Discs Will Never Die!

[RunnerX]

http://www.betanews.com/article/Anal...die/1199853352

Ten Reasons Why Discs Will Never Die
1. Consumers aren't ready for it. Look at it this way: next year is the conversion to digital television, and the industry and the government are printing out 35 million coupons for the people who still use rabbit ears or a rooftop antenna to get their TV signals. How many consumers, other than the leading edge, are going to have the type of hardware and software that will allow them to rely solely on streaming video?

2. Sites aren't ready for it. Even now, when there's big events like Cyber Monday, Web sites can't handle it, and that's just for shopping. How much of a load is streaming video going to be? A good test will be to see what happens with the Summer Olympics this year. NBC and Microsoft announced plans to stream 3000 hours of coverage for every sport. www.nbcolympics.com has streaming video with good performance now, but let's see what happens during the gymnastics finals.

3. Infrastructure isn't ready for it. How many consumers have enough bandwidth to support it? How many consumers even have access to that much bandwidth? According to the National Association of State CIOs, you need 12 Mbps to even start getting IPTV, and what you really need is 24 Mbps to 100 Mbps. I have the fastest consumer Internet service possible in my area, and it clocks at 214 Kb. I downloaded the Microsoft Silverlight software that will be used for the Olympics, and tried to check out the CES coverage on Microsoft's site, and it paused every few seconds.

4. Providers aren't ready for it. Comcast has already taken heat for what's called bandwidth throttling, or cutting consumers off when they download "too much" data (and the "too much" isn't defined), but surely many other providers are doing it as well. How quickly are they going to be able to handle it when everyone is doing it?

5. With all the talk of on-demand video, do we really believe that we will be able to see any video at any time? I happen to be fond of the Icelandic film director Hrafn Gunnlaugsson; am I going to be able to find his more recent movies?

6. How's the pricing going to work? Wal-Mart (which, incidentally, discontinued its movie download service) charged $12.88 to $19.88 for a movie and $1.96 for a TV episode. If my daughter wants to watch Rudolph, the Red-Nosed Reindeer five times in a row (in July - and am I going to be able to download it in July?), how much is that going to cost me? Am I really going to pay $10 for every night when I flop in front of the tube after dinner and manage to stay up for Jay Leno?

7. There are some movies, that, ahem, we'd just as soon people not know that we like to watch and that we might like to have on disc so we can hide them. Yes, it's true that such content is available and popular on the Internet now but if all the video coverage is coming from the same provider, how does one maintain one's discretion?

8. Owning a disc is just simpler. There's plenty of Disney channels, but every parent I know has a rack full of Disney videos anyway, which they pass around among themselves, send with their kids to overnights, etc.

9. Let's say that there's a way for consumers to keep the content they get through streaming media. How are they going to manage it? Everyone I know with a TiVo has it full of stuff they never get around to watching and then it fills up and they can't record any more. What happens if a power failure or disk problem zaps the library?

10. Megatrends author John Naisbitt postulated the concept of "high tech, high touch," which stated that with increasing technology, people feel the need to increase the human response. They want something tangible they can hold and touch. People still buy vinyl records, for heaven's sake. Heck, they still buy books.

[MrE]

can you space them out for us so it is easier to read? it just looks like one BIG paragraph.

[Kotatsu Neko]

And people said the iTunes music store would never take off because people wanted physical CDs.

The writing is on the wall for physical media. This isn't something that's going to happen over night obviously, but the momentum is building.

[rigger29]

I personally dont want digital downloads i like having my discs and things looks gd on my shelf

[andycl]

I don't know, music and video are two very different formats. Downloading a 5mb music track is a lot easier than a 5 or 10GB compressed HD video.

Also the broadband networks would have to be up to scratch everywhere for this to really take off.

[Kotatsu Neko]

Originally Posted by andycl

I don't know, music and video are two very different formats. Downloading a 5mb music track is a lot easier than a 5 or 10GB compressed HD video.

Also the broadband networks would have to be up to scratch everywhere for this to really take off.

People have short memories. It wasn't long ago when we were all on dial up and downloading a music track took forever. Technology has a habit of getting better over time.

[romper]

From the Seattle PI this morning, Just the important part of the article:

Comcast to give broadband a boost
CEO to show new ultra-high-speed Internet service
By DEBORAH YAO
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

PHILADELPHIA -- Cable companies aren't known as nimble innovators, but Comcast Corp. is out to change that perception this year with ultra-high-speed Internet service, more high-definition content and gadgets that link video, phone and broadband services.

"We're about innovation and having the best network," Chief Executive Brian Roberts said in a preview of his speech at the Consumer Electronics show on Tuesday.

Roberts is expected to demonstrate a technology that delivers up to 160 megabits of data per second: It will allow him to download a high-definition copy of "Batman Begins" in four minutes. The technology, DOCSIS 3.0, will start rolling out this year.

[Bobbin]

You forget about renting movies to friends. You don't rent music, but I rent movies a lot from my buddies and that would basically be over.

[wentwj]

Originally Posted by Kotatsu Neko

People have short memories. It wasn't long ago when we were all on dial up and downloading a music track took forever. Technology has a habit of getting better over time.

You're right. There's a lot of people still on dial up, and with that said, internet speeds as a whole haven't gone up that fast. The US has a notoriously slow network.

It would also seem that people here aren't following the whole net neutrality debate. This is EXACTLY what the ISPs are claiming will force them to either charge the consumer more or to charge the content providers. Hell, in the UK they are worried about the slowdown of the general internet after the iPlayer launch from the BBC.

The internet speeds that most of us get around here are dependent on our neighbors only surfing the web. If everyone on a street block goes and maxes their connection, everyone will get slower (at least with most kinds of internet). Now imagine if EVERYONE had to stream an HD video file EVERYTIME they wanted to watch a movie?

Our hardware is nowhere near close yet, our infrastructure is possibly closer because it can piggy back on the online music stores, but were still a way off.

I don't think discs will NEVER die. But I think we are a long ways off, both technically, and in convincing consumers thats the way to go. Remember, there's still a fair number of people who are computer illiterate, and can't program a VCR.

[pazuzu]

Besides speed there is a desire for people to have large collections. You can have a massive music library of 400 cd's, with lets say an average of 10 songs at 5mg per song and it will only take up 20gb, now i see people on here with massive movie collections that put my small 500 dvd collection to shame. HD movies take up 10gb of space (and that is being conservative). so my movie collection would require 5tb of space. Now imagine all those people on here who have 5,000 dvd's. The space required would be MASSIVE.

The disc will not die, but digital downloads will become popular....maybe in a rental aspect only, not purchase. It is not the same as the music industry.

[jrstinkfish]

Maybe I'm a special case, but I've found that while I don't mind not having a physical CD, I DO mind not having a DVD. I've got a friend who downloads lots of movies, and he burns them as a DVD and he's fine with that, has a nice little disc book where he can flip through his burned movies. There's just something about having the case and artwork on the DVD that adds to the experience. I know a lot of people like this too, they proudly display their collections like they're works of art. I don't think downloads are going to make a dent really, not for a decade or so.

[A_Gorilla]

Originally Posted by Kotatsu Neko

People have short memories. It wasn't long ago when we were all on dial up and downloading a music track took forever. Technology has a habit of getting better over time.

e all know that, the question is HOW LONG. Even compressed an HD movie would take about lets say 10GB of space. With current internet speeds at they are, it would take about 6-8 hours to download one movie. With my 15Mbps FiOS, its shorted to about 4.5 hours, still a hell of a long time to wait for a movie. And where are the special features? Until inter connections shorten that time to at least 1 hour, Downloads will never REPLACE physical media. They may COEXIST, like they are doing now, however

[Bulldog]

I don't think downloads are going to make a dent really, not for a decade or so.

Dude, iTunes has singlehandidly made the industry do a turnaround even with pirating options available. Their music and movie #s have gone through the roof, people want stuff when they want it just look at DVR's success to see this. Not to mention that TV Guide is not even around as it originally was. You give people the option to have stuff when they want it with the least inconvenience, they'll choose it (see Netflix). Once harddrives in autos become mainstream, say good-bye to CDs, just watch. And if they allow in-car downloading of songs heard on the radio at some point, we'll look back and laugh at the thought of having to find a store just to purchase music.

[Micker]

People are going crazy with VoD or movie downloads replacing HDM. First of all, VoD and downloads have been around for awhile and DVD is surviving just fine. Second, the technology isn't even close to allowing us to download High def movies with lossless audio, that is many many years away.

VoD and downloads effect MOVIE RENTALS, not movie purchases. People who BUY movies, want a hard copy of it. I want to be able to share it, trade it, sell it, watch it where and when I want etc.. Downloads are WAY WAY too limited.

Ask yourself a question, the question I have asked several people. Would you prefer to have a movie on a disc or a file on a hard drive?? No one has ever said a file, and they cringe at the thought of it. I don't think one person on this board would prefer downloads over physical media. Downloads look good on paper, but the people will demand a hard copy always.

[jrstinkfish]

Well, I wasn't talking about music, I was talking about movie downloads. Downloading a 60MB CD is a bit different than downloading a 20GB movie.