HD DVD & Blu-ray: Someday Obsolete, Or Here to Stay?

[BanthaPoodoo]

ONE of these great formats will eventually take over the DVD market, and rightly so. With the phase out of SD 4:3 televisions, and the increased saturation of HDTVs into American households, and other HD technology fast becoming more and more affordable, people are eventually going to realize that they could be getting so much more out of their HDTV. So they might be willing to replace a decent chunk of their DVD collection with either HD DVD or BD, just as many folk replaced much of their VHS collection with DVD. People were willing because the technology and PQ difference between VHS and DVD were so apparent. But with 1080p resolution as the new standard for home theater excellence, a new fromat was required... enter HD DVD and Blu-ray, and an interesting problem.

How long untill these new formats are replaced? At what point is enough enough? I don't relish the idea of replacing my fledgling HD movie collection the way I'm replacing some of my DVDs. But that brings me to CDs and how they've been going strong (in the consumer market) for around 20 years and are in no danger of being replaced (in 2004, the annual worldwide sales of CD-Audio, CD-ROM, and CD-R reached about 30 billion discs). Why? Sure, there are other types of formats out there that are "better" for audio playback, but the CD is viewed as sufficient, and IMHO, it is. Now, with the incredible beauty of a true 1080p picture, especially one that has been carefully produced, will the heir to DVD (whomever it may be), be sufficient in the way that CDs have been sufficient, to become the movie format of choice for say the next 20-30 years? Personally, I'm torn on this... but overall, I would have to say that I hope it is. What do you think?

[Spideybat]

I think both formats will be around for quite some time. Standard DVDs still has a very long life ahead. Not that many people are ready to, or simply cannot upgrade there TV's and DVD players. VCRs are still around. It's going to be a long transition. The people in this forum are the minority of what is in the average home.

[Sarang]

After HD DVD and BR we will have HVD which will FINALLY allow us to watch old and new movies as well as series shot on film at their full resolution. After this it will stop except for some occasional double dipping but all the studios will then need to rely on new releases.
I'm hoping in 15-20 years we see HVD's come into the market with the displays that can handle the high resolution they will put out.
That's because with audio people have AWFUL hearing, most at least. Picture everyone notices a difference though, unless they're blind as bats.

[Majestikk]

These new formats always suck in the beginning

[firelizard]

You know what is interesting is a format will eventually win HD war, but we will still be a many years behind Japan when it comes to HDTV.

[illegalprelude]

Originally Posted by Majestikk

These new formats always suck in the beginning

that almost had to do with the thread



Yea. these new formats will be here to stay. I think they might be the last format to truelly be around before we get into the age of streaming

[Bioevil087]

As someone who is studying digital cinema I think I can help. You see we have just created a camera(that can be mass produced), that cam shoot at the quality of 35mm(4K resolution). It is known as RED (there are websites out there), and it will be on sale soon.
The next step is called UHDV(Ultra High Definition Video) and it is 8K resolution. It is only in the prototype stage using 4 regular 2K cinema projectors and 4 2k cameras working together to capture and display the images. So HVD will work for 35mm prints and for 4K but eventually it will be replaced until we have reached the limit of the optic nerve.

[Philnerd]

I'm pretty sure that 1080P is going to be it for the home video market for a long, long time. For one, the broadcast industry has spent and will still spend gobs of money moving from SD to HD. That industry is NOT going to upgrade again anytime soon.

The other truth is that 1080P can hold so much detail that it stands up to theatrical projection. If 1080P can look phenominal on a 30ft tall screen, I'm pretty sure it'll look great on 5-10ft televisions.

4K cameras like RED will be used to create the highest quality images possible for theatrical releases, but in the home I really think 4K is overkill. Doesn't mean the studios and CE manufacturers might not try and push 4K home video on us at some point, but since 1080P (actually 720P and 1080i) are the broadcast formats for the foreseeable future, 4K products would be limited to mostly high-end dedicated movie systems.

[Bioevil087]

Actually 1080p isn't theater quality(by that I mean standard as people have played 720p movies in theaters). The question was "Someday Obsolete, Or Here to Stay?" it will someday become obsolete as we will develop new technologies that will replace it. People want the best quality available so 2K, 4K and 8K will eventually come into the home. Also I can foresee 4K by 2030 in the homes, 8k in the cinemas and new tech like holograms and mind projection being developed.

[BanthaPoodoo]

Originally Posted by Bioevil087

The question was "Someday Obsolete, Or Here to Stay?" it will someday become obsolete as we will develop new technologies that will replace it.

True true... I should clarify though. It's more like obsolete SOON? Yeah everything goes obsolete eventually. I was merely asking what people thought about the current technologys "staying-power". Is it safe to say I won't have to buy Casino Royale again for another 20 yrs (wow)? And I think public theater and home theater are two entirely different beasts. While some folk will always opt for the "ultimate", (and this relates to my OP) will 1080p be the HOME standard for many years to come. If it is then a new format won't be required. The popular format can't exceed what the popular technology can handle, unless you want to change what is popular, which is, of course, always a gamble.

[nelll]

I think HD content will have an evolution so big that 3D Holograms are in their way to your home next century. Seriously is to soon to say but HD DVD and BD will be obsolete too, it's just matter of time for a new technology toarrive. The point is if the people will adopt the newest techy without fear.