Josh Zyber: Don't Fear the Niche

[jed]

Are High Definition discs destined to remain a niche product? In his latest commentary, Josh Zyber asks whether the question even matters.

http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/show/1154

[HD Guru]

Wow - I vehemenently disagree with this article.

Sorry, but HD DVD and Blu-ray are going the way of SACD and DVD-Audio and while it may be great to pick up lots of releases now, you're dreaming if you think that's not going to change.

Marketing solves all and I'm starting to see more and more ads about HD creeping in, more and more pamphlets at major electronics stores informing the consumer, all showing that just a TV is not what you need alone, that you need HD source, whether it be broadcast or Blu-ray/HD DVD.

By having two formats the consumer will not look for an HD player, but the hundreds of thousands of people that have seen the Disney tour DO see a difference and it's because of the clarity, the resolution. Education is key and we're getting better for it, but it's all for nought as long as two competing formats exist.

[glocks out]

Josh, I think you make a good point about the average consumer, but there is hope - your wife obviously saw the difference!

HD Guru also has a good point. The retailers see money is in HD and they're educating customers. But it should would be easier iif the entire industry was able to point to the HD answer without having to explain the differences. When you have to explain something to a customer you have already lost them. You can't "upsell" to a choice between two formats.

As for the video game industry, that's a fine point except gaming is itself a niche market.

[atdm71]

I'm fine with niche. I actually prefer niche. It's nice having something a little more exclusive; higher quality; and out of the hands of the mass market. I'd prefer to have it on one format so I only have one device of lifecycles I'll have to updgrade through, and not two.

As long as the titles keep coming, I'm happy.

[blu-bird]

I can't wait till this war is over. So we can just watch the movies and not have to worry that we will have buy them again in five years.

So how good is the quality of the low price HD DVD player? One thing that isn't changing is the price of the movies themselves much.

[Coaler]

Originally Posted by HD Guru

Wow - I vehemenently disagree with this article.

Sorry, but HD DVD and Blu-ray are going the way of SACD and DVD-Audio and while it may be great to pick up lots of releases now, you're dreaming if you think that's not going to change.

Marketing solves all and I'm starting to see more and more ads about HD creeping in, more and more pamphlets at major electronics stores informing the consumer, all showing that just a TV is not what you need alone, that you need HD source, whether it be broadcast or Blu-ray/HD DVD.

By having two formats the consumer will not look for an HD player, but the hundreds of thousands of people that have seen the Disney tour DO see a difference and it's because of the clarity, the resolution. Education is key and we're getting better for it, but it's all for nought as long as two competing formats exist.

Guru you disagree with EVERYONE. HD and BD are not going the way of SACD both are picking up ground both are selling large titles in better quantities as time goes on. I truly believe studios will continue to release most day and date stuff on the respective formats even if they become niche. Now that being said i definatly agree marketing and education are key if they don't want to become niche. Im definatly seing more adds and now more video rental places are renting both formats. I had my FIRST HD DVD RENTAL from a B&M rental place last night! I definatly have to disagree about the disney tour. Mostly about your # i HIGHLY doubt the total # of people who saw it with even 20% interest in it would be less than 75k. The people on the tour knew almost nothing about BD and couldn't answer some of the question from some of the Joe Blow's (i went to the seattle one) I was severely dissapointed in it.

[HD Guru]

Originally Posted by Coaler

Guru you disagree with EVERYONE. HD and BD are not going the way of SACD both are picking up ground both are selling large titles in better quantities as time goes on. I truly believe studios will continue to release most day and date stuff on the respective formats even if they become niche. Now that being said i definatly agree marketing and education are key if they don't want to become niche. Im definatly seing more adds and now more video rental places are renting both formats. I had my FIRST HD DVD RENTAL from a B&M rental place last night! I definatly have to disagree about the disney tour. Mostly about your # i HIGHLY doubt the total # of people who saw it with even 20% interest in it would be less than 75k. The people on the tour knew almost nothing about BD and couldn't answer some of the question from some of the Joe Blow's (i went to the seattle one) I was severely dissapointed in it.

13,000,000 SACD players and over 4,200 available titles would disagree with you.

Originally Posted by atdm71

I'm fine with niche. I actually prefer niche. It's nice having something a little more exclusive; higher quality; and out of the hands of the mass market. I'd prefer to have it on one format so I only have one device of lifecycles I'll have to updgrade through, and not two.

As long as the titles keep coming, I'm happy.

Therein lies the rub - if it stays niche, the titles disappear.

Studios aren't making money off of titles that sell 25,000 copies.

So far only titles like "300", Casino Royale, Transformers, Spider-man, etc., have stood a chance at being profitable.

[mojo16]

Originally Posted by HD Guru

Wow - I vehemenently disagree with this article.

Sorry, but HD DVD and Blu-ray are going the way of SACD and DVD-Audio and while it may be great to pick up lots of releases now, you're dreaming if you think that's not going to change.

Marketing solves all and I'm starting to see more and more ads about HD creeping in, more and more pamphlets at major electronics stores informing the consumer, all showing that just a TV is not what you need alone, that you need HD source, whether it be broadcast or Blu-ray/HD DVD.

By having two formats the consumer will not look for an HD player, but the hundreds of thousands of people that have seen the Disney tour DO see a difference and it's because of the clarity, the resolution. Education is key and we're getting better for it, but it's all for nought as long as two competing formats exist.

Why is it all for naught if two competing formats coexist? There are many business models that demonstrate multiple competing formats can coexist and be sustainable. How is this accomplished? In exactly the manner you mentioned: education. If the market rejects a format, then it will eventually be replaced by something else, and likely something better. But competition is almost always good for the market, unless people are too apathetic to care about it.

There's nothing wrong with wishing your format of choice will bear out long term, but we must understand that the general public simply isn't educated enough, or even more importantly, too apathetic for any high-def media to supplant current home entertainment. That's just the way it is. Sure, it will eventually change, but we're not they're yet.

[ericede]

Josh is right about people being indifferent. It's the same reason Windows Vista is being beaten by Windows XP. People just don't see the need. However, studios will do to DVD what they did to VHS (and what MS does to all their old operating systems). In time they will stem the flow until all you can buy are HD titles. Eventually everyone will be forced into that niche.

I disagree that both can survive. It's never happened and I've yet to see a precedent.

[rwduke]

What a great article.

I am fine with HD and Blu remaining a niche market. I believe they will slowly grow and keep the formats alive.

My only concern is for catalog titles. They have so far been neglected save for Kubrick and a few other directors. I want older titles, not just new releases.

I also worry about the small independents like Blue Underground, Criterion and so forth. What is holding them back?

Spiderman is great but what about all the 70's and 80's horror flicks? I really hope the diversity of titles will grow in 2008.

Niche market, fine with me. Just keep the titles coming. Additional viewers will get on board with time.

[DaveFletcher]

Don't get me wrong, I usually like Josh's columns: very informative. However, I think he jumped 'bandwith' to discuss something that's outside his area of expertise ... and in doing so comes across more like Neville Chamberlin of WWII fame (remember the appeasement). The format war does matter for two reasons: competition breeds better products at affordable prices for the buying public. I don't buy into Josh's argument that the general public can't tell the difference; HD TV has been with us for more than a couple of years now on both OTA, satellite and cable, and the average viewer can tell the difference. It the wallet, however, that rules. Faced with competing opportunities to view Hi Def, viewers have opted for the cheapest, most easily integrated, methods of viewing Hi Def content. Like Clinton said (and I'm a Republican - LOL!), "it's the economy stupid!" Until recently Hi Def Discs were the least affordable -- that changed with Toshiba's marketing strategy that brings Hi Def within the average viewers budget. What I think seals the deal is that HD DVD is upwards compatible with SD DVD. I always shake my head when I remember purchasing, then re-purchasing, movies as I transitioned from VHS to Laser Disc to SD DVD. The ability to play my SD 'platters' on my Toshiba can't be ignored as a factor (now I pick and choose which titles to 're-purchase' for viewing in Hi Def) -- it doesn't make my library obsolete and I don't have to wonder about which machine to insert a disc in. Unlike Josh, I feel that the average consumer will transition to HD DVD sooner then later, and the 'tea leaves' as the SONY CEO prognosticated seem to point to HD DVD instead of Blu Ray. I almost feel sorry for Sony until I remember that they promoted Betamax rather than run the numbers to understand that VHS would win the contest. Josh is right, Betamax was a superior system -- but it wasn't as affordable. History seems to be repeating itself and I will prognosticate (foretell) that Sony will eventually release HD DVD versions of the movies it controls when the fog of war and the dust of battle subsides.

[Grodd]

Originally Posted by blu-bird

I can't wait till this war is over. So we can just watch the movies and not have to worry that we will have buy them again in five years.

If movie format history is any barometer I suspect I'll be re-buying many of my movies in 5 years no matter what happens. I don't think Blu-Ray/HD DVD's survival will change that . Movies are remastered over and over. I don't see the HD format changing that pattern.
Laserdisc was a niche market. I don't remember loosing out on any titles. I was happy with that for about 10 years, and the format lasted about 20.

[CaptainCanuck]

Good article.I never thought laserdiscs were out for 20 yrs though.

[Htown-D]

Originally Posted by HD Guru

13,000,000 SACD players and over 4,200 available titles would disagree with you.

Studios aren't making money off of titles that sell 25,000 copies.

So far only titles like "300", Casino Royale, Transformers, Spider-man, etc., have stood a chance at being profitable.

I don't believe that at all. The studios have already payed to have the movie mastered in hi definition. The SD DVD is then "dumbed down" for standard def. Once that initial cost is paid for then all that's left is the pressing and packaging. I find it hard to believe they're losing any money on hidef releases when the transfer is already done for home video.....of course maybe im missing something?

[aygie]

good article! Nice read!