Pachter Predicts October. (Bow to your new Nintendo overlords)

[UraMallas]

Pachter's predictions for those that care.

Wedbush Morgan’s Michael Pachter’s put out his October hardware estimates. Wii’s gone bonkers, apparently.

“We estimate sell-through of 775,000 Wii, 325,000 Xbox 360 and 225,000 PS3 consoles,” he said.

“Our console sell-through forecasts reflect our belief that supplies for Wii hardware increased again this month, with a portion of increased Wii production that started in July finally finding its way to retail in very late in September.

“Similarly, we believe that Xbox 360 demand increased after the September price cuts and October holiday bundles, with some market share gain likely over the PS3. We think that the delayed launch of Little Big Planet likely limited the impact of that game on hardware sales, but expect a spike in November.”


EEDAR numbers are a bit closer and predict big numbers for Fable II.

EEDAR’s put out its US sales estimates for October, predicting a Wii rise of nearly 45 percent to 750,000 units compared to the 519,000 sold in October 2007.

Xbox 360 will take a year-on-year tumble, said the firm, down from 366,000 to 270,000.

PS3, however, should have enjoyed a surge compared to the corresponding previous period, up from 121,000 to 220,000.

Fable II is expected to lead software sales for the month, with 750,000 units estimated.

[Onslaught X]

I don't know if these estimates are going to hold true but if so, that's why I firmly believe that the 360 will be relatively even with last year's holiday numbers.

[miDnIghtEr]

lol... patcher.

[Badger3920]

750,000 fable 2's? Wowzers that would be incredible

[murphjp]

While I figure he's close to right isn't he 1/10 this year?

[WallyWest]

750,000 fable 2's? Wowzers that would be incredible

Much higher than I would expect. I figured 300k tops

[KTA]

Much higher than I would expect. I figured 300k tops

It had a shit ton of marketing. Anecdotal but lets put it this way... when I put my copy in 20 other dudes on my list were playing it to... 90% online were for the first few days.

I've only seen this with a handful of games (halo 3, Gears 1, Gears 2, Fable 2, and Fallout 3 actually).

So based off the marketing and my own observations i'd say it did pretty well.

Not to mention reviews went well especially after everyone was expecting a too human trash fest after 1's ice cold reception months after release.

[Sarang]

Am I the only one who DOESN'T like this guy? He doesn't seem like much of a gamer which puts his marketing opinions in the toilet for me. I mean I really can't stand non-gamers try to talk about this from a sales perspective. My thought is "Fuck off.". I mean they try applying the same economic model as they have for everything else usually. Same stupid cut and paste crap.

[Indy_aka_Rex]

Captain Obvious Predicts... Oh wait, oxymoron.

[kowhite]

Am I the only one who DOESN'T like this guy? He doesn't seem like much of a gamer which puts his marketing opinions in the toilet for me. I mean I really can't stand non-gamers try to talk about this from a sales perspective. My thought is "Fuck off.". I mean they try applying the same economic model as they have for everything else usually. Same stupid cut and paste crap.

Well, the guy lives and breaths the gaming industry. That he's not a huge enthusiast of actually game playing I don't think necessarily equates to an inability to do that type of job. I think we shouldn't confuse that with trying to pretend the guy isn't knowledgeable about the industry and its product. He is. Working in the film industry...I can say...most of the finance people aren't hardcore cinema freaks either. And it's not really a problem...as long as they know their subject matter well. Sometimes it can even be a benefit, as you're less prone to being held back by your own biases and enthusiasm for certain products.

That being said, when it comes to forecasting sales...I think we have to keep in mind, it's still just a forecast. Nobody actually knows the future, no matter how much they study or love the product. To judge Pachter properly, I think it's less important to talk about whether he's right all the time, and more important to discuss whether his reasoning and backup merits the numbers he's putting out there.

[bomba]

I told you guys, Fable was the #2 Xbox franchise and sold heaps.

I wonder how many Wiis were shipped. I love perusing reseller threads and noting the people going "I have 221 wii and 113 fits in my basement, should i get out now", "wiis are in stock all over town, is the ebay market finally dead??", "wii in-stock at amazon for 5hrs, fuck this is bad!".
On amazon, the first time they've stopped scalpers buying them all its been in stock for ages at a time. Anyone who says demand wasn't been artificially propped up is aa fool. Just wasn't Nintendo doing it.

[Sarang]

I'd still like to shove a game down his throat and make him play it personally. Like a whole catalog of recommended product.
edit: All this being said if you're talking from a strictly financial standpoint I want to hear what his thoughts are on the Indrema. If he doesn't see it with the potential of having had the chance of really breaking open the industry then I question him even more.

[BBM128]

Looks like both PS3 and 360 did well for themselves. Good to see healthy sales out of both, given the economic downturn.

[miDnIghtEr]

looks like there's going to be a couple month vacations with those fable numbers. congrats on your win james.

[WallyWest]

Am I the only one who DOESN'T like this guy? He doesn't seem like much of a gamer which puts his marketing opinions in the toilet for me. I mean I really can't stand non-gamers try to talk about this from a sales perspective. My thought is "Fuck off.". I mean they try applying the same economic model as they have for everything else usually. Same stupid cut and paste crap.

Well, if we were to trust sales estimates to gamers, the game industry would collapse. Marketing predictions have nothing to do with playing games and everything to do with business and that is what gamers fail to understand.

Gamers get pissed that Activision puts out so many Guitar Hero products in a year but the business world loves it. Why? Because Activision puts out a game with 90% Aerosmith songs and made more money in a month than any of Aerosmith's albums ever have.

pachter's job isn't to tell us which games are good, but to tell the business world which game companies are making money