Can the PS3 overtake the 360/Wii in 2010

[bbc20000]

n the last month Sony has started one of the greatest comebacks in console history and is now currently riding a wave of positive press and all around warm and fuzzies into the holiday season. Will this momentum continue into 2010, and is it possible that Sony will climb out of the cellar and overtake Microsoft and Nintendo? Totally, well sort of!

It's numbers time kids...

The Playstation 3 launched a full year after it's closest competitor, the Xbox 360. Even though the Xbox 360 could not touch the raw power of the PS3, it's prohibitive price point, lack of quality third party, and online service made it hard for the mass market to swallow. Even with these problems the PS3 still managed to sell a higher percentage of consoles than the Xbox 360 did from each consoles launch. Here is how it broke down...

From launch to August of 2009

Playstation 3: 23.8 million consoles sold over a 33 month period of time. So if we average it out Sony is moving 721,000 consoles a month world wide.

Xbox 360: 31 million consoles sold over a 45 month period of time. So if we average it out Microsoft is moving 688,888 consoles a month world wide.

If Sony managed to stay on track through 2010 without a price cut they would have closed the gap with Microsoft considerably. With the price cut it's a whole new ball game. The PS3 price drop pushed PS3 sales up 71% percent in August according to the NPD group. The 360 also had a price cut but it only increased the console sales from 202,000 to 215,000 for the month of August, once again according to the NPD group. These cuts came rather late in the month so the true indicator will be September's numbers.

These numbers are subjective of course, which I'm sure many 360 fans will point out. I'm using them not to put a big loser label on the forehead of Microsoft, but to illustrate the fact that at this moment PS3 has all the momentum. While Xbox 360 is still selling consistently it is not doing enough to fend off Sony for much longer. With Sony's heavy 1st Quarter AAA line-up it seems even less likely that the 360 will hold on to 2nd place through 2010.

So let's say for arguments sake that the PS3 does manage to overtake the Xbox 360 in 2010, what would Sony have to do to take down Nintendo. Personally I think the Wii is a sham and do not see why so many people enjoy the console. Nintendo is a juggernaut though and whether or not Sony will be able to catch up is entirely up to Nintendo themselves.

Since launch the Nintendo Wii has sold over 50 million consoles world wide, and while their numbers have trailed off a bit this year it is still adding big numbers each month. The major flaw with the Wii though and it's possible achilles heel is that it just is not future proofed enough to stay viable through the next few years. Not making the Wii a HD console was a major mistake, I mean c'mon who doesn't own an HDTV at this point. DLC is another big issue for the Wii due to the fact that it still does not have a viable storage solution for it's users. Couple that with the fact that Nintendo's online service, while free is still pretty shitty takes the gloss off this console pretty quick. The one positive thing that I can say about the Wii is that it comes with wifi and Nintendo isn't trying to sell you a $100.00 adapter. Unless Nintendo comes to the table with a Wii HD and gets their 3rd party support under control I think their sales will continue to drop and Sony will catch and surpass the Wii.

It will not happen in 2010, but 2011 is not outside the realm of possibility so watch your back Nintendo!

http://www.gorillajumpers.com/articles/ps3_overtake.htm

I think that Microsoft must cut prices further or it will loose sales to SONY.
I do not think that software alone will keep microsoft pushing out X360 at the current rate. For starters I think that the more SONY PS3 are sold the harder is for the developers to stay exclusive to Microsoft as it was situation here many times. I think $299 for Elite is a joke. Elite should be $199. I would say even $149. Because we still need WIFI adapter. The fact that MICROSOFT just matched PS3 in price means that there are constrains (namely shareholders) who do not allow for such drastic price cuts. I guess X360 needs to be profitable. RROD has costed microsoft too much.

[james]

How the Hell do you find these off-the-wall websites?

No one is catching the Wii...that is inconceivable.

[Onslaught X]

How the Hell do you find these off-the-wall websites?

No one is catching the Wii...that is inconceivable.

Just watch, we find out that the Wii increasing your chances of getting cancer, and PS3/360 takeover begins!

[Shoeless]

The article answered its own question. It's highly unlikely that the PS3 could cover that much ground in 2010.

At this point though, I'd say that the odds are 60/40 against the PS3 taking second place in the console arms race. I can't really see it happening unless Natal somehow ends up being this gigantic error on Microsoft's part that alienates the existing userbase. I'm fairly certain that the current positions of all the consoles have been cemented for the remainder of this generation, though the difference between second and third place is going to be a lot smaller than I'd previously imagined. Microsoft's got traction now, and the only way they can lose ground to Sony is if they stand still and do nothing, which, of course, they're not going to do. I'd also be willing to bet they're ready to put themselves in the hole even further reducing the 360's price if that's what it takes to stay ahead. Profit is meaningless to them at this stage, it seems. Market/Mind share is more important.

[GizmoDVD]

Not going to happen. Tsunami has turned into a dust cloud.

[Hokis4ever]

Personally I don't think it's going to happen next year or the year after. When all is said and done I thnk the PS3 will either be essentially even or just slightly behind the 360.

They both have fantastic games and that's what sells systems. If anything, there will be A LOT more dual console owners this gen, which is why they'll probably be very close.

[RedRedSuit]

360 unlikely, Wii impossible.

[Snowman851]

Personally I don't think it's going to happen next year or the year after. When all is said and done I thnk the PS3 will either be essentially even or just slightly behind the 360.

They both have fantastic games and that's what sells systems. If anything, there will be A LOT more dual console owners this gen, which is why they'll probably be very close.

It already is slighty behind X360.

[CorruptedDragon]

http://www.gorillajumpers.com/articles/ps3_overtake.htm

I think that Microsoft must cut prices further or it will loose sales to SONY.
I do not think that software alone will keep microsoft pushing out X360 at the current rate. For starters I think that the more SONY PS3 are sold the harder is for the developers to stay exclusive to Microsoft as it was situation here many times. I think $299 for Elite is a joke. Elite should be $199. I would say even $149. Because we still need WIFI adapter. The fact that MICROSOFT just matched PS3 in price means that there are constrains (namely shareholders) who do not allow for such drastic price cuts. I guess X360 needs to be profitable. RROD has costed microsoft too much.

We do? I've had a 360 since launch and have mine wired. Why do I NEED a wifi adaptor? Oh, because the ps3 includes one, so that automatically means everyone NEEDS one.

[james]

It already is slighty behind X360.

I guess that is true in a world where 8 million in the rear could be considered "slightly".

[bbc20000]

Not going to happen. Tsunami has turned into a dust cloud.

I do believe that ps3 sales much more then before. More than Wii or X360. Am i wrong ?

[CorruptedDragon]

I guess that is true in a world where 8 million in the rear could be considered "slightly".

Its sonyfan math, 8 million behind is the new tied or equal!

[Vsions]

In the US probably never. Worldwide maybe by the end of the gen.

[Snowman851]

I guess that is true in a world where 8 million in the rear could be considered "slightly".

For coming out a year later, yes. Although, in EU it was a year and a half later.

[michealo]

worldwide, 360 possible but unlikely.
no chance on wii.