater

Get it fast in 720p online.

And pay again for the Bluray version with 1080p, truehd audio and three hours of extra main movie content(no not extras! three hours of the main movie!) as say think of both the theater and online downloads as the Readers Digest version with just the bare bones movie with a lot of scenes cut.

And most folks will go: there are three hours missing that we did not see in the theaters? Where did you say the bluray movies were? zooooom!




The bluray version with the "Directors cut" version of six hours that most studios will say was just too long to play in theaters

So for real I think downloads are just going to be another cash cow for many studios.